RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (Full Version)

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YN -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 6:52:50 PM)

Yes that "drop" in 1992 is impressive.



YN -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 7:06:31 PM)

Here is a more interesting graph -

[image]http://www.motherjones.com/files/blog_lead_homicide_2013.jpg[/image]



tazzygirl -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 7:15:35 PM)

Guess what else happened in 1992? Possibly because you dont live here? you may not know.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots

Lots of violence then.

Victims of violence in 1992 reported that about 33% of offenders were less than 21 years old, about 86% were male, and 29% were black. About a third of the victims reported that they were attacked by multiple offenders.

Pst... if only 1/3 is below the age of 21 at this time, how old is the other 2/3?

As to your graph.... is this the US? Your others stated an 18 year lag... or a 23 year lag... now we have a 21 year lag?



YN -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 7:47:04 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

Guess what else happened in 1992? Possibly because you dont live here? you may not know.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots

Lots of violence then.

Victims of violence in 1992 reported that about 33% of offenders were less than 21 years old, about 86% were male, and 29% were black. About a third of the victims reported that they were attacked by multiple offenders.

Pst... if only 1/3 is below the age of 21 at this time, how old is the other 2/3?

As to your graph.... is this the US? Your others stated an 18 year lag... or a 23 year lag... now we have a 21 year lag?



Here is a copy of your FBI online offender demographics reports, which go back to 1993 and which rather clearly show your criminal cohort being in the 18-25 year bracket. It appears that more than another third are between 21-25 years of age in each case.- Age-Specific Arrest Rates and Race-Specific Arrest Rates for Selected Offenses, 1993-2001

Do you think the graph would change significantly if the murder rate was compared a year earlier, on a 20 year lag?

Here is a chart of the age of offenders during the time period -

[image]http://origin-ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0749379798000099-gr2.gif[/image]



tazzygirl -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 7:54:36 PM)

http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/VIOCRM.PDF

My source... go argue with them.

Btw, you can be arrested and found not guilty. You can be arrested and then released because of new evidence. You can be arrested and never go to trial because charges are dropped due to lack of evidence.

Lots happens between charges and conviction.

I prefer the crime reports for certain things. Arrest reports only show who was arrested.



Powergamz1 -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 7:56:59 PM)

The UCR crime reports are incident reports, not convictions.
quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/VIOCRM.PDF

My source... go argue with them.

Btw, you can be arrested and found not guilty. You can be arrested and then released because of new evidence. You can be arrested and never go to trial because charges are dropped due to lack of evidence.

Lots happens between charges and conviction.

I prefer the crime reports for certain things. Arrest reports only show who was arrested.




tazzygirl -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 8:00:56 PM)

I know they are crime reports. I never said they were conviction reports.



YN -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 8:06:27 PM)

I see. The young men and women were falsely accused arrested and "baby boomers" actually were responsible for the crimes these young men were accused of.

Do you have a similar explanation for the correlation between tons of lead/person and the ~20 year later homicide rates over the last century in the United States?



Powergamz1 -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 8:09:10 PM)

They aren't arrest reports either... they are incident reports, which is one more reason that they are less than useful for assessing the actual amount, effect, or causes of crime.
quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

I know they are crime reports. I never said they were conviction reports.




tazzygirl -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 8:11:51 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: YN

I see. The young men and women were falsely accused arrested and "baby boomers" actually were responsible for the crimes these young men were accused of.

Do you have a similar explanation for the correlation between tons of lead/person and the ~20 year later homicide rates over the last century in the United States?


Do you have the source for that graph? Its not in the link you provided.

Couple that with the fact that many people are arrested wrongly based upon a discription given by a victim. Look at the recent shootings by the cop in California... wasnt one of the victims a matter of mistaken identity who they thought was the cop on a rampage?

Not to mention we are discussing violent crimes.... your chart doesnt specify with crimes its related too, which is why I ask for the source.



tazzygirl -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 8:13:38 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Powergamz1

They aren't arrest reports either... they are incident reports, which is one more reason that they are less than useful for assessing the actual amount, effect, or causes of crime.
quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

I know they are crime reports. I never said they were conviction reports.




I disagree. If I am assaulted, give you a description of a young male, 18 - 20, and you arrest the wrong guy... your numbers are going to be way off.

And what of the one's who are never arrested?



tj444 -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 8:16:20 PM)

FR-

with the crime rate dropping in the US as shown in said graphs, what has been happening with the police? are the numbers of police also dropping in the same way or have they increased? My impression is they have increased even as the crime rate has dropped.. I see cops all over the place, there seems to be no shortage of em.. I wonder how the number of cops (including private security) affect crime rates... does their presence keep people in line and prevent crime?



tazzygirl -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 8:19:16 PM)

I read something tonight that said, at least in NY in the 90's, the police were directly responsible for a 30% reduction.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-02/uoc--nrr021207.php



YN -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 8:56:25 PM)

This graph?

[image]http://origin-ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0749379798000099-gr2.gif[/image]

It is from the Youth Violence in the United States: article in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, or so the inter-web claims.



njlauren -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 9:16:25 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BamaD


quote:

ORIGINAL: YN

So those drug gangsters terrorizing the streets of United States cities in the 1980's ans 1990s were "baby boomers?"

To a great extent yes.

Unlikely.....the people pushing drugs are generally young, the life expectancy is pretty short, and most of them fall into the 18-24 year old category. So in the early 80s, you might have had some at the tail end of the baby boom (1960-1964), but by the time the drug wars really heated up, in the late 80's and 90's, you were dealing with gen x.


The other factor is who the drug dealers are, and by far, the ones causing the crime boom were young, inner city, young people, mostly minority, while drug dealing and such is not exactly limited to cities (example, Crystal Meth for a long time was concentrated in more rural areas as opposed to coke and heroin), but the demographic of the drug pushers is not the typical baby boomer, and timewise more likely than not to be post the boom.



njlauren -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 9:24:21 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

I read something tonight that said, at least in NY in the 90's, the police were directly responsible for a 30% reduction.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-02/uoc--nrr021207.php


Part of it was that crack lost its popularity, but much was attributed to to changes in policing methods, pressure pointing troubled areas, and also the broken window theory of policing, i.e instead of concentrating on high level dealers and ignoring low level crimes, they pressure pointed even low level crimes and found, for example, that pulling people for low level crimes resulted in getting guns off the streets and so forth. Despite what the NRA said, part of it was the assault weapons ban, it made access to the kind of weapons that were juicing up the murder rate a lot more expensive on the black market, and it cut down the mass killings that used to be common, where they would spray a street corner, not caring who they hit. In a sense, there was a zero tolerance with crime, and it did bring down things tremendously, and also changed perceptions as well.



tazzygirl -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 9:40:09 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: YN

This graph?

[image]http://origin-ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0749379798000099-gr2.gif[/image]

It is from the Youth Violence in the United States: article in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, or so the inter-web claims.



Thats the age specific rates for murder alone. What of all the other violent crimes?

Fig. 2. Age-specific arrest rates for murder, United States, 1965–1994. Source: Age-Specific Arrest Rates and Race-Specific Arrest Rates for Selected Offenses, 1965–1992 Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Washington, D.C.: December 1993, 1994 unpublished.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0749379798000099



YN -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 9:45:06 PM)

Have at it - http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/additional-ucr-publications/age_race_arrest93-01.pdf



BamaD -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 9:47:04 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: YN

Yes that "drop" in 1992 is impressive.

And since that time US crime rates have cut in half, that is where it began.



tazzygirl -> RE: Baby Boomers and the crime rate (6/2/2013 9:48:44 PM)

quote:

Unlikely.....the people pushing drugs are generally young, the life expectancy is pretty short, and most of them fall into the 18-24 year old category. So in the early 80s, you might have had some at the tail end of the baby boom (1960-1964), but by the time the drug wars really heated up, in the late 80's and 90's, you were dealing with gen x.


1964 would have been 18 in 1982.

If you reference back to the chart here http://www.collarchat.com/fb.asp?m=4458412

You will see many of those in the "boomer" years were between 5 and 15 in 1970. By 1980, they were between 15 and 25... the target group we are discussing here.

By 1990, they were between 25 and 35. If a generation grows up with the violence that the boomer generation got into, they will continue that violence up to a later age.

In 1947, 3.8 million babies came into the world and there were 3.9 million in 1952. Over 4 million babies were born each year from 1954 until the end of the boom in 1964. At that time, they were over 40 percent of the population in the United States.

http://www.babyboomermedia.com/facts-about-baby-boomers/#ixzz2V7pWQAKb

Between 1970 and 1990, violent crime saw upward mobility... in line with the aging of 40% of the population.



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