10.4% Unemployment (Full Version)

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Mercnbeth -> 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 10:07:28 AM)

Counting those who have settled for part-time jobs or stopped looking for work, the unemployment rate would be 17.5 percent, the highest on records dating from 1994.

No change in the trend. $159 Billion paid out in "stimulus" which, according to one method of calculation, produced 640,329 jobs at a cost of $160,000 per job. Jared Berstein, chief economist and senior economic adviser to the Vice President Biden, argues the cost per job was actually $92,000. Using the VP's economist number it will cost $17,480,000,000 to only replace the 190,000 lost in October. Applying it to the total number of unemployed, 15.7 million, and current Administration policies would require $1,444,400,000,000; almost as much as the pending Health Care Bill.

Manufacturers eliminated a net total of 61,000 jobs, the most in four months. Construction shed 62,000 jobs, down slightly from the previous month.

One sign of how hard it still is to find a job: The number of Americans who have been out of work for six months or longer rose to 5.6 million, a record. They account for 35.6 percent of the unemployed population, matching a record set last month.

The labor situation is actually worse than what these figures and the 10.2% rate show. The government doesn't count as officially unemployed the so-called discouraged workers who have given up looking for jobs -- which in October numbered 808,000, up from 484,000 a year earlier.

And while the administration is promising good and in time reporting we can see that it's far from being the case: Agencies report having spent $207.3 billion and yet only $36,688,660,161 were reported by states.

Some 85 percent of the money went to four agencies: Health and Human Services (HHS), Labor, Education and Social Security. For instance, some of the HHS funds went to some rural high school and college students from Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee to conduct medical research this summer with a team of leading scientists at Vanderbilt University. The Department of Labor spent $11,058,877 in unemployment insurance (UI) modernization incentive funds to the state of West Virginia. And the Department of Education is mainly spending its money to keep union protected school teachers in their jobs. But the most relevant information on Recovery.gov is that most of the jobs created or saved are in the public sector, says de Rugy: For instance, according to Vice President Biden, out of the 640,329 jobs, 325,000 went to education and 80,000 to construction jobs, with the difference going to other government jobs.Also, 13,080 grants went to the private sector, and 116,625 went to federal agencies.


Those are the facts.

Here's are questions...

What's the incentive for any industry in the private sector, the only place jobs can be created that doesn't require additional taxation to fund, to create one new job?

What program implemented by this Administration and Congress can be pointed to as a source for future new jobs?

When in the history of any economic system in the world, has a position of more taxation, more regulation, and adversarial to business profits, stimulated any private sector job surge?

The only growth industry is government workers. Increasing the bureaucratic employment sector costs money and increases deficit spending requiring more taxes, counter productive to business expansion and job creation. Taxed at a higher rate - there is no incentive to make more money. There is an incentive to pay for the increased taxes by further reducing your biggest overhead - employees. Is there some other perspective which would point to a fault in that position which seems to be one of the major causes for this unemployment number?

How long and what results are required before the general population eliminates party specific politics and party affiliation as the first consideration for calling failure - failure?




willbeurdaddy -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 10:18:06 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth

How long and what results are required before the general population eliminates party specific politics and party affiliation as the first consideration for calling failure - failure?


361 days




servantforuse -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 10:26:46 AM)

If the unemployment rate is still at or near 10% next summer, the republicans won't have any democrats to run against in the mid term elections. There are no indications that employment numbers will improve any time soon.




willbeurdaddy -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 10:30:42 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

If the unemployment rate is still at or near 10% next summer, the republicans won't have any democrats to run against in the mid term elections. There are no indications that employment numbers will improve any time soon.


The Dems will try and windowdress unemployment for a few months with the rollout of the stimulus money. There will be some uptick in hiring, although on a temporary basis. Companies should be well enough informed by now that it can only be temporary, and will not add to permanent payroll.




AnimusRex -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 10:31:02 AM)

quote:

When in the history of any economic system in the world, has a position of more taxation, more regulation, and adversarial to business profits, stimulated any private sector job surge?


Actually, our taxes are much lower today than they were during say, the 1940's through the 1960's. Back then, marginal tax rates were much higher, government banking and stock market regulations were much stricter, and the economy was much more robust by any measure.

I don't have a magic solution for eternal prosperity of full employment, low inflation and so on. No one does, in fact.

It was the central conceit of both Karl Marx and Ayn Rand that a simple political program was capable of "solving" the problem of economic swings; that is we "would only do X and Y, then we would have full employment and prosperity for all."
The unemployment we are seeing now is the result of over a decade of overspending, overleveraging, loose credit, and the loosening of Depression-era banking regulation that led to a wild casino mentality on Wall Street.

Did anyone think that Obama would be sworn in on January 20, and within a few months wave a magic wand and return us to good times? The crash of 1929 took over a full decade to recover from.

Oh, by the way- the Depression was cured, not by tax cuts, but by massive New Deal and WWII federal spending.




servantforuse -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 10:36:02 AM)

Obama himself thought he had a magic wand. His own administration said that unemployment rates wouldn't go above 8 1/2 %. Look for 11% next month and 12% for December..




Sanity -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 10:54:05 AM)


Why would any corporation build new facilities of any kind here when our government is as anti-business as it is. Profits are considered to be evil now, and the upcominmg cap and tax legislation will by design artificially raise the cost of doing anything substantially.

Of course unemployment is beginning to spike, its so bad that many reasonable people are beginning to suspect that it is by design.




SpinnerofTales -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 11:02:34 AM)

~FR~

I seem to recall, back when this meltdown began, the leading economists projected that unemployment would top out at about 11%. It sounded reasonable to me then and it sounds reasonable to me now. Unfortunatly, the question we cannot answer is how bad or good things would have been without the stepe that were taken.




willbeurdaddy -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 11:06:31 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: AnimusRex

quote:

When in the history of any economic system in the world, has a position of more taxation, more regulation, and adversarial to business profits, stimulated any private sector job surge?


Actually, our taxes are much lower today than they were during say, the 1940's through the 1960's. Back then, marginal tax rates were much higher, government banking and stock market regulations were much stricter, and the economy was much more robust by any measure.

I don't have a magic solution for eternal prosperity of full employment, low inflation and so on. No one does, in fact.

It was the central conceit of both Karl Marx and Ayn Rand that a simple political program was capable of "solving" the problem of economic swings; that is we "would only do X and Y, then we would have full employment and prosperity for all."
The unemployment we are seeing now is the result of over a decade of overspending, overleveraging, loose credit, and the loosening of Depression-era banking regulation that led to a wild casino mentality on Wall Street.

Did anyone think that Obama would be sworn in on January 20, and within a few months wave a magic wand and return us to good times? The crash of 1929 took over a full decade to recover from.

Oh, by the way- the Depression was cured, not by tax cuts, but by massive New Deal and WWII federal spending.


The depression was extended by the new deal.

And yes, millions of people actually thought that Obama would wave a magic wand.

And the economy was more robust by any measure? Uhhhh wrong. The most important measure of the economy is real growth in GDP. And when was that measure the highest (based on rolling 12 month average growth)? During the period of lowest taxation and low inflation, 2006-2008.




Mercnbeth -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 11:09:37 AM)

quote:

Actually, our taxes are much lower today than they were during say, the 1940's through the 1960's. Back then, marginal tax rates were much higher,
Pointing to the irrelevance; things like capital gains and business encumbering regulations were much lower.
quote:

It was the central conceit of both Karl Marx and Ayn Rand that a simple political program was capable of "solving" the problem of economic swings; that is we "would only do X and Y, then we would have full employment and prosperity for all."


Excellent point - why then would President Obama consider it a blueprint for their policies?

quote:

Did anyone think that Obama would be sworn in on January 20, and within a few months wave a magic wand and return us to good times? The crash of 1929 took over a full decade to recover from.
The "all is well", things are just worse than we thought, it's all going according to 'plan', it will just take more time (10 years?) position.

quote:

Oh, by the way- the Depression was cured, not by tax cuts, but by massive New Deal and WWII federal spending.
The 'New Deal' was failing and money was running out until WWII ended it and replaced it and government committed to the private sector to produce.

I guess your position is all Obama needs to turn around these unemployment numbers and for his 'plan' to succeed is WWIII. Was 'CHANGE!' or 'WAR!' the campaign jingle?


quote:

the leading economists projected that unemployment would top out at about 11%.
Based upon the results of Obama's implemented programs which, as has been pointed out, the Obama Administration challenged and assured the nation would not exceed 8 1/2. Naiveté, ignorance, incompetency, or refusing to accept pragmatic and basic economic reality and projecting consequences for actions taken? Wait I forgot the most likely answer - it's Bush's fault.




AnimusRex -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 1:02:14 PM)

In what way did WWII end the Depression?

According to my sources, it was the massive federal war spending and government takeover of private industry that helped turn things around.
During the war, the government socialized most of the economy; the government dictated what could be produced, and who could buy it. Products were rationed, and wages were controlled.

Obama is as much of a Socialist as Eisenhower; there was more government regulation during the 1950's than there is now; for example, gasoline prices were heavily regulated during Eisenhower's term; the banks were more heavily regulated then, and Richard Nixon institured wage and price controls during his term.

So if Obama is a Socialist, he has plenty of Republican company.

By the way, you are correct that is is foolishness to assure anyone what the unemployment rate will be in the future. No one has a crystal ball anymore than anyone has a magic wand.




Musicmystery -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 1:20:37 PM)

quote:

Here's are questions...

What's the incentive for any industry in the private sector, the only place jobs can be created that doesn't require additional taxation to fund, to create one new job?


You've got a whole host of issues here, and you'd require a series of essays to address them all.

But I'll take the first one...

While it's a jobless recovery, and slow, we are in positive growth. Inventories, however, are very low, so it would take very little growth to force hiring, at least temporarily, to boost production.

Yeah, not what you're looking for, but one answer to the first question.




Mercnbeth -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 1:33:57 PM)

quote:

According to my sources
Where are they?

quote:

Obama is as much of a Socialist as Eisenhower; there was more government regulation during the 1950's than there is now; for example, gasoline prices were heavily regulated during Eisenhower's term; the banks were more heavily regulated then, and Richard Nixon instituted wage and price controls during his term.
Picking and choosing which regulations were in place and how they affected the economy of the times are irrelevant to these times or this argument. There is no comparison to how international trade was conducted. There is nothing similar to interstate trade, insurance, and banking, nor the anti-trust regulations in place at the time. It was also a time of union workers coming into their own, deservedly so. But again, what's that have to do with now? BTW - it was actually more draconian under Nixon. He froze all prices and wages; irrelevant but factually accurate.

You pick Eisenhower and Nixon as if there were no other Administrations in place between them. Pointing to the "political party" blindness of your position.
quote:

During the war, the government socialized most of the economy; the government dictated what could be produced, and who could buy it. Products were rationed, and wages were controlled
I still hope that War isn't the solution to the problem but if that's the only scenario you hang your hope on turning around the economy it points to how bad it is.
quote:

So if Obama is a Socialist, he has plenty of Republican company.
Why do you find it necessary to bring up Obama being a socialist? Be clear, are you in support of ongoing government take over of more industries and businesses? Fine if you do and see nationalization of all business and jobs as the final solution. I don't but would appreciate if you, or the administration for that matter, would be transparent on that goal.

This is about results, specifically the 10.4% unemployment rate and rising. Labeling people is not an argument I raised. Is that the only argument you have for explaining the failure of this administration to do anything about it?

quote:

No one has a crystal ball anymore than anyone has a magic wand.
Your expectations are much lower for this Administration, or any, having power to implement change. I didn't expect a "crystal ball" nor a "magic wand". I expected intelligent and pragmatic action that considered consequences. Not the case when the Administration in power assured us all the 8.5% would be the worst unemployment would get.

You see it is the Administration and Congress which is creating the environment for these results. Increased spending, increased regulation, the promise of increasing taxes on profits, and bailing out the failures at the expense of the successes doesn't seem to be a working formula to me. How about you?




Mercnbeth -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 1:37:59 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery
quote:

Here's are questions...
What's the incentive for any industry in the private sector, the only place jobs can be created that doesn't require additional taxation to fund, to create one new job?

But I'll take the first one...

While it's a jobless recovery, and slow, we are in positive growth. Inventories, however, are very low, so it would take very little growth to force hiring, at least temporarily, to boost production.

Yeah, not what you're looking for, but one answer to the first question.

The question was pointed to the incentive to create jobs in the USA. Which low inventory would produce jobs to the US if demand increased? Where will the demand originate? Why will it occur? How will the demand be generated when with each passing month fewer people are working and those that are have their hours cut, and need to come up with more money to fund the revenue stream required to pay for the entitlement programs being implemented by this Administration?




willbeurdaddy -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 1:48:24 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

quote:

Here's are questions...

What's the incentive for any industry in the private sector, the only place jobs can be created that doesn't require additional taxation to fund, to create one new job?


You've got a whole host of issues here, and you'd require a series of essays to address them all.

But I'll take the first one...

While it's a jobless recovery, and slow, we are in positive growth. Inventories, however, are very low, so it would take very little growth to force hiring, at least temporarily, to boost production.

Yeah, not what you're looking for, but one answer to the first question.



Inventories arent very low. There was a large drop in August due to cash for clunkers, but that was merely accelerated sales, and they will rebuild over the rest of the year




OrionTheWolf -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 2:26:37 PM)

Good question Merc, and currently there are no actual incentives offered by the Federal Government, unless it is "green" energy based.

Another question I have, that I cannot find information on is: Since Obama sold the stimulus package on his top economic advisors projecting that unemployment would top out at 8%, what does this do to the pay back on that package? More money in the deficit for longer equals more interest and a larger final bill.

Also, if we calculate the true unemployment numbers, not how the government currently tracks it, what would the percentage be?




willbeurdaddy -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 2:54:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: OrionTheWolf


Also, if we calculate the true unemployment numbers, not how the government currently tracks it, what would the percentage be?


17-18%





rulemylife -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 6:51:54 PM)

Analysis: 10 percent jobless rate is Obama's new world

WASHINGTON – For months he had warned it was coming but that didn't ease the political shockwaves for President Barack Obama when unemployment topped 10 percent.

A year after his election Obama finds it increasingly difficult to blame the sour economy on George W. Bush or offer reassurances that jobless Americans will soon find work.

Never mind that the economy itself grew in the last quarter, that the recession, as measured by the precise formulas used by economists, is over and that the number of jobs lost in October was less than one-third the number of job losses at the start of his presidency.




servantforuse -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 8:24:33 PM)

I think that Obama screwed this up. But. I hope he does the right thing to change the tide. 80 % of workers in this Country are employed by small businesses. Lets give them some tax breaks so they can hire new employees. They are being taxed to death and are worried about more restrictive legistration, called tax and trade. As it is, this is not solved in a year or two, it will be five to ten years..




OrionTheWolf -> RE: 10.4% Unemployment (11/6/2009 9:31:00 PM)

Nevermind that his top economic advisors predicted a high of 8% just a few days before he took office. Nevermind that the numbers pitched on the stimulus package were based on 8%. Nevermind that even the economist admit that there is no such thing as precise formulas for predicting the economy accurately.

Yeah I agree, nevermind. Just pony up more taxes and let our political servants spend the money however they wish.


quote:

ORIGINAL: rulemylife

Analysis: 10 percent jobless rate is Obama's new world

WASHINGTON – For months he had warned it was coming but that didn't ease the political shockwaves for President Barack Obama when unemployment topped 10 percent.

A year after his election Obama finds it increasingly difficult to blame the sour economy on George W. Bush or offer reassurances that jobless Americans will soon find work.

Never mind that the economy itself grew in the last quarter, that the recession, as measured by the precise formulas used by economists, is over and that the number of jobs lost in October was less than one-third the number of job losses at the start of his presidency.




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