Termyn8or
Posts: 18681
Joined: 11/12/2005 Status: offline
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Welcome ien, ninth post and you are ready for CM politics ? Wow LOL. At any rate, Merc said there is something he doesn't understand about actuaries in relation to the 500 year flood. I would suggest trying to think about it like hitting the lottery. Odds work both ways, and as unlikely as it may sound, there are more who have won the lottery more than once than normally would be expected. One reason may be is that they are using the winnings to bet ALOT, i.e. to buy alot of tickets to enhance their odds, but we all know the odds are the same and anyone with alot of money can do it. Also there were lottery cartels in existence that literally played evry number once the jackpot got big enough to render a net positive cash flow. However they could still lose because in most cases the prize is paramutual. Even assured of a win, they could still lose if too many people also played the winning number. However it is good gambling practice to move on to another table, machine or whatever after you hit big. This is where the 500 year flood comes in. Remember the odds work both ways, and you could hit the royal on a poker machine and move on and see someone else hit the royal on the very next hand. There is no reason to think otherwise, except for the 500 year flood method of thinking did not work once. Of course that doesn't mean to change course in your betting, but it does. But it doesn't. So don't feel bad, absolutely noone really understands the concept, even I could only visualize it, I can't quite grasp it. Odds are odds, but then they aren't. I know this was a quite feeble attempt to explain something I would probably term as "macro-probability", but these factors do exist. For example if the odds are 500:1 that doesn't mean that something can't hit twice in a row, but you don't reaonably expect it. If it does happen twice in a row, you would expect it not to happen for about another thousand shots, even though the prime odds are equal. However in this game there are too many variables that directly influence the game, which is therefore why I would not want to bet on this game. That is why I do not play the stock market. And it's also why I call it "playing" the stock market. OK maybe that was a bit lame, but it was an attempt to explain something that is very hard to grasp, what I find harder to grasp it what kind of bonehead writes a contract for an executive that is guaranteed even if he runs the place into the ground ? Of course there can be a defense "Our actuaries said that this was worth it", or "our market analysis said that his was sound given the potential for return" much like an individual investor might consider the P/E ratio of a given stock under consideration. Again, too many variables which cannot be controlled, at least under the conditions that existed which led up to this mess. Also, another good aspect of the reason I do not "play" the stock market. I have heard of schools in which students build an imaginary portfolio, and if they are studying ecomonics it is probably a good thing. However do they fail to teach about natural amortization of a loan and the idea of debt service and whether or not it is worth it ? I would say they do fail. On the surface, the normally amortized loan equity curve seems unfair, but it is not. If anyone needs an explanaition why just get me on the other side, as I'm sure most participating here already know. In other words I think using credit to finance more credit is a bad move. Loaning out money is, and should have remained, a rich Man's endevor. However, how it was done seems to have subrogated all of the taxpayers to basically stake, or restake the losers in the game. That is the part to which I as well as many others object. I don't want to say get the movie, but if someone could find the opening five minutes or so to the movie "Harlem Nights" it might serve to illustrate for the visually oriented. Guy loses at craps, gets pissed, Ray, the guy running the place said "Look you played and you lost, if you'd have won we would have paid you, now pass the dice or buy them off this MF" and then the other guy said "And I ain't selling punk". That's when the guy decided to rob the place, and sometimes I wonder just how far that scene is from what is going on now. Actually if you have seen Harlem Nights and remember it, the guy got shot. Some are thinking that might be a good option in this debacle. Of course I would be willing to supply a few rounds of ammo for the job, what caliber do you need ? I might even be tempted to do the job, but to who ? If the company gives you a big check what are you going to do, not cash it ? I think the time would be better spent in going after these boneheads who wrote the ridiculous contracts. So who are they ? T
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