RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (Full Version)

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YN -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 10:43:24 AM)

quote:

Here is a question for you... if it was lead based, as the scientist suggests, then why didnt the crime rate drop when lead was banned and removed as paint?


The use of it in vehicles trumped any amount of lead paint on walls.(The scientists also found a correlation historically between the introduction of lead paint and and increase in violence earlier in the last century.) There were millions of vehicles functioning as mobile lead sprayers especially in urban areas, and metric tonnes of lead per year were dispersed in this manner in major cities.

And the English did not ban leaded fuel until years after the United States did, 1998 was when leaded petrol was fully banned in the UK according to their state media, while the United States started eliminating leaded fuel in the early 1970's.



tazzygirl -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 10:54:02 AM)

And yet, once again, the UK spike hit in 1999, peaked in 2005, and has already declined back to the levels before 1999 by 2010. So you are saying that the "airborn" effects would be wiped out if the population in 10 years?



YN -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 11:05:18 AM)

According to the studies, there is about a 20 year lag between children's lead blood levels and the criminal effects.

The Answer is Lead Poisoning



tazzygirl -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 11:19:22 AM)

So we can then extrapolate that clearing it up will take at least that long? According to the 20 year lag, the UK should still be experiencing high crime rates, no?

An edited thought. The studies also indicate that in small children, lead leads to permanent brain dysfunction, lower IQ and a host of other problems. Simply getting rid of the lead, to me, wouldnt be the result of all that suddenly disappearing....unless there is another excuse for the crime drop in the lead theory.



YN -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 11:38:38 AM)

Argue what you want, you have 8 other nations to explain the correlation in.

I have worked as an enforcer of the people's laws of my country during my life.

If a man driving by a mysterious house fire saves the children in the house, he is a hero. If this hero saves the children in nine mysterious fires, even the dullest policeman thinks there is more to it then coincidence.



tazzygirl -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 11:44:14 AM)

Since I am up for a challenge....

New Zealand saw just a blip in their crimes... while a decrease in their population.... and their reporting methods are different than ours... so saying that its only caused by lead is misleading at best.

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=nz&v=24



And I think the reasoning in that is sound.

From crime-in-nz-96-05.pdf

[image]local://upfiles/502828/FCC78235CD4A4815B3EF8814E3BDA62C.jpg[/image]

Oh, and they banned their lead in the 80's. But removal instructions on how to repaint was not given until the 1990's.



tazzygirl -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 11:58:04 AM)

Not sure what 8 you are referring too... the list you gave is

quote:

US, UK, Canada, Australia, West Germany, France and New Zealand.


US, UK and NZ are now done.

Canada.... population

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/78/Population_Canada_ver_4.png

Violent crime....

http://www.thefreeradical.ca/research/violentCrimeStatsCanada.html

And it continues to go up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_of_Canada_by_year

As far as lead levels....

http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/ewh-semt/pubs/contaminants/lead-plomb-eng.php

In 1976, the amount of lead that could be added to interior paint was limited by law, but exterior paint could still contain high amounts of lead provided it carried a warning label. Under the Surface Coating Materials Regulations, which came into force in 2005, the lead limit was reduced to its background level for both interior and exterior paints sold to consumers. Canadian paint manufacturers have been conforming to this background level in their interior and exterior consumer paints since 1991. Some specialty coatings (such as artist paints and metal touch-up coatings) can contain lead, but if they do, they must be labelled to warn against applying the paint to surfaces that are accessible to children and pregnant women.

Again, the correlation here isnt working for me.



YN -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 12:04:02 PM)

[image]http://philebersole.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/2-blog_lead_crime_international.jpg[/image]



YN -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 12:05:25 PM)

[image]http://philebersole.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/1-preschool-lead-index-crime5.jpg[/image]



YN -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 12:06:42 PM)

[image]http://philebersole.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/3-lead-graph-from-nevins-study.jpg[/image]



YN -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 12:08:12 PM)

[image]http://philebersole.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/3-lead-graph-from-nevins-study.jpg[/image]



YN -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 12:10:25 PM)

[image]http://philebersole.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/4-atmosphericpb-aggravatedassult.jpg[/image]

[image]http://philebersole.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/5-preschool-lead-burglary.jpg[/image]

Really, how much correlation do you need?



tazzygirl -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 12:48:59 PM)

Did you happen to catch the correction to the MJ story?

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime-correction

90% isnt correct. According to the writer, its closer to 50%. And that 50% is just of the increase, not the total amount.

The Mother Jones article, by Kevin Drum, cited a figure that 90% of the increase in crime since WWII might be due to lead. He was called out on this figure by blogger Deborah Blum, and Drum later printed a correction. He said the 90% figure is at the upper limit of the range of estimates, and that 50% is likely closer to the truth.

In the review I cited above, reference is made to research showing that “as much as 20%” of crime is “lead related.” One small point – Drum’s now 50% figure, as he points out, is the rise in crime, not the cause of all crime. The 20% figure cited in research is all crime – so these numbers may be compatible. Either way, the 90% figure likely overstates the connection.

Therefore, even accepting the 20% figure, that means 80% of crime has nothing to do (at least directly) with lead, and the sociologists are free to continue to speculate and study about the myriad of social causes of crime.

http://www.skepticblog.org/2013/01/14/lead-and-crime/

I never said lead wasnt a factor... I said it wasnt the only factor. You are the one who kept insisting lead caused all the problems. However, your own source states its roughly only half the issue.

So, now I am done jumping through your hoops. Time for you to take a little hop yourself. Explain the other half.



tazzygirl -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 12:56:26 PM)

quote:

Really, how much correlation do you need?


New Zealands still isnt working for me.... Why wasnt Britans higher?.....What was the initial reason for France's increase? I see no levels there when it started.... Canada's levels continued to spike yet crime flattened... why?....NZ did pretty much the same.... So did the US... if the 18 year period was still in effect, why didnt it spike at 18 for burglary? Why did Australia's crime drop while lead levels continued to rise?

I think people get all caught up in the shape of a curve and neglect that many of these simply arent as solid as people wish them to believe.



YN -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 12:58:04 PM)

So lead is only responsible for 50% of the crime and not 90% is your defense?

If I could cut the crime rate in half in any country, I would be considered a miracle policeman.



tazzygirl -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 1:04:58 PM)

No no no... lol... you are still getting that wrong. lead is at the most the cause of only 20% of all crime... or the increase of potentially 50%. In other words, if the crime rate jumps from 8 - 10, lead would be the cause of only 1. 50 to 100, lead would be the cause of only 25. Personally, I think its more socioeconomic factors than just lead. You have yet to attribute the only 50% of the increase.. or... the 80% of the total.. that is not lead related. Now, address the missing 50% of the increase, or the 80% of the total, please.



YN -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 1:10:46 PM)

How about you explaining just what the "baby booomers" do as a class to commit all these crimes you attribute to their criminality?



YN -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 1:14:10 PM)

And one blogger's opinions does not trump multiple scientists in nine countries, as well as their national public health and crime records.



tazzygirl -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 1:23:51 PM)

The age bracket alone would cause much of that. 18 - 24 has always seen the most crimes committed. The fact that during the Boomer period there were even more in that age bracket compared to any other time would be attributing factor. I gave you the numbers before.

Our 55 and older population has increased, per census numbers, from 80K in 1980 to 130k in 2010. At some time or another, they were in that 18 - 24 bracket.



[image]local://upfiles/502828/030A5B8E3ACA4B84A6808D27A25E0CB3.jpg[/image]



tazzygirl -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 1:25:00 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: YN

And one blogger's opinions does not trump multiple scientists in nine countries, as well as their national public health and crime records.


Seems enough to make your own source back off his numbers.



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