Zonie63
Posts: 2826
Joined: 4/25/2011
From: The Old Pueblo
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Phydeaux
Soooo lets see:
Some problems with this article.
Why, suddenly, would is good relations with Iran be in America's best interest.
I'm not sure that it would constitute "good" relations, although normalization of relations might not be a bad idea at this point.
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We do no trading with them. They have nothing we want. The sunni's regard them as apostates - but then thats true regardless of whether we ally or not.
Any thing iran wants it can get from China, Russia or India cheaper.
I know everyone thinks "oil" but the us will be oil independent in 2-5 years even without the Iranians - and while the Iranians need our technology - really.. who cares.
They could get technology from other countries too. Whether we do any trading with Iran is another matter, although if we embrace a policy that the U.S. should not do business with nations which are not free, I would support that. Just as long as we're consistent in such a policy. Of course, it would mean cutting off trade with nations like Saudi Arabia and China, just to name a couple.
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On the flip side, they have a radical islamic agenda that calls for the death of America and Israel at every opportunity.
They had the same agenda back in 1979 when they took over our embassy, while our government did nothing. They had the same agenda when our government traded arms for hostages, since our leadership at the time believed the communist agenda was more of a threat than the radical Islamic agenda. In retrospect, that view may have been somewhat short-sighted, considering how events ultimately unfolded.
Nonetheless, it seems that the Iranians have had this "death to America" agenda for a long time, and, based on our government's policies and actions around the world, it never seemed to bother the U.S. leadership all that much - at least not as much as other things. It's only because they've been dabbling in nuclear technology that suddenly our leaders have started to take notice, but it seems a bit late now to suddenly decide that Iran is a real problem when they've been sitting on their hands all these decades.
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Our current pussy-in-chief was willing to support the revolts in dictators in libya, egypt - but not Iran - so there is no real chance the attitudes of the government will change - nor will a coup be staged.
There's never been any consistency in U.S. foreign policy. Again, if our government ever decided that all dictatorial and oppressive regimes around the world are bad and should be opposed consistently, then that would be one thing. But the blatant inconsistencies and outright hypocrisy have certainly not escaped notice.
From a practical standpoint, it might have been easier for the U.S. to operate in Egypt and Libya, while Iran is a bit tougher. I would surmise that our government has been studying the situation and may be deciding that moving against Iran, either overtly or covertly, may be too great a risk at this point. I don't know that it makes anyone a "pussy" as much as taking a practical realistic view as to what is doable and what isn't.
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Iran having a bomb will:
a). Be a prestige blow to the US. Something china/russia wants.
I don't see how it would be a prestige blow. What little "prestige" we had left has been squandered and torn to shreds over the years. China and Russia have their own geopolitical perceptions, not all of which are congruent with each other. If we just left this issue alone and didn't make much of a stink about Iran, then there wouldn't be any prestige blow and nothing for China or Russia to crow about.
But if we take military action against Iran, then that could lead to even greater complications with China and Russia than a blow to our prestige.
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b). Drive the saudis and others closer into the US camp.
Maybe. But do we really want them in our camp?
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c). Getting close to getting a bomb will be a spur for israel to act.
Another maybe. But if Israel acts, then it could trigger responses from other nations in the region.
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Nuclear proliferation is not in anyone's interests. But if china, russia, and india want a nuclear armed iran on its doorstep - I say they are welcome to the crazies.
I agree. Geographically, Iran is in their neighborhood, so they're the ones who would ultimately have to deal with the consequences of a nuclear-armed Iran. We're still on the other side of the planet, and the fact is, China, Russia, and India have all had to deal with the same kind of terrorism from extremists, so if they're okay with Iran having nukes (and the possibility that they could be used in their own backyard), then why should we be so worried about it?
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People regard the straights of hormuz as strategic us interest. Except...with self dependence on oil - it isn't. It becomes an india/europe/china problem.
Unfortunately, ever since World War II, our policymakers seem to have a knack of making other nations' problems into our own problems. Since our government acts as part of an alliance, the strategic interests of other nations become U.S. strategic interests as well.
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Sanctions are in the US interest to protect Israel, and to act as a cost for pursuing nuclear weapons.
Well, I think an agenda involving "death to America" should be enough. Regardless of whatever their complaint might be, if they're wishing death upon me, then I doubt we'd be able to reach any kind of rapprochement. But maybe they're toning it down a bit, getting some more moderate voices in their government. It might be worthwhile to see what they have to say. It doesn't mean we have to commit to anything.
Protecting Israel may or may not be in the U.S. interest. That seems to be the major sticky point in our dealings in that region, so it's a question which Americans should seriously examine in terms of our long-term strategic interests.
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However, the united states has made it clear that drop the weapons program, submit to un inspections and the world will drop the sanctions.
The iranians show no interest. So what on earth is new here?
Not much, but we'll see. If Iran does develop nuclear weapons and uses it (likely against some other nation not the United States), then we can tell all these other nations "We told ya so!" Then, multiple nations would retaliate against Iran, which would be made permanently uninhabitable. The Iranians know this; I don't think they're that crazy. Certainly, China and Russia wouldn't want Iran using nukes either. If it's to the point where it's inevitable and they're just trying to gain some positive control to ensure stability and that they're not used if Iran is going to get them anyway.
To be honest, I'm more concerned that a country like Pakistan has the ability to build nuclear weapons. It seems like such a wild, lawless place, where any faction could gain power and before we know it, we could have a bunch of nuclear-armed crazies in that nation. Nuclear power and nuclear technology are a genie which escaped from the bottle long ago.
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