Phydeaux
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Joined: 1/4/2004 Status: offline
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ORIGINAL: bounty44 quote:
ORIGINAL: Phydeaux Trump, in fact cannot win the nomination with 35% of the vote. Bone up on the rules. The way the rules are structured, 8 required victories, minimum popular percentage, and thresholds for delegates guarantees that candidates will be winnowed, which in turn will lead to the candidate eventually being the last man standing and getting a preponderance of the votes. I wont for a moment suggest im conversant with the complex intricacies of the primary process, but there is this: quote:
The Republican primary contest has long had what Sam Wang, a Princeton University professor and neuroscientist, refers to as a “deadline problem.” Wang, who runs the Princeton Election Consortium, posited on Feb. 11 that the Republican field needed to get smaller in a hurry, setting two specific deadlines to try to defeat Trump. The first deadline is Feb. 29, at which point Wang thinks there need to be only two alternatives to Trump prior to March 1 voting. The second is March 14, when Wang thinks there can be only one other option besides Trump. The issue is that many of the states leading up to March 8 fit the model of Trump’s South Carolina victory, in which he captured about a third of the vote but still managed to get all the delegates due to proportionality rules... This means that unless everyone but Rubio and Cruz quits in the next week, Trump can’t be caught. Josh Putnam, a political science professor at the University of Georgia who runs Frontloading HQ, told The Daily Beast that the only scenario that would allow a Trump defeat in the primary is a one-on-one matchup... Even in a situation in which Trump, Rubio, and Cruz are the last three standing, as conventional wisdom would suggest, the road still looks rocky for Cruz and Rubio... “Under Republican rules, it is possible to win a majority of delegates with as little as 30 percent of the vote, if conditions are right,” Wang said, using South Carolina, where Trump took all 50 delegates with only 33 percent of the vote, as an example. “That involves a split field, which is why I have been so focused on that. At Trump’s current level of support, about 35-40 percent, his delegate ceiling is above 50 percent,” meaning, according to Wang’s model, that even if Trump garners 35 percent of the popular support, he can still earn at least half of all the national delegates available. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/24/a-trump-win-is-looking-inevitable.html there is also this: "Donald Trump Doesn’t Need High Vote Percentages to Pile Up Delegates" quote:
The possibility that South Carolina could award all or nearly all of its delegates to a single candidate is an extreme example of how the G.O.P. delegate rules work, but it makes it easy to imagine how a candidate like Donald Trump could win a majority of delegates without anything near a majority of the popular vote. He could win with less than 40 percent of the vote in a true three-way race. He could win with even less the longer the field is split... Mr. Trump could win a majority of delegates with a modest plurality of the vote in many more states than those that explicitly award delegates on a winner-take-all basis — even in those states considered “proportional” by the Republican National Committee. Many analysts call these “winner-take-most” states... When taken together, the lax proportionality rules and the winner-take-all or winner-take-most states make it very easy to imagine how Mr. Trump could win a majority of delegates with far less than 50 percent of the vote. How low? In a true three-way race with Marco Rubio as the second-strongest candidate, Mr. Trump might need to win only about 39 percent of the popular vote to take an outright majority of the delegates to the Republican National Convention... The same model suggested that Mr. Trump could win a majority of delegates with an even lower vote total — 36 percent — against Mr. Cruz, who appears to be less competitive in winner-take-all states than Mr. Rubio. Mr. Trump’s magic percentage number shrinks even lower if the race stays as divided on Super Tuesday as it is now. In simulations that resemble the race we have now, Mr. Trump won an outright majority of delegates with as little as 31 percent of the vote, although it seems highly unlikely that the race will remain this split. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/20/upshot/how-trump-could-pile-up-delegates-with-modest-percentages-of-the-vote.html lastly: "Trump may win GOP nomination, without a majority of voters" quote:
The Cook Political Report, handicappers par excellence, observed over the weekend that Trump's 35 percent "ceiling" of support could be enough to win a five-person race (including John Kasich and Ben Carson) and even enough to "squeak out a victory" in a three-way race. Cook's Dave Wasserman explained that 38 percent of the 2,472 Republican convention delegates are from winner-take-all contests, which means Trump can get them with a slim plurality of the vote. And in a number of the other states that award delegates proportionately, Cruz and Rubio are in danger of slipping below the 20 percent threshold required to get a share. This increases the odds that nobody will get the 1,237 needed, or that somebody will without winning a majority of votes. http://www.fortmorgantimes.com/opinion-columnists/ci_29553482/trump-may-win-gop-nomination-without-majority-voters Good links - but they ignore a number of issues. In order to get a nomination - a candidate must outright win 8 states. Were I Rubio/Cruz, I'd be hitting mariannas and the islands - cheap victory. But does anyone really see Cruz / Rubio winning 8? If the candidate doesn't win 8 states - they can not, by the rules, be the nominee. At which point, if there are 6 contests left, and cruz and rubio have won 1 each.. They cannot be the nominee - so why continue to spend money? The requirement to win 8 states - plus a majority of the delegates means 35% isn't enough. Should rubio/cruz continue in the race - they will lose voters as inevitability sets in. There will be hge pressure to settle on a candidate. But even if that were not the case - going into a divided conference - what party is going to thumb its nose at trump at 35% if his competitors are polling around 20%. The only real hope for a divided conference is cruz to drop out before March 14. NY / California. Trump puts NY into play, Moderate / liberal states: vermont, california, massachussets, new jersey, oregon, washington - what hope does rubio / cruz have? Trump is pulling 20% from democrats - cruz gets 3 % of moderates.
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