RE: The next shoe to drop.... (Full Version)

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DomKen -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/19/2013 8:00:47 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

As usual you are full of shit.

You made a specific claim. That the medical inflation rate has been declining for 8 years. Not that the inflation rate is lower now than it was 8 years ago which is all you've managed to show.

As to your mangling of math, a set of discrete points can fit in a continuous formula. It is a sign that the numbers are actually part of an actual mathematical relationship. For instance 0,0 1,1 and 2,2 fit a continuous function y=x in this case. When you have to apply regression you are searching for the closest fit not that any function will accurately portray those numbers. For instance the formula produced by the regression analysis says the value for year 2012 is 3.08 when the actual value is 3.7. Basically it is inappropriate to use a linear regression on this data. To accurately portray the data requires using a nonlinear regression which is far more hassle than I'm willing to go through after proving you so spectacularly wrong by simply presenting the actual data.




Earth to Ken:

I said nothing about continuous functions. You said it was impossible to have a continuous function describe the data. I went ahead and provided one for you.


The rest of what you said is utter bullshit again - its a lie. You know its a lie. I know its a lie - and any mathematically inclined in the readers know its a lie.


A curve fit r^2 of .94+ is a perfectly fine curve fit. Which means that the line more than adequately defines the function.
While individual data points (and as you know, this most commonly occurs at first and last endpoints) may show skew. But not only does is show that the ending inflation was lower than the beginning, it shows that over the 8 years, the inflation rate has consistently declined. Might you get a point or 2 better with a higher order fit? Certainly.

In other words, the curve fit means the data is adequately described by the function.
The linear negative slope means it has consistently declined over the period.

Learn math man.

Any curve fit you care to find will have a declining slope - indicating, once again a declining medical rate over the last 8 years.

bullshit. A .95+ r2 is a good fit. Below is not. And close don't count.
You even said so
quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
I defy you to find a linear curve fit r = .95 that says I am wrong.

And the R2 isn't 94+% It's 65%.

The correlation coefficient (i.e. r) is -0.8086282744 squaring that (which is what r2 is) is .6538. So it is a terrible match to the data which is exactly what is expected with a linear regression on so few data points with a clearly non linear progression.
BTW how did you square an 8 and expect to get 94?




DomKen -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/19/2013 8:03:19 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: thishereboi
Are you suggesting that CMS didn't have regulations before ACA? Sorry to burst your bubble but they have been doing this type of thing long before ACA was even thought up.

Not sure what the link was supposed to prove. [8|]

The new cost containment procedures are authorized by the ACA. That's the 700 billion Republicans were whining about be taken out of Medicare.

The link proves a regulation that won't go into effect until March 2014 could not be bring costs down now.




Owner59 -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/19/2013 8:06:52 AM)

"Not sure what the link was supposed to prove."

[sm=cactus.gif]




freedomdwarf1 -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/19/2013 8:25:35 AM)

Forget all the maths - it isn't necessary.

DK is attesting that your original post doesn't fit the data.
quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
Actually it hasn't. While the medical inflation rate has been falling consistently over the last 8 years

Regardles of any equation or best-fit curve you want to throw at it, just one single upward movement from any downward trend would invalidate the word "consistently" that you used.

That is where he is coming from.
The maths are irrelevant.




mnottertail -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/19/2013 8:33:00 AM)

quote:


BTW how did you square an 8 and expect to get 94


it appears to be ((Obama ^ 8 * innumeracy) + untutored lies)  that would yield approximately 94  or thereabouts.




Phydeaux -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/19/2013 5:02:38 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: freedomdwarf1

Forget all the maths - it isn't necessary.

DK is attesting that your original post doesn't fit the data.
quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
Actually it hasn't. While the medical inflation rate has been falling consistently over the last 8 years

Regardles of any equation or best-fit curve you want to throw at it, just one single upward movement from any downward trend would invalidate the word "consistently" that you used.

That is where he is coming from.
The maths are irrelevant.




Use of the word consistent is certainly appropriate. Lets say however, that it is not.

Which do you suppose is a bigger lie - that medical rates over the last 8 years have consistently declined - or Factless Ken's assertion that that Obamacare has reduced medical inflation rates?

Especially in light that less than 1% of the insurance market has received obama care - and the provisions of that care kick in in januarry?

Really? Really?

Methinks this is much like pulling a mote out of your neighbors eye when there is a plank in your own.







Phydeaux -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/19/2013 5:04:42 PM)

Oh.. and the news is that more than 100,000 seniors in florida will no longer be eligible for at home health care - (a service proven to have superior results to hospitalization) due to the money being diverted to obamacare.

And more the loss of more than 40,000 jobs as those positions wind down over the next year.




DomKen -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/19/2013 5:46:58 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
Which do you suppose is a bigger lie - that medical rates over the last 8 years have consistently declined - or Factless Ken's assertion that that Obamacare has reduced medical inflation rates?

You do understand the ACA is a lot more than the individual exchanges right?




Lucylastic -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/19/2013 5:54:30 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

Oh.. and the news is that more than 100,000 seniors in florida will no longer be eligible for at home health care - (a service proven to have superior results to hospitalization) due to the money being diverted to obamacare.

And more the loss of more than 40,000 jobs as those positions wind down over the next year.

got a source for that please????


Florida Center for Investigative Reporting
Earlier this year, Gov. Rick Scott said during the announcement of his budget priorities for the year that he supported expanding Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act in Florida.
After that, Scott did little to make the expansion happen and the Florida Legislature quickly turned down the federal money—leaving almost a million Floridians without health insurance.
Now, Scott is doing even less and has stopped voicing his support for Medicaid expansion when asked about it.
The Tampa Bay Times reported last week that:
Gov. Rick Scott refused Wednesday to say whether he still supports expanding Medicaid eligibility to more uninsured and poor Floridians, an issue Democrats are certain to stress during his re-election campaign next year.
Appearing at H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute on Wednesday, Scott for the second time this week publicly dodged questions about his position on expanding Medicaid, the health insurance program for the poor. Though Scott surprised many observers by endorsing expansion earlier this year, he also was criticized for failing to press House Republicans to accept the plan.
On Wednesday, Scott responded to a question about Medicaid expansion by talking about people whose private insurance plans were canceled due to new coverage requirements under the Affordable Care Act.
“Everybody is worried about the politics of the law,” he said. “Here’s my concern: It’s going to impact the cost of health care, the quality of health care and access to health care. Have a great day.”
He turned away as a reporter asked about the 800,000 Floridians who are too poor to qualify for subsidized insurance under the federal law, yet can’t qualify for Medicaid.
According to The Tampa Tribune:
Asked by reporters in Tampa on Wednesday whether he still thinks the state should accept the federal funding available … to expand the program, Scott didn’t answer and criticized the law instead.
Scott said 300,000 Floridians will have their health insurance policies canceled at the end of this year — even though the insurer involved, Florida Blue, has announced there will be no cancellations.
“Here’s our concern about the president’s health care law,” he said. “We have 300,000 people in our state that have been told they are going to lose their insurance at the end of the year. We don’t know what’s going to happen. We don’t know if they’re going to get it. We don’t know what the costs are going to be.
Scott gave essentially the same answer in Tallahassee on Tuesday, saying policies will be canceled and, “That’s the biggest issue we’re dealing with right now.”
Asked Wednesday whether Scott still favors Medicaid expansion, spokeswoman Jackie Schutz said, “Last year the governor laid out what he supported.”
As the 2014 election nears, Medicaid expansion in Florida has gotten increasingly less likely.
A few weeks ago, there were reports that the Florida Legislature was “secretly” working out a deal to accept the billions in federal funds that would pay for the expansion. However, lawmakers denied the closed-door brokering was taking place.
In fact, most experts said the likelihood of Medicaid expansion in Florida remains slim.
If Florida doesn’t expand Medicaid, many of the state’s poorest residents will be left out of the Affordable Care Act, which was created to expand insurance to almost everyone who doesn’t currently have health insurance.
On top of that, the law also phases out funding for hospitals that treat people without insurance. If the state does not accept the Medicaid dollars, it could level a serious financial blow to many of the states’ hospitals.
Most recently, a report found that since Florida taxpayers will be paying taxes toward Medicaid expansion around the country, not accepting these federal funds means taxpayers will see a $5 billion net loss in the state.
However, GOP leaders in the Florida House remain opposed to expanding the money.
Republicans in the Florida Senate have stood behind a plan created by Republican state Sen. Joe Negron that accepts the federal funds. Under his plan, the money would be spent to buy private insurance for everyone that qualifies for Medicaid under the expansion.
In the Florida House, however, Republican members have said even that plan is too uncertain. GOP members have said they don’t trust any plan tied to the Affordable Care Act, which they have said is a fundamentally flawed law.




freedomdwarf1 -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/19/2013 6:03:29 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
Use of the word consistent is certainly appropriate. Lets say however, that it is not.

Actually it wasn't.
Three times the data showed an upward peak during the quoted period.
DK pointed those out to you.
Then you changed your stance to it being lower than 8 years ago.
I don't doubt that.
But DK rebuffed your original statement.
The data is not consistently on a downward trend.

But I know fuck all about the ACA other than from what I've seen on the news over here, your healthcare system needed some radical shake-up because people were dying from lack of it because more and more couldn't afford it.
Whether you'll end up with a 50-50 system similar to Oz or something akin to a complete single-payer style system, or maybe some other hybrid, I haven't a clue.
Obummercare might fall flat on its face in the end. Who knows?
Personally, I think it's a good thing even if the implementation isn't quite how I expected it.
But something radical needed to be tried.
Kudos for Obama for kicking something upfield that might help for the future of many millions.




Phydeaux -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/19/2013 6:19:38 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucylastic


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

Oh.. and the news is that more than 100,000 seniors in florida will no longer be eligible for at home health care - (a service proven to have superior results to hospitalization) due to the money being diverted to obamacare.

And more the loss of more than 40,000 jobs as those positions wind down over the next year.

got a source for that please????

. NPR News. 4pm.

That huge block of text you copied and pasted has nothing to do with the issue, in general. Seniors are covered under medicare (the service being affected).

The poor are covered under medicaid.










Phydeaux -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/19/2013 6:21:14 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: freedomdwarf1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
Use of the word consistent is certainly appropriate. Lets say however, that it is not.

Actually it wasn't.
Three times...


Ah Kudos for ignoring the question. I thereby accept that you prefer motes to planks.





Phydeaux -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/19/2013 6:25:42 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
Which do you suppose is a bigger lie - that medical rates over the last 8 years have consistently declined - or Factless Ken's assertion that that Obamacare has reduced medical inflation rates?

You do understand the ACA is a lot more than the individual exchanges right?



Yep. Its about screwing up the insurance system in America so badly that everyone gets a single payer.
So far the first part - screwing it up .. is well underway.

You know things like -
a titanic -style rollout of the individual insurance.
Delay of hispanic roll out for a year
delay of the income verification
delay of small business portals
delay of group insurance

Of course they did end the Advantage subsidies that competed with AARP's insurance.
They did give huge reinsurance guarantees to the insurance industry for playing ball.
They did add a $63 tax per health policy.
Ostupid - is just like venereal disease - a gift that keeps on giving.




Phydeaux -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/19/2013 10:28:22 PM)

And just on queue (as I predicted in October) they have now illegally declared that those that had their insurance cancelled won't have to pay a penalty.

Seriously libs. You like having a president that makes whatever ruling he wants in contravention of law. Seriously?

Anyway yet another disastrous liberal idea starts to unravel.

The young will not and are not showing up to pay the bills for the old.

And a good number of the 5 million cancellations will not get insurance. Enrollment figures will not hit 25% of what was expected - but the sick and the poor will enroll and government expenses for healthcare will skyrocket.

As will the government reimbursements to insurance companies. Except for the untold misery this is causing - it would be fun to watch the dimocrats implode again.

Obamacare. Ten times more deadly and 100 times more expensive than ObamaIndifference.

Keep obama. I can't afford the change.




Phydeaux -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/20/2013 12:55:41 AM)

AP poll: 4/5 Americans Obamacare will worsen insurance coverage...

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/obamacare-worsens-coverage-ap/2013/12/15/id/541905




mnottertail -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/20/2013 7:19:37 AM)

Yup 1300 plus change people, no link to the poll from another nutsacker propaganda site, thanks, we are laughing.


EE_YUL!!! EE_YUL!!!! EE_YUL!!!


Since this appears that there is an innumeracy problem with most of your posts, this aint gonna do anything else but entertain, it informs nothing. 




thishereboi -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/20/2013 6:31:56 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: thishereboi
Are you suggesting that CMS didn't have regulations before ACA? Sorry to burst your bubble but they have been doing this type of thing long before ACA was even thought up.

Not sure what the link was supposed to prove. [8|]

The new cost containment procedures are authorized by the ACA. That's the 700 billion Republicans were whining about be taken out of Medicare.

The link proves a regulation that won't go into effect until March 2014 could not be bring costs down now.




you claimed that ACA was the only factor in medical inflation.


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

So either the sharp spike last year was caused by obamacare, or the long term downward trend predates obamacare and hence you can't say a damn thing about obamacare lowering medical inflation.

Which is it?

You made a claim. It is not true.

The fact is that over the last 18 months or so the medical inflation rate has dropped dramatically. There is no other factor that except the implementation of the ACA that could account for it.



I pointed out that other things also effect it and have long before it became active. I never said any one regulation did anything.




LookieNoNookie -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/20/2013 7:18:23 PM)

LIARS!!!!! All of you!!!!!

Lying liars lying around!!!!




DomKen -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/20/2013 8:34:43 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: thishereboi


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: thishereboi
Are you suggesting that CMS didn't have regulations before ACA? Sorry to burst your bubble but they have been doing this type of thing long before ACA was even thought up.

Not sure what the link was supposed to prove. [8|]

The new cost containment procedures are authorized by the ACA. That's the 700 billion Republicans were whining about be taken out of Medicare.

The link proves a regulation that won't go into effect until March 2014 could not be bring costs down now.




you claimed that ACA was the only factor in medical inflation.


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

So either the sharp spike last year was caused by obamacare, or the long term downward trend predates obamacare and hence you can't say a damn thing about obamacare lowering medical inflation.

Which is it?

You made a claim. It is not true.

The fact is that over the last 18 months or so the medical inflation rate has dropped dramatically. There is no other factor that except the implementation of the ACA that could account for it.



I pointed out that other things also effect it and have long before it became active. I never said any one regulation did anything.

The regulation you're claiming to have effected the medical inflation rate, that hasn't actually gone into effect yet, is part of the Medicare cost containment stuff in the ACA. Is that really that hard to understand?




thishereboi -> RE: The next shoe to drop.... (12/21/2013 5:36:28 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: thishereboi


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: thishereboi
Are you suggesting that CMS didn't have regulations before ACA? Sorry to burst your bubble but they have been doing this type of thing long before ACA was even thought up.

Not sure what the link was supposed to prove. [8|]

The new cost containment procedures are authorized by the ACA. That's the 700 billion Republicans were whining about be taken out of Medicare.

The link proves a regulation that won't go into effect until March 2014 could not be bring costs down now.




you claimed that ACA was the only factor in medical inflation.


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

So either the sharp spike last year was caused by obamacare, or the long term downward trend predates obamacare and hence you can't say a damn thing about obamacare lowering medical inflation.

Which is it?

You made a claim. It is not true.

The fact is that over the last 18 months or so the medical inflation rate has dropped dramatically. There is no other factor that except the implementation of the ACA that could account for it.



I pointed out that other things also effect it and have long before it became active. I never said any one regulation did anything.

The regulation you're claiming to have effected the medical inflation rate, that hasn't actually gone into effect yet, is part of the Medicare cost containment stuff in the ACA. Is that really that hard to understand?


I never claimed one regulation effected anything. I pointed out that CMS makes regulations that effect it and the ACA isn't the only thing that does. -Then I gave one example of a CMS regulation. So sorry you couldn't grasp that. It seems pretty simple to me. The ACA is not the only thing that effects the medical inflation rate.




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