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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 12:41:52 AM   
Hippiekinkster


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I figure if CL is agin it, it's probably the greatest thing since sliced bread.

He calls Weatherizing "pork". I call it creating jobs, while at the same time reducing our dependence on foreign energy, while at the same time lowering peoples energy bills, so they have more disposible income.

I was just up in my kitchen marvelling at the big brains that thought it was a good idea to route air conditioning ducts through the attic, which in the summer can achieve temps af up to 125F. Yeah, that's brilliant. We have the reverse in winter, where ducts that need to achieve a temp of, say, 85F, are routed through the same attics which, because of some goofy mis-design assumptions about condensation, are open to 20F exterior temps.

I have yet to meet a builder who can think this shit through.

SO weatherizing can save the country a whole lot of money. By "country" I mean real people, not corporations.

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(in reply to celticlord2112)
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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 2:27:07 AM   
ScooterTrash


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The whole term "creating jobs" sounds somewhat iffy to me, especially when it comes from a government entity. Creating incentives for private business to "create" jobs makes much more sense. If the jobs are just make-work by/for the gov't, to accomplish gov't projects, it's doomed from the start since that would involve 80% management and 20% labor (just an out of the air statistic based on road crew observations). Tax breaks, for private business, would probably have a decent impact, freeing up cash flow, but the breaks needed tied to items/projects that promote domestic spending. Tax breaks for the general population would also have a positive impact, providing the breaks also promote domestic spending. In a nutshell, freeing up cash is a good idea to kick start the economy, but it needs to be spent in the US if it is to boost the US economy. Giving tax breaks and then allowing the money to be spent on imported goods is counterproductive in my opinion. In other words, incentive checks, bad idea, incentive breaks for "X" reason, good idea. Granted, it's a global economy, but right now is a period of "cover thy ass" and we best be doing some covering.   

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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 7:18:36 AM   
DarkSteven


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quote:

ORIGINAL: celticlord2112

quote:

PE Obama wants to create at least 2.5 million jobs, rebuild roads and crumbling
bridges, modernize schools, and assist doctors and hospitals in computerizing
records, energy and weatherizing projects, and also expand unemployemnt and food stamp
benefits.
  • Road/Bridge repair--Good idea.  President Pothole gets this one right.
  • Modernize schools--whatever the fuck that means, which makes this a money pit (from President Pothole to President Sinkhole).  Either that or it's doublespeak for pork.
  • Assist Doctors and Hospitals in computerizing records--slight problem here: doctors don't WANT computerized records (have had a number of them as clients over the years....they love the whizbang diagnostic stuff, but electronic medical records actually offend a great majority of them).  Every state has had projects to do this, federal laws have been revised to allow hospitals to buy the expensive software and GIVE it to the docs, and EMR implementations still move slower than Congress.
  • "Energy projects" -- aka, "pork".  Bad idea.
  • "Weatherizing projects" -- aka "more pork."
  • Expand unemployment and food stamp programs -- adding to the welfare state, but this is ultimately a small potatoes next to the rest of the money-burning, so sure, why not?



I could not agree more.

Note CL's last bullet point, which frightens me... We are actually beginning to think of publicly funded bailouts as the natural course of things.  This is absolutely WRONG, and may eclipse the Iraq war and shredding of the Constitution as Bush's worst single legacy.


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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 7:56:47 AM   
Mercnbeth


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~ FAST REPLY ~
To get a glimpse of the future of the US you only need to look to California. Years of 'boom times' led to years of Statewide pork spending and social engineering programs. Bureaucracies were built with automatic increases. None have ever succeeded to fundamentally change the problems they were created to solve. Then the 'bubbles' started to burst. The 'tec bubble', the 'dot-com' bubble, and now the 'real-estate bubble'. There is no new bubble being inflated.

California ranks number 1 in sales tax, income tax, business tax, and has the lowest threshold for the maximum rate for the income tax, $42k. 'Sin taxes', (cigarettes, liqueur, etc) rank in the top 10. It has the highest fees for businesses and individuals on such things as motor vehicle registrations. There is nothing left to tax.According to the Governor the State will be unable to pay their bills in 3 months.

In this environment, instead of cuts the call is for more tax.

The result is, people who can leave are leaving or have plans in the works. It's so bad there is a negative population growth of criminally employed illegal aliens. At some point, the perfect weather, the beaches, the views; just aren't worth it. A big part of the problem is that the people being targeted to be "patriotic" and pay more - are saying good-bye. Sure, the academic socialists living in the hills of Malibu are still out there, pushing to continue economic redistribution. Having 8 figures of net worth, the impact isn't as dramatic. The "let them eat cake" isn't directed to the poor in CA, it's directed to the middle, high middle class. The problem is, unlike the poor, they are mobile. Looking at the migration trends, they are going to Arizona, Texas, and Nevada; similar weather, a bit more moist in Texas perhaps, but without the tax obligation.

The failure of CA can be traced back to one main component. The State is the largest employer. Included county and local municipalities, and the plurality approaches 50%. It seems PE Obama has the same goal for the US. With the ability to print money, it won't go bankrupt like CA, but it won't succeed either. There is no government bureaucracy that has ever succeeded. There is no "emergency" tax that has ever been repealed. Look no further than the Federal Income Tax as an example of a "temporary tax" that never went away.

The PE's plan sets the goal to have the population of the county employed by the country. The nationalization of parts of the financial industry and two thirds of the auto industry that we've just seen is a cornerstone of the 'plan'. The failures of more businesses and industries after the first of the year will make the past six months seem like the 'good old days'. It takes a desire for knowledge, but a close look at pending deliveries will determine that not one retailer is placing orders to restock their shelves after the Holiday season. There is no confidence that anyone will be able to purchase anything.

What has to be understood that when the  first word of any 'plan' is spend, the word's definition should be taken as 'TAX'. Until the first word is cut - there is no solution presented. However, it does disclose a plan whose logical progression is that everyone works for the government and fewer choices are available. Unless of course you are living in the Malibu hills or part of the ruling class.

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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 9:36:15 AM   
samboct


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Seems to me that many of the posters here have some very selective memories when it comes to history.  The idea of tax cuts, belt tightening etc. was tried by Herbert Hoover (a Republican president) for several years and failed miserably.  Unemployment reached its highest values in 1933, the year FDR took office, of approximately 25%.  By 1940, unemployment had fallen to about 15%.  I suspect that if we'd use the same metrics to measure unemployment nowadays, we're probably at the 15% level now.  Note that since Reagan, unemployed workers are those who haven't worked in the past 6 months- not people looking for work.  Unemployment numbers also don't take into account those people who are underemployed- looking for more work, but unable to find it.  This is a bit of statistical sleight of hand to make the picture appear rosier than it is-adopted in 1982 when Reagan took office.

Uncle Sam is the largest customer on the planet.  Much of what he purchases are weapons and I will wholeheartedly agree that weapons manufacturers are some of the worst examples of bloated mismanagement on the planet.  One of the ways Obama plans on freeing up some money to pay for these projects involves canceling some weapons systems.  There are several where the axe could be productively employed.

However, one of the assumptions amongst some of the posters here that surprises me is the dichotomy between us and the government.  If we have a democracy- then WE are the government.  And by the comment that our government can't do anything right, you're effectively saying that WE can't do anything right.  Well, if you guys are correct- then we're done, because we certainly have long outlived our usefulness- shoot us now and put us out of our misery.  Somehow I like to think of me and my friends as competent though.

Putting a man on the moon- a government project.  Developing an electronic circuit that could withstand hundreds of gravities- a government project funded by ARPA.  Back in the 1960s, GE was still advertising vacuum tubes as the best thing for electronic circuits.  Funny how they bet wrong- the IC has made vacuum tubes obsolete for most applications- but the driving force was missile and artillery shell guidance systems.  The internet- another DARPA project.  Most vaccines- developed for the Army under government contracts and in government labs. 

Seems to me that people here have gotten used to incompetent government projects, and have conveniently forgotten the successful ones.  Obama looks like he's lining up a team where we might have some successful government projects for a change.  Steven Chu has long pushed for alternatives to fossil fuels to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and he's probably as smart as Werner von Braun (who really was a Nazi SOB).  The "free market" isn't going to replace fossil fuels without an external push- and Obama's plans look to provide that push. 

Saying that replacing fossil fuels is an expense is like saying installing fiber optic cables for the internet is an unnecessary expense.  We're going to create an industry- this builds wealth- it doesn't destroy it.  People who've made fortunes in oil and coal may find they have less money at the end of the day- but I won't shed a tear for them.  And rather than send money offshore for our energy, we can use the money instead to build things like solar power plants, wind turbine farms, geothermal plants, etc.

In short- I think Obama's on the right track, and the more people pulling in this direction the better.  Because if we don't charge off and fast, our economy is going to sink.

To all who think reducing taxes are a magic bullet- I work in a field where there are lots of folks trying to start companies.  Strangely enough, taxes aren't mentioned as an impediment- but lack of capital, lack of qualified people, lack of infrastructure all are.  The reality is that in starting a business- taxes are irrelevant since you're not going to be making profits for awhile.  Taxes are a concern of mature businesses- and those are the folks that want "business as usual."


Sam

(in reply to Mercnbeth)
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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 10:02:20 AM   
Mercnbeth


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quote:

I suspect that if we'd use the same metrics to measure unemployment nowadays, we're probably at the 15% level now. 

Unemployment IS 6.7%. (Source: http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/biz/ratechart.asp )
A common application of rhetoric is that when references don't substantiate your opinion - call them "suspect". Of course, tracking people and reporting them was much easier in the 30's than it is now. In the 30's getting reported as unemployed was an embarrassment. Now - you get rewarded with sympathy and benefits. So of course more people hide their status now as opposed to 1930. Yeah - right! "Underemployment"? What's that, not getting what you're 'worth'. Try self employment and get exactly what you're worth. For some - it may mean dealing with a pay cut.  
quote:

Seems to me that many of the posters here have some very selective memories when it comes to history.  The idea of tax cuts, belt tightening etc. was tried by Herbert Hoover (a Republican president)
However, there is no political concern to anything posted as there is in your reply. Missing of course is rebuttal, not about the 1930's but of TODAY in CA, where the experiment in social engineering and economic redistribution is taking place.
However, in line with the attempt; would a more appropriate reply be that anyone supporting this plan is subject to drinking the koolaid?
quote:

Seems to me that people here have gotten used to incompetent government projects, and have conveniently forgotten the successful ones.
Name one. The moon? Any travel plans in your future? The highway system? How successful is something that requires automobiles to get around instead of mass transportation? Better yet, why build any more which would contribute the problems that Al Gore and his religious followers of global warming site as the "most critical problem facing the world today"?

Then again, it isn't (because TODAY is the issue not 70 years ago) "projects" that doom California its bureaucracy. How about pointing to one of those 'successes'?

However, the question remains; who will pay? How much more taxation can the private sector afford? In CA they've maxed out. Where's the 'plan' behind the 'Obama Plan'? Your silence on that issue is consistent with PE Obama's. As is the lack of any response to any of the references.

No - you are NOT the government and neither am I. 'Special Interests' are the governing force in the State of CA. All indications are pointing to the same being in case in Washington. The biggest 'special interest' being the idea that ALL will soon be government employees or work for government owned businesses and projects. Since you are such a history buff, perhaps I don't need to point out where that was last tried.

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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 10:05:16 AM   
BlackPhx


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Nothing is likely to be an answer for the past 50 years of mismanaged funds..and nothing is going to be an immediate cure for our problems. That said, there are things that need to be done, programs that need to be continued and changes that need to be made.

  1. Our Dams, Levees, Bridges and Roads need to be rebuilt, repaired, and or replaced. They are deteriorating and collapsing. Our housing market is tanked and a great number of people drawing unemployment right now are refugees from that market and it's support markets. These include, wire, heavy machinery, concrete, steel, roofing, HVAC and other manufacturers all of whom have had to lay people off. It will put back to work, architects, drafters, construction workers, clerical people and common laborer's not to mention truckers, caterers (food wagons), restaurant workers (salaries mean occasionally eating out) and perhaps if all goes well, paying off debts by those people now facing potential bankruptcy in the future.  (So far not a bad deal in my eyes)
  2. Modernizing our schools. Many of them are aging out, inadequate to serve the number of children we have these days. Our schools are over crowded, under funded, ill equipt to prepare young people who bear the burden of Bushes spending in their future to do so. The first budgets to be slashed when states have to shave budgets are our schools. Teachers are out of pocket on basic school supplies each year because they can't get the supplies they need. They struggle to teach with outdated books in classrooms that hold 40 kids instead of 25 without aides to help them. If you want your kids to get a good education and can't afford a charter or private school..you are better off home schooling them. Athletic programs are now being cut because they have already shaved the Band, Art and computer classes to the bone. Teachers salaries in many parts of the country are frozen and if they are good, and have skills they are looking to other markets that pay a salary and leaving teaching. If we DON'T invest in our childrens' future, WE won't have one. As it is our Ums attend school half the time that the rest of the world does and after school programs are barely holding on leaving our Um's little supervision as parents work. Do we really need to ask why more and more of them are getting in trouble and entering the juvenile justice system?
  3. Medical records. A tricky one as you balance privacy against healthcare and perhaps fewer mistakes lowering malpractice insurance. Many drugstores are now offering electronic prescription services to Dr.'s. A wonderful idea if they work, since it can help to lower the risk of misinterpretation of a Dr.'s scrawled script, and harmful drug interactions. Will they use it? I hope so. The same could be said for computerizing medical records. I have mine available through medic alert as I have several ailments that those in the field have to be alert to, this includes my medications, who to contact for permissions, who my Dr.'s are, everything. If I am unconscious it could save my life. A simple phone call or login gets them all of this when I am unable to give them the information. I hope Doctors begin to take advantage of such programs, but I doubt they will until they can see the advantage to them or their patients. 
  4. Energy Projects. We HAVE to get off the oil standard. Even if we cannot get our automobiles off it, we need more sustainable renewable sources for the generation of electricity and heat. Wind and water turbines, solar, methane, garbage. Each of us generates approximately 4.5 lbs of waste a day, garbage included. That is a lot of waste to just leave laying around if it can be turned into heat and electricity instead of land fill and water contaminants. Not all of it can be recycled into usable consumer products, but it can fuel turbines and supplement oil. http://www.sltrib.com/ci_11053078 , http://inventorspot.com/articles/microwave_turns_plastic_oil_5383 and http://discoverymagazine.com/2006/apr/anything-oil, With the credit crunch I somehow don't see the banks funding these projects, maybe we should as a country.
  5. Weatherization. I am not sure how this would work, but I do know I have heard more than enough complaining about how FEMA doesn't and people should move away from weather dangerous areas. Unfortunately there's aren't any. Las Vegas got snow this year and I suspect things are not going to get better weather wise for a LONG time. Through a program here in Florida, Master and I were able to afford replacement windows for our house that are High Impact low E. Without the program we would not have been able to afford it for a long time, BUT, by replacing them we are able to lower our heating/cooling bills lessening our drawn on resources, lower our home insurance and the risk of actually having to use it to replace our home, raising rates in the state as they point to our claims and others as a reason for it..and put a crew of window makers, and installers to work for a short period and keep a small company going another month. To qualify your income had to be under a certain level so it was not available to the rich but to the middle and lower class and the house had to need the improvement. A good program and one that has helped a lot of people fortify their homes against inclement weather including the elderly. In a country that still has people freezing to death in city apartments or displaced by floods, tornadoes, etc. strengthing structures and weatherproofing them is still cheaper than replacing them.
  6. Expanding unemployment and food stamps. If the jobs aren't there, they aren't there, but people need to eat, pay rent etc. We have a large homeless population as it is.. Psychiatric patients "turfed", those who were one paycheck away from disaster, those who have exhausted unemployment while trying to find work. Not everyone is sitting on unemployment, welfare or food stamps willingly. Sometimes to work, you have to take drastic cuts in pay and food stamps can help make up that shortfall as well. A family of four cannot survive on a 6.25 an hour job, even if both mom and dad are working 2 jobs.
  7. Tax Moratorium. Wonderful on paper, how practical in practice? Those taxes also do more than fund the government and line the pockets of the rich. They pay government workers ( one of the largest sectors of the employment market), fund the CDC, FDA, ATF, Homeland Security, CIA, FBI, Police, Firefighters, Teachers, Nursing Homes, Road Repair, Rescue Workers, Corrections, the Judiciary, Transportation and  the Military. We complain companies are not paying their fair share of taxes, are moving jobs off shore because taxes are too high, but without a tax base, this country would come to a halt. Goldman Sachs is paying taxes on only 1% of it's earnings, while benefiting from the bailout. If the Companies were paying their fair share perhaps our burden would be less and a personal tax moratorium could be held without fireing Firefighters, Police and Teachers to name a few.
There are no easy answers and Obama and his team know it. Just how bad things are or will become remains to be seen, but at least he is trying to find solutions. Ultimately, he is still only the President and answers not only to us ( every 4 years) but to Congress as well. He can only do so much, Congress still has to approve it..and boys and girls..we are the ones who elected Congress.

poenkitten

(in reply to celticlord2112)
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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 10:14:51 AM   
Mercnbeth


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~ Fast Reply ~
 
You want a 'quick fix'? A thought 'outside the box'?  - Eliminate the States.

They are antiquated bureaucracies, needed when the it took a week for information to go from Washington to St. Louis. Now they are simply a source for bureaucratic mismanagement and black holes of inefficiency. The elimination of duplicity will balance the budget.

(in reply to BlackPhx)
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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 10:20:31 AM   
celticlord2112


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quote:

Seems to me that many of the posters here have some very selective memories when it comes to history. The idea of tax cuts, belt tightening etc. was tried by Herbert Hoover (a Republican president) for several years and failed miserably. Unemployment reached its highest values in 1933, the year FDR took office, of approximately 25%. By 1940, unemployment had fallen to about 15%.

Hoover's great error was to sign Smoot-Hawley, a protectionist tariff that sparked retaliatory measures around the world.  Smoot-Hawley turned the 1929 contraction into the deflationary Great Depression.  (Over 1,000 economists petitioned Hoover to veto the tariff, and Henry Ford termed the tariff "economic stupidity")

Yet FDR's aura obscures the fact that the economy was already turning around by the time he took office.  Unemployment peaked in the first quarter of 1933, and began edging down even as FDR took office (inaugurated 4 March 1933).  FDR's aura also obscures the fact that his first piece of legislation, the Emergency Banking Act, was largely a left-over from the Hoover Administration.

One has to keep in mind that unemployment is a lagging economic indicator, not a leading one (i.e., the economy tanks and then the unemployment numbers rise; the economy recovers and then the unemployment numbers decline).  When unemployment declines in a given year/quarter, it is generally due to the actions taken in the previous year/quarter.  Thus the significant decline in unemployment in the last three quarters of 1933 has more to do with actions taken during the Hoover Administration and less to do with actions taken during the Roosevelet Administration, just as the spikes in unemployment during 1931 and 1932 are largely attributable to the 1930 signing of the Smoot-Hawley tariffs.

Had FDR done nothing but stay the course, permanent economic recovery would have occurred throughout his first term of office; had FDR acted more aggressively to undo Smoot-Hawley (while the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act was passed in 1934--liberalizing tariffs with specific nations, particularly Latin America--the broader tariff regime wasn't undone until after WWII), permanent recovery would have accelerated.  Instead, his big-government haphazard spending spree cratered the economy during his second term, and WWII was required to pull things out of that second tailspin.

Hoover's prescription but for Smoot-Hawley was the right one.


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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 10:26:13 AM   
celticlord2112


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quote:

Tax Moratorium. Wonderful on paper, how practical in practice?

Tax Revenue for 2008:  $1.2 Trillion dollars.

Stimulus plan:  $1 Trillion of new spending on top of the existing DEFICIT spending.  The bolded bit is important, because it eliminates the notion that taxes pay for any of this, or indeed for a substantial chunk of existing government spending.

Which is more practical?  Give the money (taxes) to the government so they can dole it back to us (the taxpayers) or let us keep it in the first place?


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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 11:11:10 AM   
samboct


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"Unemployment IS 6.7%. (Source: http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/biz/ratechart.asp )
A common application of rhetoric is that when references don't substantiate your opinion - call them "suspect". Of course, tracking people and reporting them was much easier in the 30's than it is now. In the 30's getting reported as unemployed was an embarrassment. Now - you get rewarded with sympathy and benefits. So of course more people hide their status now as opposed to 1930. Yeah - right! "Underemployment"? What's that, not getting what you're 'worth'. Try self employment and get exactly what you're worth. For some - it may mean dealing with a pay cut."  



Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics-

Merc- try this article-
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/dec2008/db20081212_666543.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_news+%2B+analysis


Even Business Week doesn't believe the BS of 6.7% unemployment- the BLS jiggered the measurements AGAIN.  As a scientist, when asked to compare something in the historical record, the first thing I do is make sure that the measurement is being made the same way, or at least differences in instrumentation or methods are referenced.  That's clearly not happening with the historical record on unemployment.  This administration has been anti science and very secretive- which basically means that they don't listen to scientists and classify things that they don't agree with- or cut off funding. 

One of the virtues of propaganda is that "facts" when repeated often enough, frequently become self fulfilling prophesies- unfortunately, I don't think that's going to happen with unemployment rates.

In terms of a California program that worked- the solar cell rebate.  Homes that had solar cells installed on their houses got a handsome tax rebate.  Critics decried it as a sop to the alternative energy industry and a boondoggle.  However, some folks at Berkeley studied the economics of what happened and pointed out that the solar panels reduced demand from the grid and so reduced the need for more power lines and power plants.  In short- distributed power was a success.  The rebates were more than paid for by the savings in electricity bills which were north of $5B IIRC.

Your gripe about the current highway system is noted- and I will point out that the interstates were built as a defense measure against nuclear attack in the 1950s.  Seems to me that they did pretty well but were not designed to cope with idiotic realtors and a population increase of 50%.

In terms of your gripe as to who will pay-I've already voiced my opinion that the current administration has bankrupted the country and that we're going to default on our debts one way or another.  Governments always spend money.  Obama's projects look to be far more worthwhile than the bailouts of the financial industry.  What's total idiocy is trying to climb out of a financial hole that's just getting deeper by the minute by cutting taxes.  Basically, we're declaring bankruptcy.  If anybody's going to loan you money again, you better have a plan for moving forward- not saying that we're going to borrow your money to try to make a bunch of rich idiots "whole".  Your post on the banking debacle shows that on some things we agree.  I found your comments about the contracts of executive bonuses coupled with the legal costs to try and unwind them to be interesting and informative.

In terms of your claim that we have a government of special interests- things were far worse during the 1880s where senators were in the pocket of large corporations quite openly.  Again, the claim that the government is somebody else and therefore we're not responsible for its mistakes is a major factor in bringing us to this precipice that we're sliding down.  See the propaganda on "facts" above.


Sam

(in reply to celticlord2112)
Profile   Post #: 31
RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 11:18:03 AM   
celticlord2112


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quote:

What's total idiocy is trying to climb out of a financial hole that's just getting deeper by the minute by cutting taxes.

And increased deficit spending (i.e., spending more than taking in in taxes) with taxes the same is different how?

$1Trillion in "stimulus" spending, or $1Trillion of tax moratorium.  Which gets dollars to individuals quickest? 

Or do you not trust individuals to spend "properly"?


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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 11:22:10 AM   
popeye1250


Posts: 18104
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quote:

ORIGINAL: celticlord2112

quote:

Seems to me that many of the posters here have some very selective memories when it comes to history. The idea of tax cuts, belt tightening etc. was tried by Herbert Hoover (a Republican president) for several years and failed miserably. Unemployment reached its highest values in 1933, the year FDR took office, of approximately 25%. By 1940, unemployment had fallen to about 15%.

Hoover's great error was to sign Smoot-Hawley, a protectionist tariff that sparked retaliatory measures around the world.  Smoot-Hawley turned the 1929 contraction into the deflationary Great Depression.  (Over 1,000 economists petitioned Hoover to veto the tariff, and Henry Ford termed the tariff "economic stupidity")

Yet FDR's aura obscures the fact that the economy was already turning around by the time he took office.  Unemployment peaked in the first quarter of 1933, and began edging down even as FDR took office (inaugurated 4 March 1933).  FDR's aura also obscures the fact that his first piece of legislation, the Emergency Banking Act, was largely a left-over from the Hoover Administration.

One has to keep in mind that unemployment is a lagging economic indicator, not a leading one (i.e., the economy tanks and then the unemployment numbers rise; the economy recovers and then the unemployment numbers decline).  When unemployment declines in a given year/quarter, it is generally due to the actions taken in the previous year/quarter.  Thus the significant decline in unemployment in the last three quarters of 1933 has more to do with actions taken during the Hoover Administration and less to do with actions taken during the Roosevelet Administration, just as the spikes in unemployment during 1931 and 1932 are largely attributable to the 1930 signing of the Smoot-Hawley tariffs.

Had FDR done nothing but stay the course, permanent economic recovery would have occurred throughout his first term of office; had FDR acted more aggressively to undo Smoot-Hawley (while the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act was passed in 1934--liberalizing tariffs with specific nations, particularly Latin America--the broader tariff regime wasn't undone until after WWII), permanent recovery would have accelerated.  Instead, his big-government haphazard spending spree cratered the economy during his second term, and WWII was required to pull things out of that second tailspin.

Hoover's prescription but for Smoot-Hawley was the right one.



Merc, and people from Calif are moving here to Myrtle Beach, S.C. as well!
A lady from San Diego moved here and pays $360 per year in real estate taxes on her condo just like me.

CL, I agree on Smoot Hawley but we seem to have the opposite problem now with all this "free trade" B.S.
We need to start manufacturing things in this country again.
Those "free trade" agreements are nothing but "outsourcing deals" where companies use cheap labor and now we're finding out, toxic materials to make junk that they import into the U.S. for a 2,000% profit!
And yes, our government needs to start making cuts and doing away with things.
When I got out of the Navy in 1974 I went to a fed govt. office in Boston to apply for a job that a friend told me about and that he worked at.
Basically a "paper shuffling" job.
He got back from 'Nam in 1970, an Army Veteran and they hired him right away.
The lady there told me very rudely I might add, that those jobs; "now require a college degree"!  The same job that my high school graduate buddy did!
Shuffling the same papers!
Me; "but my friend works here and he's dumb as shit!"
Me, being full of piss and vinegar just out of the Navy says to her; "Oh I went to college!"
Says she; "You did?" "Where?"
Says me; "I went to U.S.N. you skanky fuckin' cunt!"
"So if I had a "degree" in French fuckin' Art you'd hire me but I'm fresh out of the U.S. Navy so no fuckin' job for me!"
So, that's when a lot of that "feathering your nest" in govt. jobs started.
Ordinary paper shuffling jobs started to get "titles" and of course,.....the pay rates went up!
So now we have legions of basically secretaries in govt jobs with "degrees" and "titles" making $80-$120k for doing secretarial jobs that we could be paying $50k for. Look at how much money the govt. could save there!
There's plenty of things that could be cut or programs and departments done away with!
Oh, needless to say I didn't get that job.
The next time I saw my buddy he was laughing and said ; "Tommy, what the hell did you say to....., she went home sick after she talked to you!"
"Good! I hope she gets her period early!"

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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 11:34:45 AM   
celticlord2112


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quote:

We need to start manufacturing things in this country again.

Sounds like a great idea.

What will we manufacture?  And will consumers pay more if domestically produced goods are more expensive than imported goods of comparable quality?

(The last bit is bolded because, as is turning out to be quite often the case, goods imported from Asia are frequently not of comparable quality, and in fact are at times lethally defective.)


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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 12:11:57 PM   
Crush


Posts: 1031
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I'll be happy about the bailout when I'm bailed out....




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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 12:14:33 PM   
celticlord2112


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Crush

I'll be happy about the bailout when I'm bailed out....

Personally, I like to avoid being bailed out....that whole business about having to converse with the local constabulary is just so not my thing.  Those times I can't stay out of trouble I go for the next best option of staying out of custody!


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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 12:18:59 PM   
ScooterTrash


Posts: 1407
Joined: 1/24/2005
From: Indiana
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: celticlord2112

quote:

We need to start manufacturing things in this country again.

Sounds like a great idea.

What will we manufacture?  And will consumers pay more if domestically produced goods are more expensive than imported goods of comparable quality?

(The last bit is bolded because, as is turning out to be quite often the case, goods imported from Asia are frequently not of comparable quality, and in fact are at times lethally defective.)

Actually we still do manufacture in this country, but a large percentage of what we used to manufacture has been outsourced. I regret that much of this is at the request of the same end manufacturer that is complaining about low domestic sales. I don't know how many times I have quoted product and tooling stateside and they (the customer) has requested we source the tooling to a "low cost country", aka China. A bit self defeating if you ask me...but only occasionally does anyone ask me...lol.

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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 6:28:08 PM   
popeye1250


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I remembered why I was so pissed off at that lady.
I told her something to the effect that if I'd dodged the draft and went to college on a deferrment instead of serving in the military she'd hire me but not then because I served instead of been a draft dodger.
They wearn't very nice to veterans in those days.
If you wore the uniform they'd basically tell you to go fuck yourself if you needed a job but if you were a draft dodger with a "degree" they'd hire you!

Scooter, if people in this country aren't working at good paying jobs they can't buy that companie's products can they?
All we are to people like that is a "market."

< Message edited by popeye1250 -- 12/23/2008 6:31:16 PM >


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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 6:53:29 PM   
MzMia


Posts: 5333
Joined: 7/30/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

I remembered why I was so pissed off at that lady.
I told her something to the effect that if I'd dodged the draft and went to college on a deferrment instead of serving in the military she'd hire me but not then because I served instead of been a draft dodger.
They wearn't very nice to veterans in those days.
If you wore the uniform they'd basically tell you to go fuck yourself if you needed a job but if you were a draft dodger with a "degree" they'd hire you!

Scooter, if people in this country aren't working at good paying jobs they can't buy that companie's products can they?
All we are to people like that is a "market."


Popeye, you could really make it doing stand-up.
You are easily as funny as those Blue Collar Comedians.

I agree that most politicians see us as a "market".

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RE: Thoughts on Obama's possible 1 trillion stimulus plan? - 12/23/2008 8:31:06 PM   
Crush


Posts: 1031
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: celticlord2112

quote:

ORIGINAL: Crush

I'll be happy about the bailout when I'm bailed out....

Personally, I like to avoid being bailed out....that whole business about having to converse with the local constabulary is just so not my thing.  Those times I can't stay out of trouble I go for the next best option of staying out of custody!



So THAT explains the "Bailout" term...never thought of it that way  ... we're getting crooks out of trouble before they should have gone to jail.....ahhhhhh



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