tweakabelle
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Joined: 10/16/2007
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A few people have described this conflict as a "religious war". While there are religious aspects to the conflict, I hesitate to label it as solely a religious war. This is a conflict on many levels. To describe it as being all of one of those levels is an over simplification of a very complex conflict.
The situation in Syria can be seen as a struggle between democratic secularists and an ageing dictatorship. At the commencement of hostilities, this was an accurate assessment of the situation. It still is accurate at one level for some of the players. As time went by, the fundamentalists joined in and now seem to be securing a dominant position in the local anti-Assad forces. It has also become clear that some of the rebels were interested in power rather than democracy, so at another level, there is the clash between "despotic secularists" and the dictatorship. There are also competing interests of the various sectarian communities within Syria - the Allawites, Shia, Sunni, Kurds and others, each with their own specific agenda. Internally within the rebel forces, there is another struggle between the democrats, the despotic secularists and the fundamentalists. If the rebels succeed in toppling Assad, this will be Part 2 of the Syrian Civil War, as the secular and fundamentalist forces clash for control and power
To that mess, we can add the external players. Lebanese and Syrian politics are difficult to separate at the best of times. Hezbollah has aligned itself with Assad, while other Lebanese Muslim sects support the rebels. Anti-Assad forces are using Lebanon as a staging base. Turkey, anxious to assert itself as a regional power outranking Egypt and even Israel, has chosen to align itself with the rebels offering them support supplies and sanctuary, as well as international diplomatic support. Israel intervenes whenever it feels Hezbollah is getting to strong for its liking. Israeli interventions are likely to continue, and one cannot discount the possibility of yet another Israeli land grab at some point in the future. The Saudis and Qataris are arming and financing the rebels, including the fundamentalists. I don't see this happening without tacit approval from the US.
On top of all that, there is the greater games being played out by the US and Iran, both of whose regional proxies are active in the conflict, and the old Copld War warriors of the US and Russia. Toppling Assad and replacing him with a leader more amenable to Western interests, or one who would align Syria with the Sunni coalition of Gulf States, the Saudis etc would be a coup for US interests. Iran is desperate to ensure its ally doesn't fall from power. Russia is Syria's traditional ally, arms supplier and international patron is equally anxious to protect its interests. The UK and France seem determined to ensure Assad's downfall
So the conflict is operating on many levels, with numerous players and interests involved, all with conflicting goals, interests and strategies. There is even an oil factor, with Syria being a minor oil exporter. Even if the Syrians could somehow work it all out between themselves, there are a variety of competing international interests to be catered for, which would complicate any internal resolution to the point of potentially torpedoing it.
All up little cause for optimism and a great deal to be pessimistic about. The only certainty is that the poor Syrian people, caught up in events completely beyond their control, will continue to be slaughtered by all sides. Even whether Syria itself survives events as a unified State is being increasingly questioned.
< Message edited by tweakabelle -- 5/31/2013 1:55:56 AM >
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RE: Syria: A Return to Cold War Days? - 
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