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shallowdeep -> RE: Gas!! What will be your next Vehicle? (5/2/2008 10:45:34 PM)
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Assorted comments:
A Prius can easily do 60mph, and even 100mph+. In my opinion it's quite adequate for most people but, with that that said, it doesn't have the same performance of a sporty car like the MazdaSpeed3. Apart from the first few seconds of acceleration from rest (where the electric motors can actually deliver superior torque) the Prius isn't a match. If someone places value on extra, high rpm acceleration, the Prius won't be as attractive to them. That's not to preclude the possibility of a sporty hybrid, but the target markets tend to be different and I'm not aware of any presently available.
quote:
ORIGINAL: DomKen
the TCO of a hybrid would be lower unless gas prices came down drastically
From a purely economic standpoint hybrids can make sense (and I'm in full agreement they're not just hype) - but it's not always a clear cut case. Assuming a hybrid can boost mileage by an average of 1.4x, the miles you need to travel in 10 years (about the life of the battery pack) to break even can be expressed as
x = 3.5 * (conventional mpg) * (hybrid price premium) / (mean cost per gallon of gasoline used over next 10 years)
Take the Civic. The conventional version has around 30 mpg and the hybrid version has a $5640 premium over the conventional Civic LX, or a $4590 premium when you factor in the $1050 tax credit. So, if you assume $4/gallon for gas over a decade you'd need to drive around 120,000 miles to break even. That's something some people do, but not everyone - nor does it factor in what you could have done over ten years with the money you save upfront.
Of course four dollars a gallon, even adjusting for inflation, is likely to be a distant, fond memory in 10 years. At $5/gallon, you'd need 96,000 miles. At $6/gallon, 80,000 miles, and so on. Until we actually start hitting those prices though, it probably does not make economic sense for everyone to buy a hybrid right now.
My personal feeling is that the energy independence and environmental benefits should factor into buying decisions for those who can afford it, but I realize not everyone cares enough, or is in the economic position, to make that a factor. Ultimately fuel efficiency needs to make financial sense for those people. In a larger sense, if everyone were to switch to hybrids, the cost of gas would stay lower and everyone would benefit - but it's hard to base a personal purchase on macroeconomic theory, sound as it may be. I fully support government subsidies of fuel efficient cars to help realize those macro benefits, though.
Plug-in vehicles, like a converted Prius or the Volt, presently may make more economic sense than straight hybrids if your driving is mostly short trips. The midpoint of my electrical cost estimates was around $2/gallon equivalent, which is likely going to be at least a 50% savings shortly (if it isn't already). The savings probably easily cover the relatively minor expense of a conversion for an existing hybrid (or the costs of adding it to new designs).
I'm not, however, completely sold on the idea of switching over to plug-ins en masse. If a sizable percentage of people start using plug-in hybrids, electricity costs will go up, affecting not just your transport energy expenses, but the entirety of your electricity bill. Even accounting for mostly off-peak usage, I think there really is the potential to overburden the grid - resulting in even more fossil fuel plants being built when ideally we should be working to replace the ones we already have with alternatives. Finally, if your electricity is coming mostly from coal plants, the environmental benefits are debatable. There may be some carbon savings (my rough calculations indicated perhaps 20%) but a probable increase in particulate emissions. If the electricity mixture is cleaner, it becomes a better option, though.
quote:
ORIGINAL: Smith117
The Volt will be out by the fall of '09.
No, it won't. It's nice to see American auto makers finally doing something on the fuel efficiency front, but GM isn't exactly fast tracking it, despite the PR. The most recent statement from Chevrolet:
quote:
Although we haven't said exactly when the Chevy Volt will come to market, we've set our internal targets to complete the vehicle by the end of 2010. The specific date depends on the results of rigorous battery testing that's going on right now.
Not exactly inspiring confidence. There have also been some statements that it will be "in the showroom" by the end of 2010, but I doubt you'll actually be able to buy one until sometime in 2011. Even then, GM indicated that the first year of production is likely to see only 10,000 vehicles. Part of that is due to the expected costs having risen to $48,000. GM still seems to want to hit the sub $40,000 mark (sub $30,000 seems to be out), but is only willing to take limited losses. As the batteries become cheaper, they'll be able to ramp up production. I'll be happy to be proven and wrong and see a $30,000 Volt in 2009, but as even GM says it isn't happening, I wouldn't hold my breath.
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