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Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 3:50:17 PM

MzMia

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I have been discussing the real possibility of a Depression for a few years now.

The definition of a Depression is a prolonged recession.
By that definition, if things continue as they are now, an official Depression in 2010 is a real possibility.

Will California be America's FIRST failed state?
I always thought Michigan would be first, but now it could be a toss up.

The Coming Economic Depression: Will California become America's first failed state?

I have found The Coming Depression a website with articles worth reading.
At first glance, the website appears to be another doomsayer online rag, but I have
found the articles to have merit.

The Coming Economic Depression: October 2009

With unemployment around 30% in many area's of the country, where will the jobs be coming from?
What viable solutions can we put in place now?
Are we on the road to another Depression?
If you say we are not, what road are we on these days?

< Message edited by MzMia -- 10/4/2009 3:53:31 PM >

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 4:03:57 PM

SL4V3M4YB3

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Most people i.e. European finance ministers are predicting a turnaround at the start of 2010 I seriously doubt anyone has a crystal ball. When employment starts to reduce instead of just increasing that will be the best indicator. What we have all now done as tax payers is bail out those which were spending beyond their means. Those that were spending beyond their means where the only people keeping the economy going and I think everyone has since learnt their lesson and are now saving.

In honesty what is needed to revive the economy is a new generation of stupid people buying houses and then paying off mortgages with credit cards. To this end I suggest we make it legal for 16 year olds to own credit cards, then we can drop the credit card owning age further to balance the debt and ignorance levels.

What annoys me as a responsible saver is those companies that say "Did you agree to a mortgage or loan beyond your means and understanding? Well didums we can claim money back for all that stress caused to you by the bank that irresponsibly sold you that mortgage and what's more you can keep the asset as well meaning you just got something for nothing." Obviously if the system works in this way nullifying peoples debt it will be forever broken.

< Message edited by SL4V3M4YB3 -- 10/4/2009 4:17:42 PM >

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 4:16:31 PM

Ialdabaoth

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... umm... we've been *IN* a depression for a few years now. We're just not allowed to call it that until a few years after it's passed.

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 4:18:27 PM

Moonhead

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ialdabaoth

... umm... we've been *IN* a depression for a few years now. We're just not allowed to call it that until a few years after it's passed.

What he said.

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 4:24:15 PM

MzMia

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ialdabaoth

... umm... we've been *IN* a depression for a few years now. We're just not allowed to call it that until a few years after it's passed.

I agree with you {somewhat}, it takes time before a recession officially becomes a Depression.
I think we will officially be in a Depression in about a year.
Even in the 1930's, it took time to actually call it what it was.

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 4:52:36 PM

Lorr47

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We could be in the beginnings of a depression right now but I think that the real problem will occur around 2015. As the CEOs of Mayo and others have said by 2015 the United States will be bankrupted by health care costs. The citizens just do not understand that an unresolved health care system can bankrupt the whole system and Republicans do not want them to know. When it happens those who got the bribes can go to Europe and the first thing I see them doing is enrolling their families in a single payer system. Those of us who stay will have a civil war.

< Message edited by Lorr47 -- 10/4/2009 4:53:33 PM >

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 5:14:19 PM

DomKen

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Depression or recession is irrelevant. Low to negative growth is bad. Sustained deflation is worse.

We could be seeing both.

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 5:17:48 PM

Ialdabaoth

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

Depression or recession is irrelevant. Low to negative growth is bad. Sustained deflation is worse.

We could be seeing both.

Eh. It doesn't matter. Soon we'll be dead, and the world will continue on.

(in reply to DomKen)

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 5:17:59 PM

Lorr47

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

Depression or recession is irrelevant. Low to negative growth is bad. Sustained deflation is worse.

We could be seeing both.

Oh yes.

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 5:21:17 PM

Ialdabaoth

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I have an odd question for everyone, here:

How personally important is the fall of Rome to you guys?

How about the fall of Babylon?

How about the fall of Egypt?

The decline of the British Empire?

So, what's the big deal about the fall of Pax Americana?

(in reply to Lorr47)

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 5:24:10 PM

Lorr47

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ialdabaoth

quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

Depression or recession is irrelevant. Low to negative growth is bad. Sustained deflation is worse.

We could be seeing both.

Eh. It doesn't matter. Soon we'll be dead, and the world will continue on.

To me it matters. I resent being expected to slither away quivering into the night. I believe that the Vikings had the right idea. Even if you are going to go down, go down fighting. Even if no one is watching, be brave in the way you live and die.

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 5:24:35 PM

NormalOutside

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I agree that we're already in it. Official or not, who cares though. The US is bankrupt and more and more people are finally figuring it out. Many are still clinging to the hope peddled by Obama and the other bankster puppets, sadly. It is them that will fall hardest and not recover. :(

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 5:25:54 PM

Ialdabaoth

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lorr47
To me it matters. I resent being expected to slither away quivering into the night. I believe that the Vikings had the right idea. Even if you are going to go down, go down fighting. Even if no one is watching, be brave in the way you live and die.

And why is that noble?

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 5:34:08 PM

Lorr47

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ialdabaoth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lorr47
To me it matters. I resent being expected to slither away quivering into the night. I believe that the Vikings had the right idea. Even if you are going to go down, go down fighting. Even if no one is watching, be brave in the way you live and die.

And why is that noble?

"Noble?" No. But think of it this way. People like Sanity then win. How morally repulsive can it get.

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 5:36:49 PM

StrongNotCruel

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Very hard question. This recession is perhaps viewed as the latest in a string of financial bubbles "bursting". First the dot-com, then housing, then the financial industry. Some folks feel that commercial real estate is preparing to burst, driving more very bad assets into an already weakened financial system. I'm assuming you live in the US from the particulars of your question. Most people that study this stuff feel that the economy will stabilize, with unemployment in the 10% range, much worse in certain areas of the country, and that growth will not lead to job creation. The New York Times has a couple of economists, Paul Krugman being one of them, that are worth reading if you want more information.

The US isn't leading the world out of this recession, and we may need to really dedicate ourselves to education and infrastructure to have an economy that can support this country.

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 5:50:14 PM

Lorr47

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quote:

ORIGINAL: StrongNotCruel

Very hard question. This recession is perhaps viewed as the latest in a string of financial bubbles "bursting". First the dot-com, then housing, then the financial industry. Some folks feel that commercial real estate is preparing to burst, driving more very bad assets into an already weakened financial system. I'm assuming you live in the US from the particulars of your question. Most people that study this stuff feel that the economy will stabilize, with unemployment in the 10% range, much worse in certain areas of the country, and that growth will not lead to job creation. The New York Times has a couple of economists, Paul Krugman being one of them, that are worth reading if you want more information.

The US isn't leading the world out of this recession, and we may need to really dedicate ourselves to education and infrastructure to have an economy that can support this country.

I feel that Paul Krugman is an excellent economist mainly because he can explain things in the English language. (That statement should bring out every right leaning person on this site.) What is bothering me is the point we are starting from. How little time we have before say 2015. And, the "sentiment" factor. As I read "sentiment" people who I speak with have no faith that we will get out of mess. Those I associate with blame the malaise on the republicans. The republicans blame it on the democrats. And the citizenry blame it on the size of their bowel movements. And, who knows the size of a bowel movement may be the best indicator.

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 6:14:23 PM

Ialdabaoth

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From: Tempe, AZ
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lorr47
"Noble?" No. But think of it this way. People like Sanity then win. How morally repulsive can it get.

People like Sanity have ALWAYS won. 600 AD to 1400 AD was called the "Dark Ages" for a reason, you know.

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 6:15:25 PM

MzMia

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Joined: 7/30/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lorr47

quote:

ORIGINAL: StrongNotCruel

Very hard question. This recession is perhaps viewed as the latest in a string of financial bubbles "bursting". First the dot-com, then housing, then the financial industry. Some folks feel that commercial real estate is preparing to burst, driving more very bad assets into an already weakened financial system. I'm assuming you live in the US from the particulars of your question. Most people that study this stuff feel that the economy will stabilize, with unemployment in the 10% range, much worse in certain areas of the country, and that growth will not lead to job creation. The New York Times has a couple of economists, Paul Krugman being one of them, that are worth reading if you want more information.

The US isn't leading the world out of this recession, and we may need to really dedicate ourselves to education and infrastructure to have an economy that can support this country.

I feel that Paul Krugman is an excellent economist mainly because he can explain things in the English language. (That statement should bring out every right leaning person on this site.) What is bothering me is the point we are starting from. How little time we have before say 2015. And, the "sentiment" factor. As I read "sentiment" people who I speak with have no faith that we will get out of mess. Those I associate with blame the malaise on the republicans. The republicans blame it on the democrats. And the citizenry blame it on the size of their bowel movements. And, who knows the size of a bowel movement may be the best indicator.

If we have to wait until 2015 to hit the bottom, we are in worse shape than I thought.
Hang on to your hats, it is going to be a long and bumpy ride.

I still haven't heard any viable solutions to creating more jobs.
Anyway we can get back some of the jobs we have outsourced?

< Message edited by MzMia -- 10/4/2009 6:38:50 PM >

_____________________________

Namaste'
To Each His/Her Own
"DENIAL ain't just a river in Egypt." Mark Twain

What's your favorite fetish?
"My partner's whisper"--bloomswell

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 6:25:03 PM

Lorr47

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quote:

People like Sanity have ALWAYS won. 600 AD to 1400 AD was called the "Dark Ages" for a reason, you know.

That is funny. I really needed that. Goodnight.

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RE: Is a Depression coming in 2010. a real possibility? - 10/4/2009 6:41:15 PM

NeedToUseYou

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My uneducated opinion is what has happened thus far, is not the worst.

Why? No meaningful reform addressing the causes has occurred.
Foreign Countries, now are less enamored with the safety of the dollar on a long-term time line.
Some consumers (that's what we are called, isn't that insulting), will not revert to the rampant spending behavior.
This situation has shown the national security risk of having economies based on export import disproportionate to internal demand(china).
We are more broke now than when the crisis began.
We (government) are not focused on fixing the core problem with the economy instead being distracted with other issues, no where near as important.
We are still set upon the idea of policing the world, and its enormous costs.

Oh, there is more, but I see a glass half full with a hole in the bottom, we are refusing to plug.

I do however, believe a crisis will reemerge in the next five years, we may have an induced mini bubble in between, or not, I've no idea what the government is going to do. However, I think the US has peaked for the foreseeable future.

Of course if by some magic our government stops working for the megacorps, and megacorps stop working to enrich the politicians, and pandering to our weaknesses, and actually pass some real reform, it may not happen.

I'm not betting on it.

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