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RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/18/2012 8:41:34 PM   
LookieNoNookie


Posts: 12216
Joined: 8/9/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY


quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

1. Romney/Ryan in a landslide.


To be clear: Electoral College Landslide. Decisive popular vote.

Firm


And....your vote means just slightly more than shit.

Electoral college means everything.

As a Republican (who once voted for the person, not the party), once Gore won with 1,000,000+ votes (and should have been my Prez, happy to have him 'cause that's the deal I was taught....I think) but never became my Prez....I was done.

Haven't voted since, won't ever again, happy that all you folks feel it's important....not gunna.

(in reply to FirmhandKY)
Profile   Post #: 41
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/18/2012 8:41:53 PM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

And his $35 million dollar Hawaiian house?

In his place, would you rather spend winters in Chicago?

Been there for part of one, done that. fuck that cold, windy assed bullshit.

I lived in Hawaii for five years. We shivered in the winter, and had to wear socks with our flip flops. And occasionally a long sleeve shirt and pants.

Frigging cold ass weather.

Firm


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Profile   Post #: 42
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/18/2012 8:44:16 PM   
FirmhandKY


Posts: 8948
Joined: 9/21/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: LookieNoNookie

And....your vote means just slightly more than shit.

Electoral college means everything.

As a Republican (who once voted for the person, not the party), once Gore won with 1,000,000+ votes (and should have been my Prez, happy to have him 'cause that's the deal I was taught....I think) but never became my Prez....I was done.

Haven't voted since, won't ever again, happy that all you folks feel it's important....not gunna.

Damn, nookie, chilllll, dude.

This post almost merits an entire thread by itself, but I'd like to keep this one somewhat in the area of on topic.

Firm


_____________________________

Some people are just idiots.

(in reply to LookieNoNookie)
Profile   Post #: 43
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/18/2012 8:46:41 PM   
Hillwilliam


Posts: 19394
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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

And his $35 million dollar Hawaiian house?

In his place, would you rather spend winters in Chicago?

Been there for part of one, done that. fuck that cold, windy assed bullshit.

I lived in Hawaii for five years. We shivered in the winter, and had to wear socks with our flip flops. And occasionally a long sleeve shirt and pants.

Frigging cold ass weather.

Firm


I spent 18 years in miami.
Similar weather.
The other people in the Honors Dorm used to watch me go to 8:00 class to see if the weather was cold.

The saying was "If Dxxxxxx is wearing shoes to class, it's cold"

_____________________________

Kinkier than a cheap garden hose.

Whoever said "Religion is the opiate of the masses" never heard Right Wing talk radio.

Don't blame me, I voted for Gary Johnson.

(in reply to FirmhandKY)
Profile   Post #: 44
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/18/2012 8:56:45 PM   
DesideriScuri


Posts: 12225
Joined: 1/18/2012
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam
quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY
If you have the courage of your convictions about how the upcoming election will go, this is intended to be a consolidated location to be able to go back and find your predictions. Both for you, and for others.
After the election, I'd suggest that it would become the default place to eat crow and toss some light-hearted barbs.
So, here are my predictions:
1. Romney/Ryan in a landslide.
2. House gets more Republicans than it currently has.
3. Senate: not as confident here, but I'll go out on a limb and say it will become a Republican controlled body.
Anyone else?
Firm

1. Romney/Ryan in a close, but indisputable win. (Read a headline that both parties have already started lawyering up)
2. House stays R, and they may increase their majority.
3. Senate stays D, but barely.
If things play out the way I'm predicting, is it still going to be the House R's wasting time by not passing bills the Senate would pass?

DS, do you think the Senate will stay as they are or gain a coupla R seats?


I think the current mix has 43 R's, but I think they do pick up a few, but not enough to take control.

_____________________________

What I support:

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  • Personal Responsibility
  • Help for the truly needy
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(in reply to Hillwilliam)
Profile   Post #: 45
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/18/2012 9:05:18 PM   
LookieNoNookie


Posts: 12216
Joined: 8/9/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY


quote:

ORIGINAL: LookieNoNookie

And....your vote means just slightly more than shit.

Electoral college means everything.

As a Republican (who once voted for the person, not the party), once Gore won with 1,000,000+ votes (and should have been my Prez, happy to have him 'cause that's the deal I was taught....I think) but never became my Prez....I was done.

Haven't voted since, won't ever again, happy that all you folks feel it's important....not gunna.

Damn, nookie, chilllll, dude.

This post almost merits an entire thread by itself, but I'd like to keep this one somewhat in the area of on topic.

Firm



Hey...just speaking from personal experience....I still think everyone else should vote (just so they can mentally masturbate).

(in reply to FirmhandKY)
Profile   Post #: 46
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/18/2012 9:15:03 PM   
DarkSteven


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quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

If Obama were to win reelection, will he blame the previous administration for future failed policies, or will he continue to blame Bush.


Irrelevant. The economy's poised for a comeback, no matter who wins. Once that happens, no need to blame or apologize.

_____________________________

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Profile   Post #: 47
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/18/2012 9:45:16 PM   
SternSkipper


Posts: 7546
Joined: 3/7/2004
Status: offline 		Careful Steven, you'll ruin a geezer fantasy. What I don't think he realizes is that if the President has to put all his policy through with EOs next term, very few will give.the GOP the benefit of the doubt. And I think they will be acutely aware that the midterm without will make their little tea party triumph look comparatively more like Custer's outing at the Little Big Horn.


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Profile   Post #: 48
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/18/2012 10:00:46 PM   
erieangel


Posts: 2237
Joined: 6/19/2011
Status: offline 		It has only happened once before, but I think we could very well have an electoral college tie.

If that happens, the new House will chose the president--with each state getting one vote. The Senate will chose the vice president--with each senator getting a vote. Any tie in either house is broken by the sitting president--Biden, whom I imagine will remain VP in such a case even if the House votes for Romney.


(in reply to SternSkipper)
Profile   Post #: 49
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/18/2012 10:06:58 PM   
TheHeretic


Posts: 19100
Joined: 3/25/2007
From: California, USA
Status: offline 		But think of all the little lost Obamabots who can decide they'll go camping if Romney wins. The Occupists can become the next group the Dems promote, manipulate, and ultimately screw over, in their quest to get their power back.

I wonder if Oakland would just use firehoses in the first place, if it comes up again.

(in reply to SternSkipper)
Profile   Post #: 50
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/18/2012 10:11:48 PM   
kdsub


Posts: 12180
Joined: 8/16/2007
Status: offline 		Cardinals beat the Giants in 6 and Detroit in 7 for 12th WS

Oh… and Obama and McCaskill 4 and 6 more

Butch

< Message edited by kdsub -- 10/18/2012 10:12:20 PM >

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(in reply to FirmhandKY)
Profile   Post #: 51
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/19/2012 2:02:37 AM   
PunisherNOLA


Posts: 50
Joined: 9/27/2005
Status: offline 		Predictions for the upcoming election.. :

There will be three reported instances of voter fraud/intimidation, 2 by republicans, 1 by democrats.

One state currently in the "undecided" category will be too close to call on election night, prompting a recount.

House and Senate stay as they are, Dems gaining 5 seats in the house and 1 in the Senate.

Obama wins a close election, carried in the end by the woman vote.

Biden will be overheard telling a confidant, "I'm glad that shit's over."

In a shocking move, Obama sacks Hillary Clinton from her post as Secretary of State, appointing a former NFL player to replace her.

(in reply to kdsub)
Profile   Post #: 52
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/19/2012 4:46:31 AM   
DesideriScuri


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Joined: 1/18/2012
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quote:

ORIGINAL: erieangel
It has only happened once before, but I think we could very well have an electoral college tie.
If that happens, the new House will chose the president--with each state getting one vote. The Senate will chose the vice president--with each senator getting a vote. Any tie in either house is broken by the sitting president--Biden, whom I imagine will remain VP in such a case even if the House votes for Romney.


Are you certain it will be the "new" House, and not the sitting one? I know the Constitution states that the Senate will vote on the VP, but it might be interesting to see if that is really how it all works out.

The Republicans tend to carry more States than the Democrats, so throwing the election to the House may not help the Democrats. It might be interesting to see the Party vs. State demographics of the Senate. That is, how many States have R/D Senators. Just for shits and giggles, let's say that traditionally strong Democrat states have two Democrat Senators. According to the Rasmussen Electoral College Scoreboard (which has Obama leading 237-196), there are 17 States that are considered Safe or Likely Obama supporters. That adds up to 34 Senators. If the remaining 19 Democrat Senators are all split into different states, for their to be a tie (according to the 270towin site matching up the user-generated map to Rasmussen), the greatest number of States the D's can add is 4. If each State logs a vote towards the winner of the election in that State, Romney wins 29-21.

_____________________________

What I support:

  • A Conservative interpretation of the US Constitution
  • Personal Responsibility
  • Help for the truly needy
  • Limited Government
  • Consumption Tax (non-profit charities and food exempt)

(in reply to erieangel)
Profile   Post #: 53
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/19/2012 5:27:57 AM   
NewGuy456


Posts: 1
Joined: 10/19/2012
Status: offline 		My money thus far is on Obama by 2-4 percent of the popular vote with 290-330 EVs, the Democrats holding somewhere between fifty and sixty seats in the Senate, and a partial rollback of the Tea Party House wave of 2010 (although not necessarily enough to give the Democrats a majority). This is primarily based on the work of Nate Silver over at http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ and his wonderful statistical modeling skills (for the presidential and Senate races at least; he hasn't mentioned the House but I'm going on a gut feeling there).

< Message edited by NewGuy456 -- 10/19/2012 5:48:23 AM >

(in reply to DesideriScuri)
Profile   Post #: 54
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/19/2012 6:43:53 AM   
FirmhandKY


Posts: 8948
Joined: 9/21/2004
Status: offline 		FR:

Interesting article for the people who are saying that Obama will win based on the women's vote:

Three Reasons Why Obama Is Losing The Women's Vote

quote:

Just before the second presidential debate on October 16th, polls showed President Barack Obama’s 18-point so called “women’s vote” advantage had plummeted to a tie with Mitt Romney. Then, during the second debate, a question on the equality of women in the workplace was asked and both candidates sparred over “women’s issues” for almost 8 minutes. This is a fight the Obama team chose by saying Republicans are at “war with women.” So then, why did Obama’s advantage with women collapse? Will Obama’s continued use of the catchphrase “War on Women” reverse the trend?

Interviews and statistical evidence present some surprising answers, but before digging into the reasons, we need some context. First of all, a nationwide Pew Research Center Poll in mid-September had Obama with an 18-point lead with women. This same poll taken after the first debate had Obama and Romney tied among women voters at 47 percent. Meanwhile, a Gallup poll conducted after the first debate found that Romney had pulled to within one point of Obama with women who’re likely to vote (48-49 percent).


Firm

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Some people are just idiots.

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Profile   Post #: 55
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/19/2012 8:25:03 AM   
hot4bondage


Posts: 403
Joined: 7/29/2009
Status: offline 		~FR~

Romney will lose by less of a margin than the Libertarian vote of 4-5%, giving Republicans a convenient scapegoat for the next four years. Ron Paul write-ins will be undercounted but significant at around 2%.

(in reply to FirmhandKY)
Profile   Post #: 56
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/19/2012 8:29:13 AM   
subspaceseven


Posts: 467
Joined: 3/2/2012
Status: offline 		I think the GOP is going to lose a number of seats in the house as people realize the mistake the made in electing all those teabaggers, they have split the GOP. The Dems are going to make the House very close in numbers, I know in our area no one is really supporting the teabaggers, just booing them when they speak

Obama gets a second term and willard will flip flop on his wife saying he will not run again

Senate stays wit the Dems

(in reply to FirmhandKY)
Profile   Post #: 57
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/19/2012 8:38:59 AM   
Lucylastic


Posts: 40310
Status: offline 		What I hope and what I think are two separate things.
I hope Obama wins I hope the TP candidates get slammed.I hope stupid people stay home.

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Profile   Post #: 58
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/19/2012 8:57:44 AM   
DomYngBlk


Posts: 3316
Joined: 3/27/2006
Status: offline 		Obama in a landslide with Ohio and Florida Leading the way. Women/Hispanics will have won this election and presage the future..

Senate could go up to 60 if things fall into place in Nebraska, Wisconsin and North Dakota

House stays republican slightly. Boehner kicks Cantor and Ryan to the curb and brings in members to help him run from the 90's.

(in reply to Lucylastic)
Profile   Post #: 59
RE: Election Predictions/Eating Crow Thread - 10/19/2012 10:00:49 AM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucylastic
... I hope stupid people stay home.


Eeeeggggg! .... will .... not ... take ... bait ... will ... not ... take ... bait .....

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Some people are just idiots.

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Profile   Post #: 60
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