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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 12:32:40 PM   
Lordandmaster


Posts: 10943
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Status: offline 		No it won't.

But it's kind of pointless to get into the predicting-the-future game, because no one is going to be in position to verify your forecasts, and you're hardly offering any convertible guarantees anyway.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Turdstool

The population of the earth in 50 years time will be 20 billion.

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 12:32:59 PM   
caitlyn


Posts: 3473
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Status: offline 		Would you care to tell us why?

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 12:54:05 PM   
LaTigresse


Posts: 26123
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Status: offline 		the way things are going right now, definately China


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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 1:04:37 PM   
FisherKing1963


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quote:

ORIGINAL: incognitoinmass

I agree generally with what you are saying.

Islamicists are the only threat we need worry about now.  They have set the menu and all the choices are bad:
  • Deal with us now
  • Deal with a nuclear us later
  • Don't deal with us at all and we will deal with you later. 


The last choice is currently being played out in Europe.  If you like what you see there, well,  that is the future for us  if we fail to deal with them now. 




/11

Suppose someone were to tell you that 9/11 was cooked up by the cryptocracy and that it came close to being completely botched?
That Osama BinLadin has been an agent of the CIA since the Russians were in Afghanistan?
Suppose that someone were to tell you that the entire case against 'Radical Islam' was being orchestrated, everything from 9/11 to WMD to Fallujah to the roadside IED's that are killing US troops to those gruesome beheadings to the present staredown with Iran was nothing but a big fucking charade? a psychodrama? aimed at taking control of certain olifields and destroying one of the last strongholds of monotheist religious fundamentalism on Earth? and that's just for starts!

-FK63

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 1:26:33 PM   
stef


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Status: offline 		I need to buy more shares of Alcoa, and soon!

~stef

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 1:34:16 PM   
Moloch


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Status: offline 		You mean the aluminum processor company?
I wouldnt reccomend it, the scrap aluminum price may be steady, the processiong and manufacturing prices are sky rocketing.

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 1:36:36 PM   
Mercnbeth


Posts: 11766
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quote:

Suppose someone were to tell you that 9/11 was cooked up by the cryptocracy and that it came close to being completely botched?
That Osama BinLadin has been an agent of the CIA since the Russians were in Afghanistan?
Suppose that someone were to tell you that the entire case against 'Radical Islam' was being orchestrated, everything from 9/11 to WMD to Fallujah to the roadside IED's that are killing US troops to those gruesome beheadings to the present staredown with Iran was nothing but a big fucking charade? a psychodrama? aimed at taking control of certain olifields and destroying one of the last strongholds of monotheist religious fundamentalism on Earth? and that's just for starts!


I'd say if they knew whether the "charade" was being carried out in the same military hanger that the moon landing was faked, where a brain dead Kennedy is still being kept alive for cloning purposes, and where all the passengers and crew from flight #77 (since it was obviously a missile that hit the Pentagon) are being kept in suspended animation and used as spare body parts for the 'Illuminati'? Maybe they'd also know what day/time the mother ship is coming to pick us up.

Other than that, I'd say; "Summer's approaching - make sure you replace the heavy duty aluminum foil hat with regular."

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 3:05:49 PM   
Level


Posts: 25145
Joined: 3/3/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: FisherKing1963


Suppose someone were to tell you that 9/11 was cooked up by the cryptocracy and that it came close to being completely botched?
That Osama BinLadin has been an agent of the CIA since the Russians were in Afghanistan?
Suppose that someone were to tell you that the entire case against 'Radical Islam' was being orchestrated, everything from 9/11 to WMD to Fallujah to the roadside IED's that are killing US troops to those gruesome beheadings to the present staredown with Iran was nothing but a big fucking charade? a psychodrama? aimed at taking control of certain olifields and destroying one of the last strongholds of monotheist religious fundamentalism on Earth? and that's just for starts!

-FK63


I'd tell them to quit sniffing glue.
 
Level

(in reply to FisherKing1963)
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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 4:39:40 PM   
DelightMachine


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quote:

 
Turd,


Wish I'd said that ...


quote:

  
The Muslim world. They have the monetary and political might to be a factor not only in the middle east, but throughout the world. India would be a nice jumping point. A Muslim empire is very possible. They have a Romanesque pragmatic philosophy; join us, become us, or die. ... [SNIP]
The Muslims are the only logical replacement to the current US world influence. And in their case it would be a true empire.

Any argument?


"The Muslims" are a diverse group and unlikely to form an empire except through some kind of conquest. That's extremely unlikely when you've got Turkey in NATO, a strong Iran, a nuclear Pakistan, a distant Indonesia (the most populous Muslim country) and the U.S. likely to actively oppose any kind of consolidation in the Muslim world.

But for the sake of argument, let's say it somehow happened that all the Muslims from Morocco up to and including Iran, and you can throw in Turkey and a few nations from the former U.S.S.R., all became one empire.

Except for Turkey, and not much of it, they would have hardly any industry and very little ability, aside from selling oil, to sustain their own economies if we ever stopped trading with them. By the time Muslims could coagulate into an empire, we'll have hybird cars in abundance and we'd build nuclear power plants to make up for the rest of the lost oil. We'd find substitutes for plastic, which I think is where the rest of the petrochemicals go. We'd survive an economic war with them, at least in the long term. Yes, they might have us over an economic barrel for a short while. But we could also slaughter them in a no-holds-barred war. It wouldn't be nice to remove the Muslim population from the oil-producing areas of Saudi Arabia, but we could do it and keep them away as we pumped the oil out ASAP.

The Arab and Central Asian Muslims just don't have much of an economy at all, and you need that in order to sustain a war. I think that was our decisive edge in World War II, wasn't it? We could keep producing while the Axis powers couldn't, right? That and all those Russians willing to die on the battlefield, but I don't think Russia could've done it without us.

Incidentally, I've read in a bunch of places (but can't for the life of me remember where) that the U.S. spends more on its military than the next largest 25 national military budgets combined. And we are spending LESS of our GNP on defense than we typically spent (as a percentage) during the Cold War.

We have a very rich, very productive economy that's growing better than Europe's and better than Japan's. It will finance our huge military for a long, long time to come. And since Americans don't like any wars they think are unnecessary, we're unlikely to get into many unecessary ones that will drain us. Does anybody believe that if the American people seriously saw some other nation seriously threaten us, it wouldn't be ready to go to war?



< Message edited by DelightMachine -- 4/13/2006 4:40:31 PM >

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 4:58:52 PM   
Mercnbeth


Posts: 11766
Status: offline 		Delight, (See I ALWAYS use the first name familiarity and for reference)
The 'southern state civil war machine' reference is a good argument against a Muslim empire. That's why I included India in the equation. Sure, with Pakistan as it's only adversary India's status is relatively secure, but add a nuclear Iran and it may tilt the balance of power. Under the policy of an enemy of my enemy is my ally, a Pakistan/Iran unified attack on India could occur. At that point China may feel threatened and act as the intermediary.

I think it will only take one "victory" to ally the rest of the Arab/Muslim states. It may be India, it may be Israel, but when it occurs the reaction of the West will be closely analyzed. Any weakness will be exploited. The people in these countries have no access to any other information than what they are getting from the propaganda machines within their countries. It will be a VERY united front if the powers in place choose to exploit it.

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 4:59:01 PM   
DelightMachine


Posts: 652
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quote:


China and the US are going to war and China is going to kick the US' ass.  End of story as far as I am concerned.


The Chinese government right now can barely keep in control. There were something like 17,000 riots in China last year, according to the Chinese authorities, and they're probably understating it. They are still incredibly poor and desperately need resources and technology from abroad. And yes, we are their biggest customer, and any war with us will result in disaster for them.

And with nuclear weapons, the best they can hope to do is get as far as the old Soviet Union did.

They are very likely to have a revolution or a coup because they have so many deep social problems and a government, especially at the provincial and local level, that is thoroughly corrupt and difficult to clean up. Everybody's got a grievance and everybody's right.

They don't want to confront the U.S. for another 50 years. They won't be strong enough for another 50 years even at the rate they're going. And much of the economic gains they make could be reversed with a civil war or the deep civil unrest that is just below the surface over there.

Let's say in 50 years they get their act together. Then, yes, they have a chance to become more powerful than we are. From Ancient times until about 1800, they had the most advanced civilization on the planet (lucky for the rest of us, they didn't want to expand much beyond their borders). Their culture is incredibly strong, and whenever you find a Chinese population OUTside of the socialist dump that China has been for so long, you find people who can take advantage of capitalism as well as anybody. Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong have fantastic economies. Asian Americans (Chinese, Japanese and Koreans, I mean) have higher per capita earnings in the U.S. than Caucasians. They do well wherever they go because of a (mostly Confucian) culture that stresses family order and literacy.

But the United States has its own strengths. We are generally hard working, we also value education (after a fashion), and we've always been technologically adept (inventive). Other nations have been underestimating us for decades, even centuries. It's the simple truth: We've had accomplishments no other country has been able to match. Yes, others could do better, but so could we.

With nuclear weapons, I don't see any nation annhiliating us unless we do the same to them. It's always possible, I guess. 

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 5:07:13 PM   
understud


Posts: 102
Joined: 4/12/2006
Status: offline 		Please excuse everyone, I still don't know exactly how this forum works if I'm bargin in again my apologies...If I may be allowed to observe...any power that refuses to use its power looses power. I Believe the country will eventuall go under by the relunctance to employ overwelmong force...Its nice to be liked, its much better to be feared and respected. In my unworthy opinion to me India will in all likely hood fill the vacume. But its only one humble opinion...thank you for the time and I hope I haven broken any rules. reguards

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 5:15:56 PM   
DelightMachine


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Joined: 1/21/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: incognitoinmass

Demographics suggest that Russia will lose almost half its population in 50 years and in that same time frame Europe will be completely overrun by muslims.

Neither entity's "native" population is reproducing at a rate high enough to even maintain it's current 'native' populations.


The biggest mistake made in predictions, particularly any predictions over the long term, is projecting current trends without change. Remember, 50 years ago, people were predicting that the U.S. population would also be exploding. I don't know of anyone who saw the decline in First World births. By the way, births in much of the Third World are also slowing down, even outside China and India. We really have no idea what social factors may change birthrates in the future. I'll agree that the trends are more likely to stay roughly in the same direction for the next 20 years.

quote:


My prediction:

US
India
China


My guess would be about the same, but China might be more powerful than India. I think it will depend on what policies both countries have and what internal frictions they can overcome, and both are unpredictable.

Back in 1860, would anyone have predicted that Japan would have beat Russia in an early 20th century war?

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 5:21:40 PM   
DelightMachine


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quote:

ORIGINAL: understud
...any power that refuses to use its power looses power. I Believe the country will eventuall go under by the relunctance to employ overwelmong force...Its nice to be liked, its much better to be feared and respected.


Barge in, the water's fine! And welcome, understud!

You might have made roughly the same observation on Dec. 6, 1941. I think when the American people think their country is in danger, they don't hesitate to go to war and want to stomp the other side until it breaks. We like to keep our heads in the sand, but we're unlikely to be destroyed in a single blow, and we're big enough, economically powerful enough and, still, militarily strong enough to beat on anyone who tries.

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 5:32:14 PM   
ArtCatDom


Posts: 478
Joined: 1/20/2005
Status: offline 		To deny the imperial tone of America's might is naive at best.

The United States most certainly has had and has the join or us or die mentality. We've made concessions to Russia because we have to struggle with them for world influence, particular in Asia and the Near East, and after all the Cold War is "over". The Cold War is "over" excuse was used to more fully normalize relations with China, though that really has to do with with a burgeoning modernizing market. But those are exceptions, not the rule, for our foreign policy. We maintain almost all other Cold War agressive tactics. If you doubt this, I'd suggest you review our foreign policy towards Central and South America.

We continue to support corrupt inhumane authortarian governments while denouncing governments for no other reason that the leaders' "socialist history" or the socialist nature of the elected government. What's the point in continuing our embargo of Castro's Cuba with no Russia to make Cuba a real threat, especially considering they're the worlds largest supplier of cheap and safe vaccines? What the point in continuing to antagonize Hugo Chavez (who we actually have tried to kill), especially considering his country is a geographical convenient supplier of oil? Our interaction with the Americas is still Cold War par for the course (including training people in torture and terrorism via the School of the Americas program).

We certainly are maintaining an empire. Just because we don't use direct military intervention doesn't mean we're not putting down that pressure.

*meow*

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 5:37:42 PM   
ArtCatDom


Posts: 478
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Status: offline 		By the by, both English common law (the foundation of the US common law) and the republic structure of US government are both directly related to and comparable with the Roman government and law. The protection of plebian rights is the key distinguishing feature that sets us apart. The picture of the Roman government as being lead by an Emporer is largely misconception. Only a handful of "emporers" had full and complete power and even they had to answer to the Roman Senate. The Roman Republic and US Republic are very similar in a number of ways, including our concept of due process.

*meow*

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 5:49:48 PM   
DelightMachine


Posts: 652
Joined: 1/21/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: ArtCatDom
We continue to support corrupt inhumane authortarian governments while denouncing governments for no other reason that the leaders' "socialist history" or the socialist nature of the elected government. What's the point in continuing our embargo of Castro's Cuba with no Russia to make Cuba a real threat, especially considering they're the worlds largest supplier of cheap and safe vaccines?


Art, when it's the U.S. supporting a dictatorship, you get on your high horse and say we're supporting evil. When the nasty dictatorship is run by Fidel Castro, you only describe them as humanitarian.

quote:


What the point in continuing to antagonize Hugo Chavez (who we actually have tried to kill), especially considering his country is a geographical convenient supplier of oil? Our interaction with the Americas is still Cold War par for the course (including training people in torture and terrorism via the School of the Americas program).

We certainly are maintaining an empire. Just because we don't use direct military intervention doesn't mean we're not putting down that pressure.


Now you say we're being imperial, but we can't even kill Hugo Chavez (which would be a positive step for humanity).

I think you're very consistent: Hate America First, Last and Always.

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 5:52:05 PM   
ArtCatDom


Posts: 478
Joined: 1/20/2005
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth

Delight, (See I ALWAYS use the first name familiarity and for reference)
The 'southern state civil war machine' reference is a good argument against a Muslim empire. That's why I included India in the equation. Sure, with Pakistan as it's only adversary India's status is relatively secure, but add a nuclear Iran and it may tilt the balance of power. Under the policy of an enemy of my enemy is my ally, a Pakistan/Iran unified attack on India could occur. At that point China may feel threatened and act as the intermediary.

I think it will only take one "victory" to ally the rest of the Arab/Muslim states. It may be India, it may be Israel, but when it occurs the reaction of the West will be closely analyzed. Any weakness will be exploited. The people in these countries have no access to any other information than what they are getting from the propaganda machines within their countries. It will be a VERY united front if the powers in place choose to exploit it.


You grossly overestimate the homogeny of the Muslim world. Countries like Jordan, Turkey & Egypt stand in sharp contrast with nations like Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Iran. Both sets of nations sharply contrast with countries like Pakistan and Syria. Besides the conflict in such groupings, you have further SHARP and HEAVY social and religious divisions throughout Muslim nations. The Wahabi zealots of Saudi find the secularist Sunni in Turkey repulsive. Sufi Muslims are welcomed in Egypt and imprisoned in Iran. The Persians of Iran have a strong distaste for the wayward Mughals (Pakistani/Indian secularist and liberal Muslims). And so forth. They might ally for a short period of time, but it will quickly devolve (witness the temporary alliances against the Ottomans, the Nazis and Israel). I would also note that Arab nations remained mostly out of the conflicts between Pakistan and India. Iran has steadfastly refused to support Pakistan in its conflicts.

*meow*

(in reply to Mercnbeth)
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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/14/2006 3:12:44 AM   
theAndrew


Posts: 6
Joined: 4/14/2006
Status: offline 		The situation that you have mentioned is one that is a common theme of history down through the ages and not confined to the aftermath of the Revoluntionary War. It was rich,land owning,masons who decided to pursuade the poor and dispossesed to fight for them so they could get the lions share of the spoils from the colonies and not the British Merchant and ruling classes. It was nothing to do with King George,he was just a figurehead ruler who did what Parliament dictated. In all wars it is the rich that compel the poor to fight and die for them, so they can become richer. The poor recieve no reward for their suffering and valour save some cheap metal called medals. The redcoats were the actual kith and kin of the american colonists and did not relish having to fight them. Interestingly,the British fought half the nations of europe in another war that paraleled the Revolutionary War. The won that war yet lost the war for the colonies. They won most of the battles also. yet surrendered twice,once at saratoga and again at yorktown,when the Continental Army was supported by both french and spanish troops.

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/14/2006 3:20:08 AM   
theAndrew


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Joined: 4/14/2006
Status: offline 		The population of the Earth has risen by 3 billion in 25 years. It is now 6 billiion. in 20 years it is projected to reach 12 billion. Has each generation copulates so does the population increase. There will still be sufficient landmass since most of the planet is not occupied by people in great numbers. Europe is saturated but north america could still sustain 6 times it current population.Latin America 4 times,africa 20 times and asia 3 times.

(in reply to Lordandmaster)
Profile   Post #: 40
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