Nnanji -> RE: AW SHIT, ANOTHER SENSELESS KILLING BY A WIDE-EYED 2ND AMENDMENT NUT (7/20/2016 10:08:05 AM)
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ORIGINAL: vincentML quote:
ORIGINAL: Nnanji quote:
ORIGINAL: Kirata quote:
ORIGINAL: tweakabellequote:
ORIGINAL: Kirata The only hard data that admits of no equivocation is that as the number of people carrying went up in the U.S. the rates of violent crime and homicide went down. That isn't sufficient to establish a causal connection, but it does disprove the claim that more guns on our streets means more violence and death. The data indicates that the number of armed households in the US is decreasing rapidly, due to a fall in the numbers of hunters. So the increased gun sales are to people who already have guns and are interested in expanding their arsenals for whatever reason(s). There are more guns per household in significantly fewer households. It is unreasonable to infer that there are "more guns on the streets" on the basis of this data, unless you wish to advance an argument that gun owners are carrying multiple weapons simultaneously "on the streets". It is also unreasonable to claim that the data "disprove(s) the claim that more guns on our streets means more violence and death". It does no such thing at all. That's a cute dance step, but nobody said anything about gun sales or the number of armed households. And why would anyone? The relevant data for "the number of people carrying" is the number of CCW permits, which increased significantly over the years as more and more states passed "shall issue" carry laws. K. But, it is "unreasonable". Didn't you hear that? Since the publication of More Guns, Less Crime, at least three major reviews of Lott’s work have debunked his findings. One particularly decisive critique, a 2003 study published in the Stanford Law Review, used a superior statistical models and extended the time frame under analysis. With those adjustments, the paper found that the alleged reductions in crime rates evaporated. Another critical analysis, this time issued from 15 of the 16 panel members of National Research Council (NRC), concluded that “with the current evidence it is not possible to determine that there is a causal link between the passage of right-to-carry laws and crime rates.” Then, in 2011, a team of researchers analyzed the NRC panel’s findings and conclude that RTC laws, in fact, increase crime. And these three studies represent only the tip of the iceberg — there are many more cataloging the numerous ways in which Lott has erred. [SNIP] The Texas A&M paper directly challenges the hypothesis that increased numbers of concealed carry permits reduce crime. The study analyzes a decade of data from every county in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Texas, the only states with at least a decade of reported data on permit holders and arrest rates after the implementation of their RTC laws (an explanation of their methodology that, unlike what Lott misleadingly suggests in a rebuttal, is very clearly delineated). Using several statistical models, Phillips found no significant relationship between changes in concealed carry rates and changes in any crime rate. In other words, the study found no evidence that increasing the number of permit holders decreases (or increases) crime. The first mechanism through which permit holders and concealed carry laws could be reducing crime is through direct deterrence, which occurs when an armed civilian uses a gun in self-defense, thereby stopping a crime. The NRA and gun advocates frequently tout surveys conducted by criminologist Gary Kleck indicating that there are around 2.5 million defensive gun uses every year, which would mean millions of criminals being directly deterred from crime. However, widespread defensive gun use is a myth. The survey results used to extrapolate millions of DGUs suffer from a severe false positive problem and present crime prevention numbers that are mathematically impossible. In fact, as we have detailed in previous articles, not only is defensive gun use no more effective at preventing injury than taking no action at all during a crime, but the best empirical evidence to date from the Gun Violence Archive could also only find 1,600 verified DGUs in 2014. This means that 99.936 percent of Kleck’s claimed DGUs are nowhere to be found, despite those very surveys stating that more than 50 percent of DGUs are reported to the police (meaning there should be a record of them). With so few DGUs, it is not possible for permit holders and concealed carry laws to be reducing crime through direct deterrence There is more data to refute your feeble argument about good guys with guns. Feel free to read the entire article. CARRY PERMITS DON'T MEAN SHIT Lol, "The Trace", a site chock full of anti-gun propaganda I've never heard of before. God, it's like whack-a-mole or ankle biting dogs. Little yapping things funded from the dark side to make noise.
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