caitlyn -> RE: are we really afraid? (9/12/2006 10:35:20 AM)
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It's not that other factors aren't worth considering. They have value and can have a huge impact, when applied on top of military strength. Looking at Poland in 1939, they certainly had everything they needed to resist the Germans, other than a modern army. History gives many examples of similar scenarios. A little closer to home, we can examine Vietnam. Certainly there was massive discontent in America, which had a huge impact of the policies of the United States. All that was built on top of heavy casualties suffered at the hands of the North Vietnamese. It serves as an excellent example of a powerful intangible that came in to play, because of military might. America could win each individual battle, but lost so many men doing it, so as to make the entire affair seem Pyrric. Does anyone honestly believe that protests at home would have had as strong an impact, if casualties had been very low? Which takes us to Iraq/Iran, and what has been "won" by the terrorists (we need a new term, as in truth, the west may be the terrorists in some minds). Any death is tragic, obviously, but the stark truth is that the casualty count isn't high enough for that intangible to have any meaning to a wide number of people. This may sound bad (bet I get flamed for this), but more Americans die on the highways in Houston every month, than die in Iraq. Again, that isn't meant to justify any death ... it only illustrates that the "terrorists" do not have sufficient military might to add meaning to their intangibles. If Iran (for example) pushed the issue tomorrow, the United States military would simply move in and crush them. Again, not to justify it ... only to explain it for what it is. So, no, I don't see these terror groups and winning anything, They haven't won and will not win. They are left with few options. The greatest card they have is to disrupt the oil supply to the west. This action would very much piss off all the fellow Muslim states that are making a fortune off oil. I don't like what the west is doing in the Middle East, but can't be objective and say that I see a "winning strategy" in anything done by the other side.
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