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[Poll]

Will the American Empire collapse?


America is and will remain strong for 100+ years
  18% (8)
America is declining in power, collapse in 75 years
  6% (3)
Collapse in 50 years
  13% (6)
Collapse in 25 years
  9% (4)
Collapse in 15 years
  6% (3)
Collapse in 10 years
  11% (5)
The collapse has already happened
  23% (10)
It's hard to say
  9% (4)


Total Votes : 43
(last vote on : 1/29/2014 5:02:40 PM)
(Poll will run till: -- )
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RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/17/2014 10:51:03 AM   
vincentML


Posts: 9980
Joined: 10/31/2009
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quote:

It is basically overcoming the US Anti-missile defense capabilities.

And having no concern about the destruction of their own cities? Is M.A.D. outmoded?

(in reply to FellowSlave)
Profile   Post #: 41
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/17/2014 11:00:30 AM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline 		If we are talking China, no; they have no concern about it for a few reasons, the largest of which is they have their chips in our guidance systems.

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Profile   Post #: 42
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/17/2014 12:15:51 PM   
FellowSlave


Posts: 97
Joined: 11/23/2013
Status: offline
quote:

And having no concern about the destruction of their own cities? Is M.A.D. outmoded?


They try to develop missile defense on their own, but at this time they are far behind. China steals (and sometimes is rewarded) most of US military technology.
There is no reason for others to attack the US. China may collapse the US economy any time they want, the US has only military options.

(in reply to vincentML)
Profile   Post #: 43
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/17/2014 12:22:42 PM   
DesideriScuri


Posts: 12225
Joined: 1/18/2012
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
quote:

That's it? They have nothing else? They have no "spy" planes? No recon? Nothing else? I find that to be interesting.

Well, I am awaiting further reports from my agents in the field. However, unless you think either Russia or China would attempt a land invasion of the United States the core of power and mobility lies with the Carrier Groups I think.


Right. No economic or nuclear war, then. Good.

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(in reply to vincentML)
Profile   Post #: 44
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/17/2014 2:03:25 PM   
vincentML


Posts: 9980
Joined: 10/31/2009
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quote:

There is no reason for others to attack the US. China may collapse the US economy any time they want, the US has only military options.


I have heard this many times. As often as in my younger days when we were told the Japanese would buy all our best real estate. So, I need someone to explain to me exactly how China would collapse the American economy without seriously damaging her own. Yes, I know we owe a substantial amount of money to the Chinese debt holders. I have read and it seems a truism that if you owe the bank a modest amount of money with collateral the bank owns you but if you owe the bank a huge amount of money without collateral you own the bank. I think the latter represents the relationship between China and America. What can the Chinese do? Dump their debt holdings? At worst that would cause a spike in near term interest rates, good for retirees, and easily adaptable by business. The dollar would increase in value from increasing foreign demand. There would be adjustments but we lived with higher short term rates before. The Stock Market would recover I'm sure. So do tell me what dark scenario do you envision when you say the Chinese could collapse our economy any time they want. Also, while you're at it, explain how that would effect Chinese sales to our consumers and what impact it would have on Chinese jobs.

(in reply to FellowSlave)
Profile   Post #: 45
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/17/2014 2:04:46 PM   
vincentML


Posts: 9980
Joined: 10/31/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

If we are talking China, no; they have no concern about it for a few reasons, the largest of which is they have their chips in our guidance systems.

Please explain that to me. Thanks. Do you mean their rare earth metals?

< Message edited by vincentML -- 1/17/2014 2:05:07 PM >

(in reply to mnottertail)
Profile   Post #: 46
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/17/2014 2:14:53 PM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline 		It may be that many people (and I have talked about this repeatedly) have not paid attention to some of the debriefings after the Iraq war had settled down a bit, but.....the Joint Chiefs testified that parts were hard to get for their guidance systems and so on from China, (shades of forgetting that bit from Adam Smith...ET AL) and other electronic parts that were sourced by China for our military gear.   Now, if we can toss a blowup code into Iranian reactors, and decrypt the heaviest commerical and governmental  encryption. . . and to top it off, we transfer technology to the Chinese in fuckin Tsunamis now, plus the fact that oh, sometime in the middle of Ws last administration the Chinese took an everyday nothin for nothin untraceable non-warhead missle and blew it thru an old satellite of theirs to the suprise and great consternation of the globe (we cried, No Fair) and then it fell off the face of the earth, that story.....but think about it......and who makes our computers and whatnot for our supertech war machine, the most technically BASED and advanced in history on the face of the earth?  Where do the parts that do the gizmo actually come from?  

Not Ypsilanti.  Not El Segundo. 

As a result of that there was an executive order, about making our own defense shit. lock stock and barrel as well as a fertilizer ingredients and some other things being a national security priority...........and I am betting was ignored about as big as the executive order to close gitmo.

_____________________________

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Profile   Post #: 47
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/17/2014 2:20:50 PM   
DesideriScuri


Posts: 12225
Joined: 1/18/2012
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
quote:

There is no reason for others to attack the US. China may collapse the US economy any time they want, the US has only military options.

I have heard this many times. As often as in my younger days when we were told the Japanese would buy all our best real estate. So, I need someone to explain to me exactly how China would collapse the American economy without seriously damaging her own. Yes, I know we owe a substantial amount of money to the Chinese debt holders. I have read and it seems a truism that if you owe the bank a modest amount of money with collateral the bank owns you but if you owe the bank a huge amount of money without collateral you own the bank. I think the latter represents the relationship between China and America. What can the Chinese do? Dump their debt holdings? At worst that would cause a spike in near term interest rates, good for retirees, and easily adaptable by business. The dollar would increase in value from increasing foreign demand. There would be adjustments but we lived with higher short term rates before. The Stock Market would recover I'm sure. So do tell me what dark scenario do you envision when you say the Chinese could collapse our economy any time they want. Also, while you're at it, explain how that would effect Chinese sales to our consumers and what impact it would have on Chinese jobs.


Never heard of cutting your losses, eh?


_____________________________

What I support:

  • A Conservative interpretation of the US Constitution
  • Personal Responsibility
  • Help for the truly needy
  • Limited Government
  • Consumption Tax (non-profit charities and food exempt)

(in reply to vincentML)
Profile   Post #: 48
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/17/2014 8:29:08 PM   
FellowSlave


Posts: 97
Joined: 11/23/2013
Status: offline
quote:

I have heard this many times. As often as in my younger days when we were told the Japanese would buy all our best real estate. So, I need someone to explain to me exactly how China would collapse the American economy without seriously damaging her own. Yes, I know we owe a substantial amount of money to the Chinese debt holders. I have read and it seems a truism that if you owe the bank a modest amount of money with collateral the bank owns you but if you owe the bank a huge amount of money without collateral you own the bank. I think the latter represents the relationship between China and America. What can the Chinese do? Dump their debt holdings? At worst that would cause a spike in near term interest rates, good for retirees, and easily adaptable by business. The dollar would increase in value from increasing foreign demand. There would be adjustments but we lived with higher short term rates before. The Stock Market would recover I'm sure. So do tell me what dark scenario do you envision when you say the Chinese could collapse our economy any time they want. Also, while you're at it, explain how that would effect Chinese sales to our consumers and what impact it would have on Chinese jobs.


The thing is China holds the real assets and manufacturing capacity, the US has paper. Of course, in economic war both sides suffer. The point is not to destroy the US, they can not do that, but to destroy dollar dominance (they are quietly doing it already). It creates internal problems (devaluation of the US dollar) in the US and it reduces US international interventionism. Imagine for example China to announce openly they are selling trillion dollar worth US Treasury bonds and buying gold to replace them. The Federal Reserve would attempt to buy most of them to control rates, but only the effect caused by psychology of financial traders would be devastating. Sure the markets recover, but considering how unstable, debt-saturated the whole system is a lot of paper wealth would vanish forever. China dependence of US markets is often over-estimated, they have tightly controlled economy that helps them to absorb blows better. Selling to US consumers for IOU-s (they never get paid) does not make much sense anyway. It does not have future.

(in reply to vincentML)
Profile   Post #: 49
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/17/2014 10:15:34 PM   
EdBowie


Posts: 875
Joined: 8/11/2013
Status: offline 		Those are both comic book fantasies.

China hasn't been behind on military technology for over a decade. And the only thing they could do economically to the US would be to throw away their own investments.


There is a much more realistic possibility: That the vast majority of the Chinese population who are still living under Maoist conditions gets tired of carrying the handful who are smogging up the cities, and depleting the resources to enjoy a Western lifestyle, that China could tear itself apart itself from the inside, and drag it's client economies down with it.

And the American quality of life wouldn't exist without Chinese goods.


quote:

ORIGINAL: FellowSlave

quote:

And having no concern about the destruction of their own cities? Is M.A.D. outmoded?


They try to develop missile defense on their own, but at this time they are far behind. China steals (and sometimes is rewarded) most of US military technology.
There is no reason for others to attack the US. China may collapse the US economy any time they want, the US has only military options.



_____________________________

Reading for understanding, instead of for argumentation, has its advantages.

(in reply to FellowSlave)
Profile   Post #: 50
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/18/2014 8:15:27 AM   
vincentML


Posts: 9980
Joined: 10/31/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

It may be that many people (and I have talked about this repeatedly) have not paid attention to some of the debriefings after the Iraq war had settled down a bit, but.....the Joint Chiefs testified that parts were hard to get for their guidance systems and so on from China, (shades of forgetting that bit from Adam Smith...ET AL) and other electronic parts that were sourced by China for our military gear.   Now, if we can toss a blowup code into Iranian reactors, and decrypt the heaviest commerical and governmental  encryption. . . and to top it off, we transfer technology to the Chinese in fuckin Tsunamis now, plus the fact that oh, sometime in the middle of Ws last administration the Chinese took an everyday nothin for nothin untraceable non-warhead missle and blew it thru an old satellite of theirs to the suprise and great consternation of the globe (we cried, No Fair) and then it fell off the face of the earth, that story.....but think about it......and who makes our computers and whatnot for our supertech war machine, the most technically BASED and advanced in history on the face of the earth?  Where do the parts that do the gizmo actually come from?  

Not Ypsilanti.  Not El Segundo. 

As a result of that there was an executive order, about making our own defense shit. lock stock and barrel as well as a fertilizer ingredients and some other things being a national security priority...........and I am betting was ignored about as big as the executive order to close gitmo.

Thanks

(in reply to mnottertail)
Profile   Post #: 51
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/18/2014 8:23:46 AM   
vincentML


Posts: 9980
Joined: 10/31/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
quote:

There is no reason for others to attack the US. China may collapse the US economy any time they want, the US has only military options.

I have heard this many times. As often as in my younger days when we were told the Japanese would buy all our best real estate. So, I need someone to explain to me exactly how China would collapse the American economy without seriously damaging her own. Yes, I know we owe a substantial amount of money to the Chinese debt holders. I have read and it seems a truism that if you owe the bank a modest amount of money with collateral the bank owns you but if you owe the bank a huge amount of money without collateral you own the bank. I think the latter represents the relationship between China and America. What can the Chinese do? Dump their debt holdings? At worst that would cause a spike in near term interest rates, good for retirees, and easily adaptable by business. The dollar would increase in value from increasing foreign demand. There would be adjustments but we lived with higher short term rates before. The Stock Market would recover I'm sure. So do tell me what dark scenario do you envision when you say the Chinese could collapse our economy any time they want. Also, while you're at it, explain how that would effect Chinese sales to our consumers and what impact it would have on Chinese jobs.


Never heard of cutting your losses, eh?


China’s holdings of U.S. debt may actually be a bigger worry for China than for America. “When people ask ‘how bad would it be for the United States if China withdrew its money,’ the answer is, 'how bad would it be for China if the United States went bankrupt?'” says Richard Kogan of the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities. “China has a big stake in the solvency of the United States. They want us to pay all their principal and interest and keep buying the stuff they make.”

There’s little or no evidence, in fact, that China’s foreign-debt holdings have ever been used for political purposes. China mostly invests its reserves the way any nation seeking financial stability would.

The vast scale of borrowing by the U.S. government is a different story altogether and a legitimate worry. SOURCE Not my opinion only.

(in reply to DesideriScuri)
Profile   Post #: 52
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/18/2014 8:28:32 AM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline 		And that is correct in the present circumstance.  However, should a country that holds foreign debt find themselves in a huge cashflow situation in their own downward spiral, they will jettison whatever they can to make cash.

While it seems at present the US going out of round is far more likely, the contrapositive also is in the mix.

_____________________________

Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30


(in reply to vincentML)
Profile   Post #: 53
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/18/2014 8:35:51 AM   
vincentML


Posts: 9980
Joined: 10/31/2009
Status: offline
quote:

There is a much more realistic possibility: That the vast majority of the Chinese population who are still living under Maoist conditions gets tired of carrying the handful who are smogging up the cities, and depleting the resources to enjoy a Western lifestyle, that China could tear itself apart itself from the inside, and drag it's client economies down with it.

That is a possible scenario, Ed. The Soviet collapse model. However, China is rapidly building a middle class, which the Soviets never did, and there is in China the possibility of upward mobility which the people are aware of. It is visible in the cities and tales brought back to the villages by workers on holiday. So, doubtful, I'm guessing.

(in reply to EdBowie)
Profile   Post #: 54
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/18/2014 8:38:01 AM   
vincentML


Posts: 9980
Joined: 10/31/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

And that is correct in the present circumstance.  However, should a country that holds foreign debt find themselves in a huge cashflow situation in their own downward spiral, they will jettison whatever they can to make cash.

While it seems at present the US going out of round is far more likely, the contrapositive also is in the mix.

If China were in a downward spiral, the entire world would be in deep shit, doncha think? For a while anyway.

(in reply to mnottertail)
Profile   Post #: 55
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/18/2014 9:36:02 AM   
EdBowie


Posts: 875
Joined: 8/11/2013
Status: offline 		I think the party officials feel that 'trickle down' will work fast enough, I'm not so sure.


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

quote:

There is a much more realistic possibility: That the vast majority of the Chinese population who are still living under Maoist conditions gets tired of carrying the handful who are smogging up the cities, and depleting the resources to enjoy a Western lifestyle, that China could tear itself apart itself from the inside, and drag it's client economies down with it.

That is a possible scenario, Ed. The Soviet collapse model. However, China is rapidly building a middle class, which the Soviets never did, and there is in China the possibility of upward mobility which the people are aware of. It is visible in the cities and tales brought back to the villages by workers on holiday. So, doubtful, I'm guessing.



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Profile   Post #: 56
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/18/2014 1:21:24 PM   
Moonhead


Posts: 16520
Joined: 9/21/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
China is rapidly building a middle class, which the Soviets never did...

Are you sure? The lower levels of party officials were pretty well established as a defacto bourgeousie long before the collapse of the Soviet Union.

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Profile   Post #: 57
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/18/2014 1:33:17 PM   
GoddessManko


Posts: 2257
Joined: 3/6/2013
From: Dante's Inferno
Status: offline 		the US's GDP per capita is larger than most industrialized nations (and entire continents) combined, so how exactly is China supposed to collapse the US economy? Especially since we are their #1 consumer?
Will there be a market correction? Yes, it was always inevitable and 30 years in the making. The issue is inflation, not debt. Debt is good in most cases.

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Profile   Post #: 58
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/18/2014 1:35:39 PM   
crazyml


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Joined: 7/3/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: GoddessManko

the US's GDP per capita is larger than most industrialized nations (and entire continents) combined,

Nope.

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Profile   Post #: 59
RE: Will the American Empire collapse? - 1/18/2014 3:45:28 PM   
popeye1250


Posts: 18104
Joined: 1/27/2006
From: New Hampshire
Status: offline 		One good thing about a collapse, ...leftists don't like guns.

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Profile   Post #: 60
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