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RE: The race factor - 9/24/2008 10:51:28 AM

Taboo4Two

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Thadius,

I admit to having only scanned the document but it was my impression that, in his closing statement, the writer feels that the Wilder effect has disappeared. Although he does say that it is entriely possible that, with the right circumstances, it could resurface. Perhaps this election has those circumstances.

I had the same thought as you about the second poll and wondered what others might say.

Thanks for the always insightful comments.

Domino

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RE: The race factor - 9/24/2008 11:38:21 AM

Alumbrado

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Thadius

quote:

ORIGINAL: Taboo4Two

There is a great deal of current research that shows the "Bradley / Wilder Effect" to be a thing of the past. http://people.iq.harvard.edu/~dhopkins/wilder13.pdf

In the most recent primary elections Obama consistently outperformed projections in his battle with Clinton. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html

Obama might lose because he is black and McCain might lose because he is old. Predjudice is alive and well in 2008.

Domino

Afternoon Domino,

Did you read the study that you linked to first? They found that there is a definite Bradley (Wilder) effect, especially when it influential. They suggest that the Whitman effect is a myth.

Secondly, I would suggest that the study in the second link is faulty. One simple fact is left out of that study, it was a study of the current Dem primary, Bradley and Wilder both won their primaries, thus the theories based on their names are still intact. Also it doesn't take into account that there were 2 "minorities" running in the primaries, which makes the comparisons even more suspect.

Just my thoughts on it,
Thadius

The Wilder effect was quite simply that people lie to pollsters, pollsters lie about results, and ever since Dewey 'defeated' Truman, it has had more to do with polls being unreliable, than with race..

People will use race, religion, gender, age, push-poll results, doctored photos, gossip, and any other bit of agit prop they are fed to rationalize their voting choices, but pollsters and political statisticians have a vested interest in obfuscating the fact that they can no more measure 'attitudes' or 'performance' in advance, than any other purported fortune tellers... its just that the other fortune tellers don't have quite so much money at stake in keeping the fraud going.

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Post #: 62

RE: The race factor - 9/24/2008 12:23:20 PM

Thadius

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Afternoon Alumbrado,

Excellent points. Indeed there is a vested interest in adding validity (even if it is just in appearance) to the accuracy of such predictions.

Money seems to be a very big motivator in such an interest.

I wish you well,
Thadius

_____________________________

When the character of a man is not clear to you, look at his friends." ~ Japanese Proverb

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Post #: 63

RE: The race factor - 9/24/2008 6:57:31 PM

corysub

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic

Here are some polling results the Dems maybe should have thought of. Story on Stanford study and AP/Yahoo poll.

The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004 — about two and one-half percentage points.

This poll is a "set up" by people who are in the democrat camp. According to some commentators, and I don't have a link, they contributed to the Obama campaign, Moveon.org, and other democrat groups. They are just paving the way for the reasons should Obama lose November...pointing towards racism and, in this case, racism within the democrat party. Is there racism? Of course...among and between all skin colors. However, it's not as if we have candidates of equal stature and experience. If McCain loses it wil be because of the Charismatic eloquence of Mr. Obama, a man with no defined record of achievemen. If Obama loses, than it will be blamed on "racism", since the man is a the "second coming".

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Post #: 64