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Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/10/2014 9:01:50 PM   
cloudboy


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The NYT laid out the players in the Middle East who might align to fight ISIS.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/10/world/middleeast/longtime-rivals-look-to-team-up-to-confront-isis.html?mabReward=RI%3A7&action=click&pgtype=Homepage®ion=CColumn&module=Recommendation&src=rechp&WT.nav=RecEngine

What would you do? How do you think this ends?
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RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/11/2014 7:18:20 AM   
cloudboy


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No country supports ISIS, but its funding comes from Saudi Arabia and other sources.

Players:

IRAQ, SYRIA, IRAN, RUSSIA, TURKEY, THE KURDS, Sunnis, Extremist Sunnis, Shiites, Shiite Militias, Saudi Arabia, Kurdish pesh-merga, the Kurdish Workers party (PKK), the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Qatar.

That is 17 different entities. There is very little cohesion between these groups, plenty of rivalries, and long standing hatreds. No wonder BUSH I left IRAQ intact. One has to be very careful shaking this tree.

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RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/11/2014 7:25:47 AM   
mnottertail


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Status: offline 		Turkey (as they did in Iraq) will want lots of money from us, and to keep their part of the Kurds intact. We got trouble brewing there, because the Kurds look like they could get this job done. But there are three countries that absorbed 'Kurdistan', and the Kurds want independence, and that will be a miasma. Iran will want big influence in Iraq (thats what the Iran-Iraq war was, Saddam keeping the crazies out). Egypt officially is a toilet, and won't bring anything of value to the table.


I don't know the inside of this, so I don't know what deals will or can be made with who. That's the final truth of it.

Russia is gonna want Syria left alone and Assad hanging out or someone very like him.

I expect China will fund this, whatever it is.


< Message edited by mnottertail -- 9/11/2014 7:26:22 AM >

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RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/11/2014 7:55:31 AM   
cloudboy


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Status: offline 		If the SUNNIs don't get some kind of bone, they will continue to make trouble. What stops ISIS from simply disappearing on the battlefield and dispersing like the Taliban -- only to return later and make trouble? One thing we've seen in spades is that Guerrilla warfare and insurgent tactics work wonders at keeping the cause alive.

Do you think a partition into three countries might work? These groups don't play well together in the sandbox.

< Message edited by cloudboy -- 9/11/2014 7:59:18 AM >

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RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/11/2014 8:21:21 AM   
mnottertail


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Status: offline 		Well, if they cut it in three, then you got 10 years of internal civil war, but regardless of which of these sects we kill, (ISIS is made from the guys pouring into Iraq over Ws folly) they will remake and resurface again in another guise.

I really don't see good moves here, it is a choice between all bad outcomes.

_____________________________

Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30


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RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/11/2014 7:51:09 PM   
DesideriScuri


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quote:

ORIGINAL: cloudboy
The NYT laid out the players in the Middle East who might align to fight ISIS.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/10/world/middleeast/longtime-rivals-look-to-team-up-to-confront-isis.html?mabReward=RI%3A7&action=click&pgtype=Homepage®ion=CColumn&module=Recommendation&src=rechp&WT.nav=RecEngine
What would you do? How do you think this ends?


The same fucking thing that's happened before. We act. We get rid of a terrorist group (or severely limit it), and something new pops up in it's place that we will be called on to take care of.

How many times do we have to act in the Middle East and get bitten on our asses before we stop?


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RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/11/2014 9:33:44 PM   
Aylee


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri

quote:

ORIGINAL: cloudboy
The NYT laid out the players in the Middle East who might align to fight ISIS.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/10/world/middleeast/longtime-rivals-look-to-team-up-to-confront-isis.html?mabReward=RI%3A7&action=click&pgtype=Homepage®ion=CColumn&module=Recommendation&src=rechp&WT.nav=RecEngine
What would you do? How do you think this ends?


The same fucking thing that's happened before. We act. We get rid of a terrorist group (or severely limit it), and something new pops up in it's place that we will be called on to take care of.

How many times do we have to act in the Middle East and get bitten on our asses before we stop?



Scorched Earth.


_____________________________

Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam

I don’t always wgah’nagl fhtagn. But when I do, I ph’nglui mglw’nafh R’lyeh.

(in reply to DesideriScuri)
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RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/11/2014 10:58:16 PM   
Edwynn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri

quote:

ORIGINAL: cloudboy
The NYT laid out the players in the Middle East who might align to fight ISIS.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/10/world/middleeast/longtime-rivals-look-to-team-up-to-confront-isis.html?mabReward=RI%3A7&action=click&pgtype=Homepage®ion=CColumn&module=Recommendation&src=rechp&WT.nav=RecEngine
What would you do? How do you think this ends?


The same fucking thing that's happened before. We act. We get rid of a terrorist group (or severely limit it), and something new pops up in it's place that we will be called on to take care of.

How many times do we have to act in the Middle East and get bitten on our asses before we stop?




To make your post more historically accurate:

"The same fucking thing that's happened before: we act, we do as US or UK corporations tell us to do, which in almost every instance creates new terrorists. Then the armaments industry gets an additional boost beyond that of the other industries that held the government's feet to the fire if not doing the job properly by their estimation."

Unless we are expected to consider the recent past US support of any and every dictatorship , and every necessary overthrow of democratically elected governments in the process, in Central and South America, and likewise the support of Wahabist (the fount of modern ME terrorism) Saudi Arabia, as to "get rid of (or severely limit) a terrorist group."

"Middle East Invasion II" (which is only counting recent history, though it's more likely "ME invasion 23.4, version 67, updated RPG service pack" to use modern nomenclature) begat more terrorists than anything else in recent history, and that's a fact..

I could be in the minority (and likely I am), but I'm not sure how the US' activity in overthrowing Árbenz in Guatemala or the very active ousting of Mosaddegh in Iran could be construed as "We get rid of a terrorist group," when we have so effectively financed and provided the logistics for any "terrorist group" as the occasion required, especially the paramilitary assassin groups in South America.

When empires are improperly functioning, i.e. when they are held to the service of conglomerate interests, then the "terrorism" that these interests have engendered in consequence of their actions is what intelligent people recognize as "the chickens coming home to roost."


Both the foreign follies and the domestic financial terrorism recently unleashed upon us are a direct result of succumbing to the fairy tale of "less government," just so you know.




< Message edited by Edwynn -- 9/11/2014 11:40:17 PM >

(in reply to DesideriScuri)
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RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/12/2014 12:59:41 AM   
tweakabelle


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From: Sydney Australia
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri


The same fucking thing that's happened before. We act. We get rid of a terrorist group (or severely limit it), and something new pops up in it's place that we will be called on to take care of.

How many times do we have to act in the Middle East and get bitten on our asses before we stop?


Yes it has happened before and looks like happening again.

It will keep recurring until the issues that give rise to terrorism are addressed. The first steps towards doing that is accepting that:
1. A purely military strategy is guaranteed to fail; and
2. There are genuine grievances that underlie terrorist responses. These issues are social and political. They must be addressed as part of an overall counter-terrorist strategy. Any strategy that fails in this regard is guaranteed to fail sooner or later.

< Message edited by tweakabelle -- 9/12/2014 1:01:53 AM >

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RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/12/2014 1:52:56 AM   
Politesub53


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Aylee


quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri

quote:

ORIGINAL: cloudboy
The NYT laid out the players in the Middle East who might align to fight ISIS.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/10/world/middleeast/longtime-rivals-look-to-team-up-to-confront-isis.html?mabReward=RI%3A7&action=click&pgtype=Homepage®ion=CColumn&module=Recommendation&src=rechp&WT.nav=RecEngine
What would you do? How do you think this ends?


The same fucking thing that's happened before. We act. We get rid of a terrorist group (or severely limit it), and something new pops up in it's place that we will be called on to take care of.

How many times do we have to act in the Middle East and get bitten on our asses before we stop?



Scorched Earth.



More hate.

(in reply to Aylee)
Profile   Post #: 10
RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/12/2014 1:58:44 AM   
Edwynn


Posts: 4105
Joined: 10/26/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle

quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri


The same fucking thing that's happened before. We act. We get rid of a terrorist group (or severely limit it), and something new pops up in it's place that we will be called on to take care of.

How many times do we have to act in the Middle East and get bitten on our asses before we stop?


Yes it has happened before and looks like happening again.

It will keep recurring until the issues that give rise to terrorism are addressed. The first steps towards doing that is accepting that:
1. A purely military strategy is guaranteed to fail; and
2. There are genuine grievances that underlie terrorist responses. These issues are social and political. They must be addressed as part of an overall counter-terrorist strategy. Any strategy that fails in this regard is guaranteed to fail sooner or later.


I would say, respectfully, that I think you might be missing the point on one issue.

"A purely military strategy is guaranteed to fail" is one conception. But on another plane, the economically advantageous stratagem of warfare worked out quite well for the interests well represented by Cheney and Wolfowitz and Rumsfeldt.

The initial intent is what matters. The strategy to accomplish it as intended was far from a failure in that regard.

(in reply to tweakabelle)
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RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/12/2014 5:27:33 AM   
Sanity


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From: Nampa, Idaho USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

More hate.


Its called war, and the other side has been at war since the seventh century or so.

Do you want to go in and do hand-to-hand combat against ISIS? Or perhaps you think a strongly worded letter will do. Maybe a twitter campaign ? Or a boycott...


< Message edited by Sanity -- 9/12/2014 5:29:29 AM >

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Inside Every Liberal Is A Totalitarian Screaming To Get Out

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RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/12/2014 5:35:11 AM   
Sanity


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From: Nampa, Idaho USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: cloudboy


The NYT laid out the players in the Middle East who might align to fight ISIS.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/10/world/middleeast/longtime-rivals-look-to-team-up-to-confront-isis.html?mabReward=RI%3A7&action=click&pgtype=Homepage®ion=CColumn&module=Recommendation&src=rechp&WT.nav=RecEngine

What would you do? How do you think this ends?


So complicated that George Bush saw todays situation very clearly back in 2007

_____________________________

Inside Every Liberal Is A Totalitarian Screaming To Get Out

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RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/12/2014 5:40:54 AM   
crazyml


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity

quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

More hate.


Its called war, and the other side has been at war since the seventh century or so.

Do you want to go in and do hand-to-hand combat against ISIS? Or perhaps you think a strongly worded letter will do. Maybe a twitter campaign ? Or a boycott...



You're making it all seem a little binary. I think it's because you're not actually thinking the issue through.

Military action against ISIS may bring short term relief, but goodness me, you must have figured out now that the best way to bring people to enlightened democracy isn't by killing them.

Your snarky comment about strongly worded letters, and twitter campaigns is a fascinating reflection of how little you understand what is going on - Since social media will be a far more potent weapon, and a far more crucial battleground than the various patches of sand that are about to get the "Freedom and democracy is the future" message from a UAV controlled by a spotty nerd in Texas (or wherever they're flown from).




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RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/12/2014 5:50:44 AM   
Sanity


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From: Nampa, Idaho USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: crazyml

You're making it all seem a little binary. I think it's because you're not actually thinking the issue through.

Military action against ISIS may bring short term relief, but goodness me, you must have figured out now that the best way to bring people to enlightened democracy isn't by killing them.

Your snarky comment about strongly worded letters, and twitter campaigns is a fascinating reflection of how little you understand what is going on - Since social media will be a far more potent weapon, and a far more crucial battleground than the various patches of sand that are about to get the "Freedom and democracy is the future" message from a UAV controlled by a spotty nerd in Texas (or wherever they're flown from).





He BELIEVES in the strongly worded letter...

_____________________________

Inside Every Liberal Is A Totalitarian Screaming To Get Out

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RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/12/2014 6:08:27 AM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity


quote:

ORIGINAL: cloudboy


The NYT laid out the players in the Middle East who might align to fight ISIS.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/10/world/middleeast/longtime-rivals-look-to-team-up-to-confront-isis.html?mabReward=RI%3A7&action=click&pgtype=Homepage®ion=CColumn&module=Recommendation&src=rechp&WT.nav=RecEngine

What would you do? How do you think this ends?


So complicated that George Bush saw todays situation very clearly back in 2007



Yup, solid nutsucker felching there bucko. So the guy who lied to our nation invaded the wrong country under false pretenses, fucked the entire middle east for decades and decades is now a prophet? How come he didnt do something about it then? Cuz he signed the treaty that cleared us out of there and was bragging about it, and got some shoes for his efforts.



_____________________________

Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30


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RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/12/2014 7:08:02 AM   
Musicmystery


Posts: 30259
Joined: 3/14/2005
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity


quote:

ORIGINAL: cloudboy


The NYT laid out the players in the Middle East who might align to fight ISIS.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/10/world/middleeast/longtime-rivals-look-to-team-up-to-confront-isis.html?mabReward=RI%3A7&action=click&pgtype=Homepage®ion=CColumn&module=Recommendation&src=rechp&WT.nav=RecEngine

What would you do? How do you think this ends?


So complicated that George Bush saw todays situation very clearly back in 2007

Too bad he didn't see that situation BEFORE he caused it.

(in reply to Sanity)
Profile   Post #: 17
RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/12/2014 7:09:19 AM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline 		many of us did way before he invaded.

_____________________________

Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30


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RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/12/2014 7:11:19 AM   
Musicmystery


Posts: 30259
Joined: 3/14/2005
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity

quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

More hate.


Its called war, and the other side has been at war since the seventh century or so.

Do you want to go in and do hand-to-hand combat against ISIS? Or perhaps you think a strongly worded letter will do. Maybe a twitter campaign ? Or a boycott...


It's called long term consequences. Your knee-jerk response is how we got into this mess.

Sure, we could scorch the earth. But we wouldn't then be able to walk away, problem solved.

Strategic actions, not smashing things, will serve us much better. Too bad Pres. Cowboy and Rummy didn't try that.

(in reply to Sanity)
Profile   Post #: 19
RE: Foreign Policy -- The Complicated Road Ahead - 9/12/2014 7:12:24 AM   
Musicmystery


Posts: 30259
Joined: 3/14/2005
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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

many of us did way before he invaded.

Including his daddy a decade and a half before that invasion.

(in reply to mnottertail)
Profile   Post #: 20
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