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USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/7/2008 8:16:59 PM

cyberdude611

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Remember there is still 59 days till election day, and 4 debates, and these are opinion polls, so take them for what they're worth. But if these numbers are correct and hold, the Democrats may find themselves in serious trouble and have a lot of work to do.

The McCain convention bounce appears to be in full force right now and has broke through the 50% threshold. A Gallup/USA Today poll shows McCain/Palin has recieved a large convention bounce and now leads Obama/Biden 54-44% in a poll taken Friday through Sunday with a sampling of 1,022 likely voters and an margin of error of +/- 3 points.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm

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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/7/2008 8:19:14 PM

Sanity

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That poll was among likely voters, correct?

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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/7/2008 8:31:12 PM

Thadius

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Yes that poll was likely voters.

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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/7/2008 8:35:32 PM

cyberdude611

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity

That poll was among likely voters, correct?

Yes. And registered voters were 50% McCain, 45% Obama.

Zogby also has the same numbers....McCain lead 50-45.

The Gallup tracking poll and the Rasmussen poll may be delayed because of their rolling average methodology. If you remember it looked like Obama had zero bounce after his speech but then suddenly he jumped up on Monday and Tuesday. We are now seeing the same with McCain.

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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/7/2008 10:13:52 PM

proudsub

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AOL did an unscientific poll and last i saw McCain was leading 55-38% with over 685,000 responses.
http://news.aol.com/elections/article/where-do-you-stand/162777?icid=200100397x1209077666x1200490190

< Message edited by proudsub -- 9/7/2008 10:15:20 PM >

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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/7/2008 10:25:03 PM

Sanity

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And Obama's been outspending McCain like crazy too. It seems like every day I've been seeing articles about how Obama raised X million dollars in X number of days, or in a day.

Is he just mismanaging his campaign, I wonder?

quote:

ORIGINAL: cyberdude611
Yes. And registered voters were 50% McCain, 45% Obama.

Zogby also has the same numbers....McCain lead 50-45.

The Gallup tracking poll and the Rasmussen poll may be delayed because of their rolling average methodology. If you remember it looked like Obama had zero bounce after his speech but then suddenly he jumped up on Monday and Tuesday. We are now seeing the same with McCain.

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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/7/2008 10:28:02 PM

Thadius

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity

And Obama's been outspending McCain like crazy too. It seems like every day I've been seeing articles about how Obama raised X million dollars in X number of days, or in a day.

Is he just mismanaging his campaign, I wonder?

quote:

ORIGINAL: cyberdude611
Yes. And registered voters were 50% McCain, 45% Obama.

Zogby also has the same numbers....McCain lead 50-45.

The Gallup tracking poll and the Rasmussen poll may be delayed because of their rolling average methodology. If you remember it looked like Obama had zero bounce after his speech but then suddenly he jumped up on Monday and Tuesday. We are now seeing the same with McCain.

Bribes and kickbacks are expensive.... errr I mean. He is helping Hillary pay off her debt, right?

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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/7/2008 10:53:02 PM

cyberdude611

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Some of it was poorly spent. Democrats eyes got way too big and they started wasting a lot of money in places they had no chance in winning. They were spending money in Idaho, Georgia, South Carolina, and Utah for crying out loud! Either they thought they had a chance at a Reagan-like landslide OR they could bait the GOP into spending money to defend those safe red states.

Either way, the GOP didnt bite on it. Like Nepoleon once said, "Never interupt your enemy while he is making a mistake."

From the rumors Im hearing, the Democrats have abandoned that "50-state strategy" and now have taken a plan very similar to John Kerry's plan in 2004.

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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/7/2008 11:34:55 PM

Hippiekinkster

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Any day now, I expect the RNC to bomb the Reichstag and then blame it on Communists.

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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/7/2008 11:43:30 PM

Hippiekinkster

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I have been watching the politics of this country since around 1968, and it has never been so evident to me that the right is nothing more than frightened white people who fear sharing power. They will do whatever it takes to hold on to power, and the fate of the country doesn't matter one whit.

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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/8/2008 12:36:34 AM

meatcleaver

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Perhaps because of her newness to the scene many Americans haven't really got to know what she stands for and are merely attracted by her image at the moment. Apart from her bizzarre beliefs, she has only had a passport for two years and has only been to four countries Canada, Iraq, Kuwait, and Germany. With America's recent experience of another foreign policy retard in power, maybe they might think twice when it comes to voting for another. As one pro-American commentator said on BBC World Service the other day 'There are not many Europeans more pro-American than me and she makes me want to hide in a hole.'. Though he did add 'Americans so love a maverick, even when the maverick is patently mad.' We'll see.

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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/8/2008 1:44:15 AM

cyberdude611

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Obama is new on the scene...look how long that buzz is lasting.

I think the Europeans wanting Obama has more to do with the fact that he's a leftist that can be molded by European politics while McCain is center-right and more likely to do what he wants without influence from Europe. Because Obama has absolutely ZERO foreign policy experience. We dont know what his plans are for foreign policy because he wont tell us. So how does Europe know what he's going to do? They don't.

Europe for the most part is left to center-left depending on the country. Of course they will favor the more leftist candidate.

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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/8/2008 3:30:36 AM

meatcleaver

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quote:

ORIGINAL: cyberdude611

Europe for the most part is left to center-left depending on the country. Of course they will favor the more leftist candidate.

Obama isn't a leftist by European standards, no democrats are, to Europeans, Democrats are centre right. Obama is liked in Europe because he comes across as being reasonable, with a balanced view of the world. Creationist moralists like Palin who would deny children sex education and women of the right to make choices over their own body, are seen here as loony tunes and indicate her unrealistic view of life and of the world in general.

In someways I would see a McCain-Palin administration as a positive because it would be an incentive to pro-American Europeans (particularly Brits)to reassess their relationship with American militarism and realize they are European first, western second. Many Europeans see a western alliance as best for everyone but not at any price, especially when it has an administration that is set on destablizing the region.

The idea that Europe can mould an American President is rediculous. Europe would prefer someone it could work, not someone it has to view as just another potential aggressive power it needs to keep at arm's length. Obama fits the bill which is why he is prefered here.

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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/8/2008 5:03:26 AM

FirmhandKY

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FR:

As Thadius and I have been saying for a while ... absent some really juicy scandal, McCain is going to win this one handily.

Palin was just his insurance. And maybe his door into a landslide.

The left will go crazy. The media will go crazy, and pull out all the stops. You've never seen so much BS as will come out over the next couple of months, but some may begin to "see the light" (such as MSNBC).

I thought the media's crap last election cycle was bad, but the stuff is so blatant this time (US magazine for example, and MSNBC - just two off the top of my head) that it will do just the opposite than what they wish and expect.

I suspect the debates will be so overwhelmingly highlight the differences that there is little that the media will be able to do, however. I just can't see Biden overcoming Palin, and Obama without a scripted speech will be eaten alive by McCain .... just as he was in Saddleback.

Sure, the cool-aide drinkers won't believe it ... and they'll be in such a frenzy that "average Americans" will be shaking their heads ....

Very interesting election cycle.

Firm

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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/8/2008 5:20:53 AM

FirmhandKY

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Just as an example of the kind of stuff that Obama will likely screw up in an open debate, here is an extract from an interview he made:

Link:

Mr Obama still had to deal with issues about his own views and exotic background, disclosing that he had once considered joining the US military and then acknowledging that, when asked last month at an evangelical forum if life began at conception, he had been too flippant in replying it was “above my pay grade”. He said yesterday: “What I intended to say is . . . I don’t presume to be able to answer these kinds of theological questions.”

He also repeated a previous charge that Republicans were seeking to smear him over his religion, alleging that they had been “very good at throwing rocks and hiding their hand” when discussing “my Muslim faith” – before swiftly correcting himself to say “my Christian faith”.

I thought this was hilarious ... and typical.

Firm

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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/8/2008 5:21:27 AM

Sanity

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She stands for much the same that Reagan stood for, and he won rather handily once people got to know him. It's bizarre that people have forgotten how popular Conservatism is.

Well here's a little reminder for you, courtesy of USA Today:

quote:

McCain-Palin becoming Palin-McCain?

COLORADO SPRINGS — The banners, buttons and signs say McCain-Palin, but the crowds say something else.

"Sa-rah! Pa-lin!" came the chant at a Colorado Springs rally on Saturday moments before Republican nominee John McCain took the stage with Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a woman who was virtually unknown to the nation just a week earlier. The day before, thousands screamed "Sa-rah! Sa-rah! Sa-rah!" at an amphitheater outside Detroit.

<snip>

"Real change with a real woman," read one sign at a Wisconsin rally. "Hurricane Sarah leaves liberals spinning," cried another.
McCain has sought to portray Palin as a bulldog who will help him "shake things up" on Capitol Hill.

Washington, he said Saturday, is "going to get to know her, but I can't guarantee you they'll love her."

"We do!" came a cry from the crowd. At a rally in Albuquerque later, McCain acknowledged the juice she has injected into his campaign.

"The response to her has been overwhelming, it's been incredible," he said.

(Click here to read the full article)

quote:

Perhaps because of her newness to the scene many Americans haven't really got to know what she stands for and are merely attracted by her image at the moment.

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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/8/2008 5:35:14 AM

meatcleaver

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"Real change with a real woman," read one sign at a Wisconsin rally. "Hurricane Sarah leaves liberals spinning," cried another.

I always thought change and conservatism are a contradiction in terms.

No doubt she does have her fans amongst pro-life, moralist, no sex education, puritan conservatives but they aren't the only Americans that have the vote.

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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/8/2008 5:37:20 AM

bipolarber

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It's Monday morning. The Today Show just ran the latest polls on likely voters and found that the supposed "lead" has now shrunk to 6%, and it seems to be dropping. Since things are back to within margin of error, really it seems likely that the bumps on both sides are quickly disappearing... and both conventions are a wash....

The polls, (if you give them any creedence to begin with) pretty much show things are going right back to where they were before the conventions took place.

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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/8/2008 7:15:37 AM

TheHeretic

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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

As Thadius and I have been saying for a while ... absent some really juicy scandal, McCain is going to win this one handily.

            You aren't the only ones, Firm. I'm not ready to call it yet, but I certainly think the Dems are blowing the game.

         I had a very interesting conversation with an old friend last night, who makes his living doing this stuff. According to him, people are working very hard right now to get a specific handle on the 'lie factor' in the polling data. How many people who say they will vote Obama are going to get in the booth, and not do it? His advice was to automatically shift 3 points in any numbers that come out.

       Oh. And Palin scares the hell out him.



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RE: USA Today poll: McCain/Palin have 10-point lead - 9/8/2008 7:15:40 AM

FirmhandKY

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quote:

ORIGINAL: bipolarber

It's Monday morning. The Today Show just ran the latest polls on likely voters and found that the supposed "lead" has now shrunk to 6%, and it seems to be dropping. Since things are back to within margin of error, really it seems likely that the bumps on both sides are quickly disappearing... and both conventions are a wash....

The polls, (if you give them any creedence to begin with) pretty much show things are going right back to where they were before the conventions took place.

So ... uh ... like ... you believe "The Today Show" to be supportive of real journalism?

Suuuurrrrreeee ....... (backs quietly away from bipolar).

Firm

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