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RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 7:17:03 AM   
tamaka


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quote:

ORIGINAL: heavyblinker

quote:

ORIGINAL: Edwird

quote:

ORIGINAL: tamaka
There is a threshold where an advantage can become a disadvantage... like when one particular country owns 30% of our foreign debt.


Flip of the coin whether we are witnessing wilful ignorance here or just blind stupidity.

I already posted this, you read it, and then you say something idiotic as above:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States

On November 7, 2016, debt held by the public was $14.3 trillion or about 76% of the previous 12 months of GDP.[5][6][7][8] Intragovernmental holdings stood at $5.4 trillion, giving a combined total gross national debt of $19.8 trillion or about 106% of the previous 12 months of GDP.[7] $6.2 trillion or approximately 45% of the debt held by the public was owned by foreign investors, the largest of which were China and Japan at about $1.25 trillion for China and $1.15 trillion for Japan as of May 2016.[9]

Doing the math; China holds 20.2% of foreign held public debt, Japan- 18.6%.

Which means that China holds - 8.7% - of US public debt, Japan- 8.0%.


Does anyone know if it ever actually hit 30% in the past?
I've heard that it did but it's so hard to get reliable information.




The U.S. debt to China is $1.157 trillion, as of September 2016. That's 30 percent of the $3.901 trillion in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds held by foreign countries. The rest of the $19.5 trillion debt is owned by either the American people or by the U.S. government itself. For more, see Who Owns the U.S. National Debt?

China holds less U.S. debt than the record $1.317 trillion it held in November 2013

(in reply to heavyblinker)
Profile   Post #: 61
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 8:02:30 AM   
heavyblinker


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quote:

ORIGINAL: tamaka
The U.S. debt to China is $1.157 trillion, as of September 2016. That's 30 percent of the $3.901 trillion in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds held by foreign countries. The rest of the $19.5 trillion debt is owned by either the American people or by the U.S. government itself. For more, see Who Owns the U.S. National Debt?

China holds less U.S. debt than the record $1.317 trillion it held in November 2013


http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

Your $1.157 trillion figure is right, but the grand total is actually $6154.7 trillion (see where it says 'Grand Total'?).
So not 30%.

And I see you haven't actually answered why you think this is such a terrible thing. If they crashed the dollar it would be bad, but the only reason they would have to do that is if somebody (say, a wild card American president) slapped a huge tariff on them and ignited a trade war or something.

(in reply to tamaka)
Profile   Post #: 62
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 8:08:05 AM   
tamaka


Posts: 5079
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quote:

ORIGINAL: heavyblinker

quote:

ORIGINAL: tamaka
The U.S. debt to China is $1.157 trillion, as of September 2016. That's 30 percent of the $3.901 trillion in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds held by foreign countries. The rest of the $19.5 trillion debt is owned by either the American people or by the U.S. government itself. For more, see Who Owns the U.S. National Debt?

China holds less U.S. debt than the record $1.317 trillion it held in November 2013


http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

Your $1.157 trillion figure is right, but the grand total is actually $6154.7 trillion (see where it says 'Grand Total'?).
So not 30%.

And I see you haven't actually answered why you think this is such a terrible thing. If they crashed the dollar it would be bad, but the only reason they would have to do that is if somebody (say, a wild card American president) slapped a huge tariff on them and ignited a trade war or something.


Thanks for answering your own question.

(in reply to heavyblinker)
Profile   Post #: 63
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 8:29:38 AM   
Edwird


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quote:

ORIGINAL: tamaka
The U.S. debt to China is $1.157 trillion, as of September 2016. That's 30 percent of the $3.901 trillion in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds held by foreign countries. The rest of the $19.5 trillion debt is owned by either the American people or by the U.S. government itself. For more, see Who Owns the U.S. National Debt?

China holds less U.S. debt than the record $1.317 trillion it held in November 2013


You didn't give a link, but I guarantee your source is wrong on the amount of foreign debt being "$3.901 trillion." But the links I gave sourced their figures directly from the Treasury department. And every other reputable source I've seen says the figure is above $6 trillion as of either September or November 2016.

http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2016-11-16/foreign-holdings-of-us-treasury-debt-down-for-3rd-month

http://www.wbtv.com/story/33727960/foreign-holdings-of-us-treasury-debt-down-for-3rd-month

"The Treasury Department said Wednesday that total foreign holdings dropped 0.7 percent to $6.15 trillion in September, following a 0.8 percent decline in August and a 0.5 percent decline in July."

And from the Treasury itself:

September 2016
Grand Total 6154.7 (in billions, which translates to $6.1547 trillion)



(in reply to tamaka)
Profile   Post #: 64
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 8:31:23 AM   
Edwird


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PS

I see someone beat me to it on the Treasury Dept. link.


(in reply to Edwird)
Profile   Post #: 65
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 8:41:47 AM   
Edwird


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quote:

ORIGINAL: heavyblinker
And I see you haven't actually answered why you think this is such a terrible thing. If they crashed the dollar it would be bad, but the only reason they would have to do that is if somebody (say, a wild card American president) slapped a huge tariff on them and ignited a trade war or something.


Thing is, it's been pointed out everywhere by people well knowledgeable on the subject that China would never go further than making noise about such an action because the dollar would drop precipitously, which would affect economies worldwide, including China's, i.e. it would be cutting off their nose to spite their face. Another guard against it, as if needed, is that almost every country able to (along with the Fed!) would buy the bonds quickly so that there wouldn't be time enough on the open market to lower the price (or the dollar) appreciably.

(in reply to heavyblinker)
Profile   Post #: 66
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 8:48:19 AM   
mnottertail


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if the dollar drops the interest on the bond goes up. China could use that to sop up more dollars, and their inflation would lower.

So, that is one downside. Whether or not they would do that is something that is a risk, but if external factors cause a dollar drop, they are not communists, and will reap the benefit of the interest.

During our financial crisis, Hank Paulson was approached by the Chinese Finance Minister at a Chinese Banquet for the Olympics, and told him that Russia had wanted to collaborate with China and dump bonds on the market, fully breaking the US, and the Chinese Finance Minister declined.



< Message edited by mnottertail -- 11/23/2016 8:49:05 AM >


_____________________________

Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30


(in reply to Edwird)
Profile   Post #: 67
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 8:55:33 AM   
WickedsDesire


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Always take the debt figure - no matter the country x 3-5. will give you true debt/actual liabilities....so the UK 1.6 trillion in reality 5-10 trillion.

Doing the math; China holds 20.2% of foreign held public debt, Japan- 18.6%.

Which means that China holds - 8.7% - of US public debt, Japan- 8.0%


Lower than I thought..are you sure its that low let me look
http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/moneymatters/ss/How-Much-US-Debt-Does-China-Own.htm
fair enough.

(in reply to Edwird)
Profile   Post #: 68
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 8:58:26 AM   
tamaka


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That's strange. Could this be the difference in the numbers?

Estimated foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury marketable and non-marketable bills, bonds, and notes reported under the Treasury.

Maybe the figure from my article was marketable securities only but they didn't specify it. Anyways, i am enjoying learning about some of this... i used to always be so intimidated by this kind of information (sounds so complicated) that i just ignored it all... lol. I just bought a book about Economics .. 'Economics in One Lesson' ... so i will try to educate myself... lol

Here is the link i was looking at. It's a great link... packed full of information.


https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-china-trade-deficit-causes-effects-and-solutions-3306277

< Message edited by tamaka -- 11/23/2016 9:01:27 AM >

(in reply to Edwird)
Profile   Post #: 69
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 9:06:55 AM   
tamaka


Posts: 5079
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: WickedsDesire

Always take the debt figure - no matter the country x 3-5. will give you true debt/actual liabilities....so the UK 1.6 trillion in reality 5-10 trillion.

Doing the math; China holds 20.2% of foreign held public debt, Japan- 18.6%.

Which means that China holds - 8.7% - of US public debt, Japan- 8.0%


Lower than I thought..are you sure its that low let me look
http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/moneymatters/ss/How-Much-US-Debt-Does-China-Own.htm
fair enough.


Your link says the same as mine is saying... China owns 30%


Foreign governments hold about 46% of all U.S. debt held by the public, more than $4.5 trillion. According to the Treasury, the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt is China, which owns more than $1.24 trillion in bills, notes, and bonds or about 30% of the over $4 trillion in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds held by foreign countries.

(in reply to WickedsDesire)
Profile   Post #: 70
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 9:21:05 AM   
heavyblinker


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quote:

ORIGINAL: tamaka


quote:

ORIGINAL: heavyblinker

quote:

ORIGINAL: tamaka
The U.S. debt to China is $1.157 trillion, as of September 2016. That's 30 percent of the $3.901 trillion in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds held by foreign countries. The rest of the $19.5 trillion debt is owned by either the American people or by the U.S. government itself. For more, see Who Owns the U.S. National Debt?

China holds less U.S. debt than the record $1.317 trillion it held in November 2013


http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

Your $1.157 trillion figure is right, but the grand total is actually $6154.7 trillion (see where it says 'Grand Total'?).
So not 30%.

And I see you haven't actually answered why you think this is such a terrible thing. If they crashed the dollar it would be bad, but the only reason they would have to do that is if somebody (say, a wild card American president) slapped a huge tariff on them and ignited a trade war or something.


Thanks for answering your own question.



Except they wouldn't do it because it would hurt their own economy as well, which I explained earlier.

It would only occur as the death blow in an absolutely MASSIVE and absurdly pointless trade war that would also probably involve a real war at some point as well. It's seriously the economic equivalent of a nuclear holocaust, and China has absolutely no reason to do it.

If that's seriously your argument, you need to stop reading so many conspiracy sites and stop seeing China as some sort of irrational, dangerously crazy foreign power. China has problems for sure but hurting itself just to hurt the US without any provocation or valid reason isn't logical on any level.

< Message edited by heavyblinker -- 11/23/2016 9:24:02 AM >

(in reply to tamaka)
Profile   Post #: 71
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 9:28:06 AM   
heavyblinker


Posts: 3623
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Edwird


quote:

ORIGINAL: heavyblinker
And I see you haven't actually answered why you think this is such a terrible thing. If they crashed the dollar it would be bad, but the only reason they would have to do that is if somebody (say, a wild card American president) slapped a huge tariff on them and ignited a trade war or something.


Thing is, it's been pointed out everywhere by people well knowledgeable on the subject that China would never go further than making noise about such an action because the dollar would drop precipitously, which would affect economies worldwide, including China's, i.e. it would be cutting off their nose to spite their face. Another guard against it, as if needed, is that almost every country able to (along with the Fed!) would buy the bonds quickly so that there wouldn't be time enough on the open market to lower the price (or the dollar) appreciably.


I actually mentioned your first point earlier on this thread... didn't mention the second one though.

(in reply to Edwird)
Profile   Post #: 72
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 9:39:42 AM   
tamaka


Posts: 5079
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: heavyblinker

quote:

ORIGINAL: tamaka


quote:

ORIGINAL: heavyblinker

quote:

ORIGINAL: tamaka
The U.S. debt to China is $1.157 trillion, as of September 2016. That's 30 percent of the $3.901 trillion in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds held by foreign countries. The rest of the $19.5 trillion debt is owned by either the American people or by the U.S. government itself. For more, see Who Owns the U.S. National Debt?

China holds less U.S. debt than the record $1.317 trillion it held in November 2013


http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

Your $1.157 trillion figure is right, but the grand total is actually $6154.7 trillion (see where it says 'Grand Total'?).
So not 30%.

And I see you haven't actually answered why you think this is such a terrible thing. If they crashed the dollar it would be bad, but the only reason they would have to do that is if somebody (say, a wild card American president) slapped a huge tariff on them and ignited a trade war or something.


Thanks for answering your own question.



Except they wouldn't do it because it would hurt their own economy as well, which I explained earlier.

It would only occur as the death blow in an absolutely MASSIVE and absurdly pointless trade war that would also probably involve a real war at some point as well. It's seriously the economic equivalent of a nuclear holocaust, and China has absolutely no reason to do it.

If that's seriously your argument, you need to stop reading so many conspiracy sites and stop seeing China as some sort of irrational, dangerously crazy foreign power. China has problems for sure but hurting itself just to hurt the US without any provocation or valid reason isn't logical on any level.


Putting oneself at the mercy of someone else ... having to worry about provoking them in some way or that they might find a reason... is not operating from a position of strength and power.

(in reply to heavyblinker)
Profile   Post #: 73
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 10:18:03 AM   
heavyblinker


Posts: 3623
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quote:

ORIGINAL: tamaka

Putting oneself at the mercy of someone else ... having to worry about provoking them in some way or that they might find a reason... is not operating from a position of strength and power.



You haven't been paying attention at all, have you?

Okay, so I guess after Trump gets back all the debt from China without causing a crash, he can also take their nuclear weapons away. Russia too.

It's the only way to get the power back and make America great again.

(in reply to tamaka)
Profile   Post #: 74
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 10:30:23 AM   
tamaka


Posts: 5079
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: heavyblinker


quote:

ORIGINAL: tamaka

Putting oneself at the mercy of someone else ... having to worry about provoking them in some way or that they might find a reason... is not operating from a position of strength and power.



You haven't been paying attention at all, have you?

Okay, so I guess after Trump gets back all the debt from China without causing a crash, he can also take their nuclear weapons away. Russia too.

It's the only way to get the power back and make America great again.


What a fucking nightmare... geeze.


(in reply to heavyblinker)
Profile   Post #: 75
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 10:45:21 AM   
heavyblinker


Posts: 3623
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quote:

ORIGINAL: tamaka
What a fucking nightmare... geeze.


It's so strange that the people who are nostalgic for when America was great seem to forget that during that time people used to wake up every day and try not to think about how human civilization could come to an end at any moment. And THAT timeframe was actually preceded by a time when people didn't even KNOW that human civilization could have ended at any moment.

This is much better.

(in reply to tamaka)
Profile   Post #: 76
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 10:57:37 AM   
tamaka


Posts: 5079
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: heavyblinker

quote:

ORIGINAL: tamaka
What a fucking nightmare... geeze.


It's so strange that the people who are nostalgic for when America was great seem to forget that during that time people used to wake up every day and try not to think about how human civilization could come to an end at any moment. And THAT timeframe was actually preceded by a time when people didn't even KNOW that human civilization could have ended at any moment.

This is much better.


I need someone to take my frustration out on... lol. ; )

(in reply to heavyblinker)
Profile   Post #: 77
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 11:47:41 AM   
Edwird


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Joined: 5/2/2016
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quote:

ORIGINAL: tamaka
Putting oneself at the mercy of someone else ... having to worry about provoking them in some way or that they might find a reason... is not operating from a position of strength and power.


One can only be at the mercy of another if that other holds the power and the firs does not. You still can't seem to grasp that China would hurt themselves greatly in doing anything drastic re their US debt holdings.

Which also points to the idiocy of 'trade war' tactics. The three top importers of US goods are Canada, Mexico, China, in that order. If Trump thinks he's going to just march into the negotiations say "This is how it's going to be" he is delusional. In every case both sides have sizable leverage, any attempted forced imposition of whatever sort can be countered in kind by the other party. With out having to resort to any bond dumping shenanigans.



(in reply to tamaka)
Profile   Post #: 78
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 12:02:02 PM   
Edwird


Posts: 3558
Joined: 5/2/2016
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quote:

ORIGINAL: tamaka
That's strange. Could this be the difference in the numbers?

https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-china-trade-deficit-causes-effects-and-solutions-3306277

No, it just means that the author can't read a simple table correctly.

quote:

ORIGINAL: tamaka
quote:

ORIGINAL: WickedsDesire
Lower than I thought..are you sure its that low let me look
http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/moneymatters/ss/How-Much-US-Debt-Does-China-Own.htm
fair enough.

Your link says the same as mine is saying... China owns 30%

Foreign governments hold about 46% of all U.S. debt held by the public, more than $4.5 trillion. According to the Treasury, the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt is China, which owns more than $1.24 trillion in bills, notes, and bonds or about 30% of the over $4 trillion in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds held by foreign countries.


Another author who can't read a simple table.

In both cases they got China's holdings amount right, but the amount for total foreign holdings wrong. The About.com author had $4.5 trillion for the figure. That was nowhere in the table at all.


< Message edited by Edwird -- 11/23/2016 12:04:56 PM >

(in reply to tamaka)
Profile   Post #: 79
RE: Trade between the US and China over past 30 years - 11/23/2016 12:03:15 PM   
thompsonx


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Joined: 10/1/2006
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ORIGINAL: tamaka



Putting oneself at the mercy of someone else ... having to worry about provoking them in some way or that they might find a reason... is not operating from a position of strength and power.


The only time amerika operates from a position of strength and power is when dealing with the extreemly weak.
Russia-powerful amerika acts like a pussy.
China- powerful amerika acts like a pussy.
Viet nam- not powerful amerika acts like a tiger.
N,korea- not powerful amerika acts like a tiger.
Cuba- not powerful amerika acts like a tiger,
Nicaragua- not powerful amerika acts like a tiger.
Hawaii- not powerful amerika acts like a tiger.
Samoa- not powerful amerika acts like a tiger.
Spain- not powerful amerika acts like a tiger.
Iraq-not powerful amerika acts like a tiger.
Afghanistan-not powerful amerika acts like a tiger.

(in reply to tamaka)
Profile   Post #: 80
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