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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 6:46:16 AM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

and I am unclear here, but the overall picture is important, not fractionalized debate that is compartmentalized so that one can make apparently true sentences, but the whole is not barbara (I am quite sure you know the meaning of barbara as it is used in logical argument).

Where is the indication of the troop surge.  We know it is occuring and has been for some time, someones numbers are inchoate, whos I am unclear on.

Ron  


Ron,

I guess you'll have to educate me on what "barbara" means in a logical debate.

As far as "fractionalizing" the debate, and as far as "inchoate" figures, you'll have to clarify what you mean as well.  I gave my sources, and the math to get the percentage is pretty straight forward.

How one interprets the figures, and what other figures someone uses, and their relationship to anything else is grist for the mill.

Personally, I think one could make a good argument that the level of violence increased almost as soon as the new strategy was announced in order to attempt to cause US media (and the public) to discount the possiblity of success, and then stayed relatively higher as the new strategy went into effect - as was more or less anticipated.

The question in my mind, then, is what happens to the level of violence over the next few months.

I think that someone could (and probably has) do a more in-depth analysis of figures by including total casuality figures (not just deaths), along with number and type of attacks.  The Brookings report I linked to may have those figures, but I just glanced through it to find the end strength figures for my own purposes.

Firm


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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 6:57:57 AM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
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Status: offline 		there is no indication of a troop surge in the numbers, therefore the numbers appear to be imperfectly formed (inchoate in this specific vein).

How might one account for that? That is the question I ask.

If there is no accounting for that, then the numbers could only be considered as magazine use (magazine use:read it, wipe your ass and throw it as unedifying).

Ron    



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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 7:17:55 AM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

there is no indication of a troop surge in the numbers, therefore the numbers appear to be imperfectly formed (inchoate in this specific vein).

How might one account for that? That is the question I ask.

If there is no accounting for that, then the numbers could only be considered as magazine use (magazine use:read it, wipe your ass and throw it as unedifying).

Ron    




Well, I don't know who first used the word "surge", as it is misleading to me as well.

However, the numbers do show:

Month      Troops
Jan-07       132,000
Jul-07        160,000
Change:      28,000

Whatever you want to call it, it's an overall increase in boots-on-the-ground.

My figures show that as a 21% increase of previous troop strengths, prior to the announcement of the new strategy.

Firm

< Message edited by FirmhandKY -- 8/6/2007 7:19:33 AM >

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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 7:20:02 AM   
kittinSol


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Status: offline 		It's admirable to try and find positive things in a war. But I'm curious! What do you mean by 'we might be winning'? What's the victory made of, in your opinion (if there is one at bay, something you haven't convinced me of... yet.)

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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 7:21:10 AM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: kittinSol

It's admirable to try and find positive things in a war. But I'm curious! What do you mean by 'we might be winning'? What's the victory made of, in your opinion (if there is one at bay, something you haven't convinced me of... yet.)


Read this.

Firm


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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 7:30:08 AM   
mnottertail


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Status: offline 		yeah, we have had those (or nearly those numbers) in 03 04 05 as we poured in troops from our guard and reserves, now, since most people do 3 year hitches, and many are sick of rotating in and out for their 4th or 5th time some of them, it is apparent that the martial spirit is waning.  I see those numbers surge in a month in earlier years, and now it is taking 6 months to get them (a fuckin lousy 28000 troops) back up to pre-surge levels? 

The surge is a purely bullshit political ploy.

That is what those numbers tell me.

Ron   

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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 7:31:46 AM   
SimplyMichael


Posts: 7229
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Status: offline 		The Democrats do not hope for the defeat of America, they have been right every step of the way.  Iraq was a bad idea, poorly planned, poorly led (at the top) and was only marginally in any way in America's self interest at the begining and now no mater what happens it will be counter to our self interest.

George Bush's father knew this.  That is why when the Shia and the Kurds rebelled instead of the minority Sunni (Saddam's and the Baath parties ethnic makeup) he backed off Saddam and allowed Saddam to massacher them.

The best we could have hoped for is a free Iraq run the Shia with close ties to Iran but not quite run by crazies and with something of a feeling of debt to us for putting them in power.  Because Bush has done such a disasterious job of planning and executing the war, there is no chance of that.

Instead we will end up with a radicalized Shia population run by the more extreme elements all of whom blame America for the destruction of their nation and the death of many of their loved ones.  Pretty fucking bitter "victory" and that is the BEST we can hope for.

If we fail because of the incompetence of the Bush administration we will have a cesspool of violence that is a training ground not just for al Queda but for the various radical Shia groups as well and a reminder (real or imagined) to every Muslim in the world that the West hates them and seeks to kill and destroy them. 

Oh, and Afghanistan as well as Pakistan my go the same way again because of incompetence on a level that should be unimaginable but unfortunately is all to real.  The "win" in all of this SHOULD have been a stable Afghanistan with a vibrant and thriving economy the envy of all the Middle East and a shining beacon of what the West wants for Muslims.  It would have stablized Pakistan, empowered moderate Muslims everywhere, undermined and marginalized Al Queda.

Oh well, troops are cheap and Exxon and the Saudi'as aren't paying so who cares what it costs America.

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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 7:49:29 AM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

yeah, we have had those (or nearly those numbers) in 03 04 05 as we poured in troops from our guard and reserves, now, since most people do 3 year hitches, and many are sick of rotating in and out for their 4th or 5th time some of them, it is apparent that the martial spirit is waning.  I see those numbers surge in a month in earlier years, and now it is taking 6 months to get them (a fuckin lousy 28000 troops) back up to pre-surge levels? 

The surge is a purely bullshit political ploy.

That is what those numbers tell me.

Ron   


*shrugs*

I'd prefer more troops as well.  However, your baseline is from the time that it was decided that more troops were needed, and that number is 132,000.  I suspect that a 21% increase in the number of troops would be counted as "significant" to most other people.

I dispute your contention that you've seen such an increase in a single month, other than perhaps in the ramp-up to the conflict.  The numbers simply don't support your claim.

As far as it being a political ploy ... I think the term "cynic" might apply to your views on anything having to do with the military, especially as it pertains to the war in Iraq.

A pity.

Firm

edited for spelling.


< Message edited by FirmhandKY -- 8/6/2007 8:01:49 AM >

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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 7:52:30 AM   
domiguy


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Status: offline 		What a bunch of crap....Over 70 % of Iraqi citizens want the US troops out within 6 months to two years....90% of Sunnis support attacks on US troops...
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/home_page/165.php
.So why do we continually think we are being attacked by al qaeda when it also might be the Sunni's?  It goes back to the Michael Yon report....The Iraqi citizens  don't care that we have lost over three thousand....They don't care that tens of thousands of our troops have been wounded....They want us out....Democracy....No thank you.  We don't want your brand....Is there anything more evident that we cannot be successful than when the people you are supposedly trying to help don't want it....What an unbelievable clusterfuck!!!

If we are going to stay it is time to be honest....Let's call it an invasion...Let's make it clear that we are staying until we achieve an Iraq that is "US turban style."  Let's stop bullshitting that we are there for the people of Iraq....To bring them a democracy that they don't want.

If we want to be successful we should consider dropping a tv into every Iraqi home...It should weigh around a ton, be bullet proof and have a self enclosed battery pack....It cannot be turned off....It will run MTV and Gap commercials and the Playboy channel 24/7.....Then we might finally see some results!

We should annihilate every Iraqi that crosses our path....They don't want us there...You are either with us or against us.

We are never going to place our form of democracy in Iraq....This is a lie...Our soldiers are dying for nothing.

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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 7:59:22 AM   
farglebargle


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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

Here. Maybe we can talk more intelligently with some easy statistics.

End strengths are from here (page 28).

Deaths are from here.




Last year YTD ( Jan-Jul) = 397

This year YTD ( Jan-Jul) = 656

You call that success in *any* way, shape, or form?



_____________________________

It's not every generation that gets to watch a civilization fall. Looks like we're in for a hell of a show.

ברוך אתה, אדוני אלוקינו, ריבון העולמים, מי יוצר צמחים ריחניים

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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 8:03:02 AM   
farglebargle


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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

quote:

ORIGINAL: kittinSol

It's admirable to try and find positive things in a war. But I'm curious! What do you mean by 'we might be winning'? What's the victory made of, in your opinion (if there is one at bay, something you haven't convinced me of... yet.)


Read this.

Firm




"So, it's really a political question now, and arguments about the exact dates of what troops arrived, and who said how long and when you should start "tracking" any supposed "6 month" window are all really superfluous questions."

Answered in your very same post. When GWB announced his plan on January 10.



_____________________________

It's not every generation that gets to watch a civilization fall. Looks like we're in for a hell of a show.

ברוך אתה, אדוני אלוקינו, ריבון העולמים, מי יוצר צמחים ריחניים

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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 8:04:35 AM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: domiguy

What a bunch of crap....Over 70 % of Iraqi citizens want the US troops out within 6 months to two years....90% of Sunnis support attacks on US troops...
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/home_page/165.php
.So why do we continually think we are being attacked by al qaeda when it also might be the Sunni's?  It goes back to the Michael Yon report....The Iraqi citizens  don't care that we have lost over three thousand....They don't care that tens of thousands of our troops have been wounded....They want us out....Democracy....No thank you.  We don't want your brand....Is there anything more evident that we cannot be successful than when the people you are supposedly trying to help don't want it....What an unbelievable clusterfuck!!!

If we are going to stay it is time to be honest....Let's call it an invasion...Let's make it clear that we are staying until we achieve an Iraq that is "US turban style."  Let's stop bullshitting that we are there for the people of Iraq....To bring them a democracy that they don't want.

If we want to be successful we should consider dropping a tv into every Iraqi home...It should weigh around a ton, be bullet proof and have a self enclosed battery pack....It cannot be turned off....It will run MTV and Gap commercials and the Playboy channel 24/7.....Then we might finally see some results!

We should annihilate every Iraqi that crosses our path....They don't want us there...You are either with us or against us.

We are never going to place our form of democracy in Iraq....This is a lie...Our soldiers are dying for nothing.


Are you addressing me in particular, about my views, or are you just using this as an opening to give your opinions about everything you've heard from all sources?

Firm


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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 8:07:30 AM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: farglebargle


quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

quote:

ORIGINAL: kittinSol

It's admirable to try and find positive things in a war. But I'm curious! What do you mean by 'we might be winning'? What's the victory made of, in your opinion (if there is one at bay, something you haven't convinced me of... yet.)


Read this.

Firm




"So, it's really a political question now, and arguments about the exact dates of what troops arrived, and who said how long and when you should start "tracking" any supposed "6 month" window are all really superfluous questions."

Answered in your very same post. When GWB announced his plan on January 10.




As normal, your posts above are without context other than from your own narrow ideological point of view.

You are entitled to your opinions.  Even when they don't make much sense.

Firm

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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 8:10:43 AM   
farglebargle


Posts: 10715
Joined: 6/15/2005
From: Albany, NY
Status: offline 		I guess if you want to characterize holding people accountable for their actions in that way, then that's your choice.

Again, how do you call the deaths of 656 American Troops THIS YEAR-TO-DATE vs. the deaths of 397 LAST YEAR-TO-DATE any sort of "success"?

The policy you advocate is DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE for the ADDITIONAL DEATHS of 259 kids this year vs. last year.

Last year you were killing 1.8 troops a day,

This year you have killed, on average 3.12 of America's servicemen every day.

Again, what school do they teach that to be any sort of "Success"?



< Message edited by farglebargle -- 8/6/2007 8:20:30 AM >

_____________________________

It's not every generation that gets to watch a civilization fall. Looks like we're in for a hell of a show.

ברוך אתה, אדוני אלוקינו, ריבון העולמים, מי יוצר צמחים ריחניים

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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 8:20:28 AM   
FirmhandKY


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Status: offline 		fargle,

First, if you wanted to play with the numbers, I'd look at man-days for the total number of troops for a certain percentage of casualities, and see if the absolute numbers really were significant.  You might even do numbers about the type of mission or "exposure-hours" in patrols versus time in secure bases, and see if the amount of exposure to the population was giving you more or less casualities per time exposed to the Iraqi public.

Then there is the whole "results" things that you'd have to deal with as well. 

I'm not sure you can make a quality answer to either question until several more months have gone by, and you can start to quantify other results across the country, and see if the overall "quality of life" (which can get you into mucho arguments on the details of that definition as well) has an upward or downward trend.

Sometimes, it's just darkest before the dawn. 

The possiblity exists either way.  You (and many others) choose to not believe it.  And you may well be correct.  I'm  not sure yet.

Firm


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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 8:21:28 AM   
domiguy


Posts: 12952
Joined: 5/2/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

quote:

ORIGINAL: domiguy

What a bunch of crap....Over 70 % of Iraqi citizens want the US troops out within 6 months to two years....90% of Sunnis support attacks on US troops...
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/home_page/165.php
.So why do we continually think we are being attacked by al qaeda when it also might be the Sunni's?  It goes back to the Michael Yon report....The Iraqi citizens  don't care that we have lost over three thousand....They don't care that tens of thousands of our troops have been wounded....They want us out....Democracy....No thank you.  We don't want your brand....Is there anything more evident that we cannot be successful than when the people you are supposedly trying to help don't want it....What an unbelievable clusterfuck!!!

If we are going to stay it is time to be honest....Let's call it an invasion...Let's make it clear that we are staying until we achieve an Iraq that is "US turban style."  Let's stop bullshitting that we are there for the people of Iraq....To bring them a democracy that they don't want.

If we want to be successful we should consider dropping a tv into every Iraqi home...It should weigh around a ton, be bullet proof and have a self enclosed battery pack....It cannot be turned off....It will run MTV and Gap commercials and the Playboy channel 24/7.....Then we might finally see some results!

We should annihilate every Iraqi that crosses our path....They don't want us there...You are either with us or against us.

We are never going to place our form of democracy in Iraq....This is a lie...Our soldiers are dying for nothing.


Are you addressing me in particular, about my views, or are you just using this as an opening to give your opinions about everything you've heard from all sources?

Firm



Firmy, It is just an overall statement...I have no idea who in the fuck World Public Opinion are....But the poll shows similar results to one taken about a year ago.

The Iraqis want us out.  Shouldn't this just cut us all to the quick?  Why are we sacrificing our lives?....It's all been a lie.

I think everyone should agree that it is time for honesty.....We don't give a fuck about the Iraqis....We never have.

This is an invasion....We are there only for our own governments reasons and rational.  Doesn't this approach make more sense?

it definitely won't help in trying to sucker the little guy in to going overseas and getting made into pulp....It helps when he can see kids getting beheaded and hoping to help the poor suffering  women and children of Iraq fight for a freedom that they are dying for.  When they make it clear that the American little soldier guy is no longer welcome and that 50% support attacks on him....he should be saying,.."Well fuck that! I'm not going!!!"

Your life is a precious commodity....Bush will sell your life for nothing....So when you are blown to a pulp and your heart thumps out it's last beat, you better be thinking about how you have helped the Iraqi people achieve freedom....Cause you are dead and you have died for nothing.

< Message edited by domiguy -- 8/6/2007 8:22:43 AM >

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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 8:27:11 AM   
farglebargle


Posts: 10715
Joined: 6/15/2005
From: Albany, NY
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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

fargle,

First, if you wanted to play with the numbers, I'd look at man-days for the total number of troops for a certain percentage of casualities, and see if the absolute numbers really were significant. You might even do numbers about the type of mission or "exposure-hours" in patrols versus time in secure bases, and see if the amount of exposure to the population was giving you more or less casualities per time exposed to the Iraqi public.


If you think such analysis relevant, please, by all means, provide us with them.

quote:



Then there is the whole "results" things that you'd have to deal with as well.


Iraqi Parliament is on vacation for the next couple of months.

Malaki's Coalition government has fragmented with the withdrawal of the majority sunni bloc.

Hmm... What was the goal of the whole "New Way Forward?"


quote:


By improving security, the plan's short-term aim is to create time and space for the Iraqi government to bring rival Shi'ite, Sunni and Kurd factions together in a process of national reconciliation, American officials say. If that works within the stipulated timeframe, longer term schemes for rebuilding Iraq under the so-called "go long" strategy will be set in motion.


That was it, right?

Well, it failed, and THAT's why they call it GAMBLING.

And the Dead Kids? They have no "Quality of life".. They're DEAD.

And they're dead because YOU did not want them to come home and stay alive.

I've been calling for their return since before they deployed.



< Message edited by farglebargle -- 8/6/2007 8:29:53 AM >

_____________________________

It's not every generation that gets to watch a civilization fall. Looks like we're in for a hell of a show.

ברוך אתה, אדוני אלוקינו, ריבון העולמים, מי יוצר צמחים ריחניים

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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 8:30:10 AM   
FirmhandKY


Posts: 8948
Joined: 9/21/2004
Status: offline 		domi,

We have several very distinct disagreements about very basic concepts and goals. 

In other words, we are starting with very different worldviews, so it would be difficult to simply try to refute your opinions.  I think I'd be willing to try to walk you through some of my beliefs, as you have displayed an ability and willingness to engage in open and honest discourse.  But any such thread would be almost instantly - and constantly - innudated by partisans who have shown little or no inclination for an open-minded discussion of such issues.

I will say that it's really not important to me whether or not the Iraqi's "wish" us to be there.  What is important is what actions they take to get us "out".

Results, not feelings, are what is important.

Firm


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RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 8:32:47 AM   
farglebargle


Posts: 10715
Joined: 6/15/2005
From: Albany, NY
Status: offline 		What's important is "Why are we there in the first place?"

The Iraq-AUMF was fraudulently obtained.

There is no Congressional Declaration of War.

There is no "Clear and Present Danger"

and

There is no Amendment to the Constitution authorizing the provision of security for any foreign nation.



_____________________________

It's not every generation that gets to watch a civilization fall. Looks like we're in for a hell of a show.

ברוך אתה, אדוני אלוקינו, ריבון העולמים, מי יוצר צמחים ריחניים

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Profile   Post #: 119
RE: Bad News From Iraq: We Might Be Winning - 8/6/2007 8:34:00 AM   
FirmhandKY


Posts: 8948
Joined: 9/21/2004
Status: offline 		fargle ... I know it's hard for you .... but really ... can't you even entertain the possibility of an open mind?

Nahh ... that feeling of utter certainty and righteous indignation that you have is probably just too comfortable for you ...

Firm


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