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RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/15/2010 3:06:35 PM   
samboct


Posts: 1817
Joined: 1/17/2007
Status: offline 		OK- now I'm really going to muddy the water with some facts...

I dug into finding out which agencies have spent what on the stimulus. In round numbers, there's been roughly $300B spent. The two biggest spenders I could find were the Dept. of Labor and the Dept of Education with some $60B each. Here's my source:

http://projects.propublica.org/tables/stimulus-spending-progress

Doing a little digging- Dept of Labor says that they've been spending money on retraining and extending unemployment benefits. I didn't dig into the Dept of Education. Oh yeah- the social security administration also got a $13B chunk. The remaining $150B+ looks like its spread through a wide range of agencies including DOE, NSF, DOD, NIH etc. This gybes with what I've heard- that basically of the stimulus money, roughly $150B went to science and engineering. But grants from these agencies are NOT service jobs.

My admittedly cursory glance at Dept of Labor showed that they were spending a lot of money on extending unemployment benefits. I must admit, I didn't see too much about funding service jobs and I'm not sure of the mechanism. Through the Small Business Administration? How large is this program anyhow?

Popeye et al- my comments were peak oil CONSUMPTION- not production. But I suspect that the globe is going to peak with oil consumption in a decade or so.

All you have to do is look at the economics of the current electric cars- and they're only going to get better. Basically to drive 100 miles takes say 5 gallons of gasoline or $15. The electricity costs at $0.20 per kW/hr are $7. Most electric cars are carrying a 35 kW battery- hence $7 per fill up. Even if the electric car only goes 100 miles per fill up- it's still half the cost of the IC version. Costs get even more favorable for electrics when you're sitting in traffic. The range issue is turning out to be a non event- at least for the early adopters. People are liking the electric Minis. In short- the marketplace is speaking and the handwriting is on the wall for the internal combustion engine. Also note that gasoline prices can only go up- where I've used expensive electricity. When wind, solar and other renewables get integrated better and solar efficiency improves, it's probable that electricity costs may decrease. Anybody wanna bet that gasoline prices could decrease in the next 20 years? Yes, I know the economics of batteries are currently ugly. But the marketplace 5 years from now will have battery technology 5 years from now- and there's finally some progress being made. The battery problem is going to get solved.

How does this involve the stimulus money? Well, better to be stringing new powerlines or digging ditches for cables than delivering pizzas. In one case, the money will have a prayer of creating new businesses- in the other case- it's a dead end.

Sam

(in reply to Musicmystery)
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RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/15/2010 4:18:13 PM   
luckydawg


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Again,


quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

quote:

Not much of that happening on a 10$ an hour subsidised job (with no security at all).


But I'll bet the unemployed guy whose $300/week benefits ran out will take the gig.

Unemployment has plenty of security which may be worth trading for income.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/SavingandDebt/LearnToBudget/how-much-jobless-pay-would-you-get.aspx




and again, Indonesia is a major producer of coconuts.





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RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/15/2010 7:24:19 PM   
Musicmystery


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quote:

How does this involve the stimulus money? Well, better to be stringing new powerlines or digging ditches for cables than delivering pizzas. In one case, the money will have a prayer of creating new businesses- in the other case- it's a dead end.


Back to the original point, it's not that one is better, or that better paying jobs pay better--it's that the money doesn't just fucking vanish. Somebody spends it on whatever and then that new somebody spends it and so on.

Whether the stimulus was well-advised is another matter. In NY, we fixed roads and bridges. We're happy with the result.

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Profile   Post #: 63
RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/15/2010 7:30:16 PM   
TheHeretic


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Joined: 3/25/2007
From: California, USA
Status: offline 		Try Health and Human Services for this one, Sam. Poverty maintenance is their area.

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RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/15/2010 8:18:00 PM   
samboct


Posts: 1817
Joined: 1/17/2007
Status: offline 		OK- I just did. Yeah, HHS got $89B Not seeing the type of jobs program you described. The original link is not a federal program- it's an LA program.

Finding stuff on HHS on retraining which is certainly arguable. There's an additional $5B allocated for TANF which basically replaces AFDC and 0.4B for community services block grants. You wanna come up with an amount and the actual program under discussion here? Seems to me that what's going on is that the federal money was given to communities to use as they saw fit- and LA came up with the program under discussion, i.e. allowing businesses to hire people with federal money. Seems to me that Republicans have often stated that they want the states to have more autonomy in how federal dollars are spent- and this is the result. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't there a conflation between federal dollars and a state program going on here?

Sam

< Message edited by samboct -- 11/15/2010 8:23:17 PM >

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Profile   Post #: 65
RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/15/2010 9:49:13 PM   
TheHeretic


Posts: 19100
Joined: 3/25/2007
From: California, USA
Status: offline 		The 5B for TANF might have been the 13% increase in the food stamp benefit, Sam. As I understand it, TSE wasn't a direct deal. It's administered by the counties, and they had to sign up to participate, but not just LA by any stretch. It has different names, in different places.

This 'puter suffers from a pdf allergy, unfortunately, or I might have come up with something a bit more detailed. Or maybe not. Absent a nice transparent government report on the program, I went with the NGO's link because it credibly confirms the fundamentals of what I was saying, and I chose that particular site to annoy any knee-jerk lefties who might want to pretend this whole program is just a right-wing myth.

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Profile   Post #: 66
RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/16/2010 9:04:22 AM   
samboct


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Status: offline 		Umm- not sure your point is coming across real well then. Yes, you've got federal dollars flowing to a state program in Cali which is doing something wacky. What's new here? The federal program left the details to the states, which arguably, was probably the right move. Given the time constraints of the stimulus spending- if you're grumble is that the money was wasted- I strongly disagree. If you're saying that more careful controls might have limited the amount spent on silly programs like this one in Cali- I agree too. But time constraints didn't permit such care- and then the perfect becomes the enemy of the good. From my perspective- if the previous Republican administrations had not driven the country off the cliff, this kind of stuff wouldn't be happening. Nor have you shown how much is being spent on these state programs in the context of the overall stimulus package.

Sam

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RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/16/2010 9:14:06 AM   
rulemylife


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quote:

ORIGINAL: luckydawg

and again, Indonesia is a major producer of coconuts.



Ive Got Coconuts


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RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/16/2010 3:02:09 PM   
willbeurdaddy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Nonsense.

Money spent is money spent--it doesn't care how or by whom.




Uhhhh, no. Try reading some of Obama's former advisors articles highlighting the difference between multipliers between government spending and tax cuts (ie increase in the capacity to spend/invest in the private sector).

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RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/16/2010 3:08:32 PM   
rulemylife


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quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Nonsense.

Money spent is money spent--it doesn't care how or by whom.




Uhhhh, no. Try reading some of Obama's former advisors articles highlighting the difference between multipliers between government spending and tax cuts (ie increase in the capacity to spend/invest in the private sector).


Gee Willbeur, since you responded to his post wouldn't the burden be on you to provide that information?

Since you seem to be so familiar with these articles it should not present much of a challenge for you to provide links.

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RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/16/2010 3:22:06 PM   
willbeurdaddy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Somebody spends it on whatever and then that new somebody spends it and so on.





Money SPENT is blind to who spends it. However money PAID for a pubic sector employee to spend is the same money that would either be spent or invested in the private sector. It is the invested money that creates the difference in multipliers.



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RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/16/2010 6:55:55 PM   
TheHeretic


Posts: 19100
Joined: 3/25/2007
From: California, USA
Status: offline 		Sam, that's like saying welfare isn't a federal program, because it's administered at the county level, and individual states get to make some of their own rules. The dollars that were being spent came from ARRA.

The point was never the specifics of the program, but the unintended consequences.

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Profile   Post #: 72
RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/17/2010 6:58:31 AM   
samboct


Posts: 1817
Joined: 1/17/2007
Status: offline 		This kind of bellyaching about a large federal program is why politicians can always run on a platform of "Rooting out corruption and waste". Its inherent in our system- giving federal dollars to states to spend how they wish is going to lead to some programs spending money frivolously in other peoples eyes. A good federal program gets most of the money to the right spot. I think the ARRA program did pretty well overall- and you haven't quantified how much of the money is being spent on the types of programs in the first link.

In contrast- as an example of a bad federal program-creation of DHS and homeland security spending has been a sick joke. Instead of spending money developing new sensor systems or improved blast proof luggage compartments, states got a windfall for police departments who bought things ranging from big screen TVs to donuts.

N.B.- I clearly don't believe that the amount of federal spending drives an economy. However, Uncle Sam is the biggest customer on the planet, and when he shops well, we all benefit. When he doesn't we all lose. It's not the amount of money he spends that's critical- it's how its spent.


Sam

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RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/17/2010 10:18:34 AM   
Musicmystery


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quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy
quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Somebody spends it on whatever and then that new somebody spends it and so on.


Money SPENT is blind to who spends it. However money PAID for a pubic sector employee to spend is the same money that would either be spent or invested in the private sector. It is the invested money that creates the difference in multipliers.

At issue, wilbeur, was the claim that such spending would have NO multiplier effect, not that it would dampen that effect.

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RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/17/2010 2:06:01 PM   
luckydawg


Posts: 2448
Joined: 9/2/2009
Status: offline 		actually Muse I made the orginal claim regarding Multipliers.

and for some reason you need to lie about what it was.


"But there will be little to no multiplier or actuall help to the economy from the temporary subsidised jobs. " post 47


It is claer that yet again, you have to change what was actually said to make your point.

That is because youpoint is BULLSHIT.

While the money does not care, the eceonopmy is affected.

You can deny and lie about that all you want.

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RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/17/2010 2:16:17 PM   
rulemylife


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Status: offline 		What's an eceonopmy?

That sounds pretty scary all by itself.

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RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/17/2010 2:28:12 PM   
popeye1250


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Status: offline 		"DON'T MAKE ME BUY INSURANCE BRO!"

"DON'T MAKE ME BUY INSURANCE BRO!"

ZZZZZZT!!!! "AGGGGGGH!!! AGGGGGGGHHHHH!!!! ARGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHH!"

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RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/17/2010 7:24:04 PM   
Musicmystery


Posts: 30259
Joined: 3/14/2005
Status: offline 		You said...

quote:

"But there will be little to no multiplier or actuall help to the economy from the temporary subsidised jobs.


I said...

quote:

At issue, wilbeur, was the claim that such spending would have NO multiplier effect, not that it would dampen that effect.


As for the rest, seek help.

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Profile   Post #: 78
RE: The Stimulus At Work - 11/19/2010 8:08:59 PM   
luckydawg


Posts: 2448
Joined: 9/2/2009
Status: offline 		and you pretend that they are the same.

rather lame, but its how you roll.

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