NeedToUseYou
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ORIGINAL: samboct
Need to use you-
Actually biofuels are competitive at $3 a gallon or so of diesel- biogasoline may be a little tougher, or we're going to transition to more diesel in the short run. Fleets are already doing E85 with no problems. I don't think gas prices are going to climb to $10/gal- at that price there are all sorts of alternatives that become economical- including solar. But really- we can grow fuel- it's working quite well- look at Brazil as an example- or Germany (see the above referenced post.) However, as SUVs get more expensive to operate- there are fewer of them, and that makes it easier to design lighter, more ecnomical cars- if you don't have to worry about Bambi meets Godzilla on the road so our fleet mileage can easily increase. Better batteries would let hybrids hit 70-80 mpg, so there's plenty of technology out there. I'm not worried about the technology- I'm worried about the political leadership- nothing says that the US has to maintain its preeminent place in the global economy- and companies like Lockmart are already planning on the US losing leadership. (seems like with their able assistance.)
Sinergy- probably true- but it's a dispersion issue. There's no way to dump a teaspoon of anything in a river so it's evenly dispersed. Thus what happens is a few people get a massive dose and keel over instantly, but most folks get nothing and are fine. Or they take a shower with it- we really don't drink that much of the fresh water we consume. It's why the idea of a terrorist dumping some WMD in the drinking supply really doesn't worry me much. In a Coca Cola plant though- since there's lots of processes that will mix things well- that's another matter. On the bright side- it would take a significant volume- like 55 gal drums of something nasty- and odds are would cause talk sooner or later.
Sam
You can grow fuel, but you can't grow enough fuel, to replace a large percentage of the oil fuel. Brazil is different they can grow different crops than we can, sugar cane is better than corn for example. But the fuel needs of Brazil are also tremendously less than the US. Bio fuels are a piece but not nearly the whole picture. Also I watched a documentary about biofuels and the problem is also one of transportation of the biomass to be converted to biofuel as it takes energy to transport the big heap of corn or whatever to the processor. Of course you could overcome that by building even more plants(and one company in there was "developing a Mobile processor", so you could take the processor to the site instead of moving all the mass to the processor. But that is yet to be really put to the test. I assume that is what you are talking about, if you are talking of running off straight vegetable oil type vehicles, there just isn't enough of that to offset oil use.
Here's my view in a nutshell. Yes, it could be overcome, but I have zero percent certainty that it will be overcome in a reasonable time frame. My view is we will continue producing biofuel, solar, wind etc... but at current increases everything I've read or watched indicates it will lag behind the shortfall. So, to me that indicates. That regular gas, or biofuel, will spiral up in price, then over time as alternatives spread, and old vehicles etc... are replaced, the price will drop off. It really doesn't matter if a person can make fuel for 2.00 dollars a gallon if they can't make enough for everyone at 2.00 dollars a gallon then someone is going to be willing to pay more for it, and thus the price rises. The cost of making veggie fuel is irrelevant, if someone is willing to pay 10.00 dollars for it, then it's ten dollars. No large scale producer is going to base the sale price on cost of production, it's going to be based on demand.
We could switch to electric cars, but they still don't have the range , so I doubt an entirely electric solution would work for most. Hybrids are probably here to stay. Which is good as it helps. But that still doesn't even begin to address the industrial consumption of oil used to produce everything else, from cosmetics, to Vcr covers.
I'm pretty good at this guessing game stuff. (one year playing the stock market straight and not one bad trade), if that applies. But at the rate of improvement, we aren't going to get there. Just because there are a few hybrids at market compared to the 100 non-hybrids isn't going to impact anything. So, effectively we are right now, as far as vehicles are concerned and those driven on the road at like a 1 percent conversion, maybe. The average lifespan of a vehicle including used purchases, is 13 years. So, if you are looking at things a decade out, we will not be significantly converted to fuel efficient vehicles by then. Unless a super duper unlikely event occurs. You also can't just take all the old vehicles and scrap them, because many can't afford anything but a used vehicle, and the energy required to make a new vehicle versus driving a older one offsets the energy savings.
I'm excited by the new alternative fuels, but the sad fact is it is a huge huge huge effort to replace our oil entrenched infrastructure. It can't happen in a decade. That simply is not enough time. That is not to say it won't start to happen. That is were the problem lies, the time it takes to change versus the time left in "cheap" oil.
< Message edited by NeedToUseYou -- 4/22/2007 12:25:26 PM >
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RE: Global Warming and Oil - 
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