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US elections general thread


Jeb Bush
  2% (1)
Donald Trump
  31% (12)
Marco Rubio
  0% (0)
Ben Carson
  2% (1)
Ted Cruz
  10% (4)
John Kasich
  5% (2)
Bernie Sanders
  34% (13)
Hillary Clinton
  13% (5)


Total Votes : 38


(last vote on : 3/21/2016 6:14:52 AM)
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RE: US elections general thread - 2/23/2016 8:51:08 PM   
Wayward5oul


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As the years go by, I am more and more in favor of this system. I know that several of you are probably already familiar with it, but I thought I would put it out there as its implementation could alleviate a lot of the concerns that Republicans have, regarding fears that The Donald is fracturing the Party.
http://www.fairvote.org/rcv#rcvbenefits

It is used in many areas of the nation already, and in several countries around the world, at the national level.

It eliminates the 'wasted' vote.

It solves the issue of independent candidates splitting the vote, so people who always say "I like the independent dude, but no way is he going to get enough votes to actually win, so I am going to go ahead and vote for the R or the D that is my second choice, so that my vote won't go wasted". They could rank the Ind candidate as 1st, and the R or D as 2nd.. That gives 3rd party candidates a more realistic shot in the election, Yet insures that if he does not get the required votes to remain on a run-off list, then all the people who voted for him will be able to transfer their vote to the R or D they listed in as their 2nd choice.

It makes sure that the winner is a person that the majority of people voted for, rather than against.

For example, Candidate A, Candidate B, and Candidate C-run for office in an election where ultimately 100 people vote

Camdidate A receives 40 votes.
Candidate B receives 35 votes.
Candiadate C receives 25 votes.

Under our current system, Candidate A would be declared the winner, despite the fact that he only received 40% of the vote. 60% of the voters voted against him.

The alternative system-those same 100 votes cast as a run-off format, ranking the candidates in order of choice.
A is picked as 1st choice on 40 ballots.
B is picked as first choice on 35 ballots.

The ballots for candidate C are "dropped", because he got the fewest 1st place votes. Those 25 ballots are recounted, and awarded to the candidate who was indicated as the 2nd choice of that voter.

5 of the dropped ballots listed Candidate A as the second choice, so his votes rise from 40 to 45.
The remaining 20 dropped ballots listed candidate B as their second choice, bringing his total to 55.

Candidate B wins, because the majority of the voters (55%) chose him as their 1st or 2nd choice.
Candidate A loses, because though he has the largest number of 1st place votes, it was not equal to the majority of the total vote. The majority of total voters actually listed him as their last place candidate. he had the least number of votes in the top two.

That gives you a majority favored candidate, not just the one with the most single votes that may or may not add up as a majority of total voters.


(in reply to bounty44)
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RE: US elections general thread - 2/23/2016 9:38:49 PM   
Greta75


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Trump takes Nevada.

I think the more fun game now would be, guess which state is going to reject Trump besides Iowa?

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RE: US elections general thread - 2/24/2016 4:45:52 AM   
bounty44


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I would be all for a system like that.

here's some more information about it:

http://fairvotemn.org/book/export/html/1411

quote:

Ranked Choice Voting:
•Upholds the principle of majority rule
•Eliminates "wasted" votes
•Solves the "spoiler" problem and gives voters more choice
•Increases voter participation
•Opens the political process to new voices
•Promotes more diverse representation
•Reduces negative campaigning and promotes civil, issue oriented campaigns
•Mitigates political polarization
•Combines two elections in one so that voters only have to make one trip to the polls and taxpayers have to pay for only one election
•Reduces the cost of campaigning


http://accuratedemocracy.com/c_ballot.htm

quote:

Old-fashioned ballots oversimplify most questions. They let you mark only one option “yes”, leaving all others “no”. Such ballots leave voters with very little choice.

This kind of ballot misses many gradations and subtleties in opinions or priorities. It promotes false dichotomies, limited choices that polarize voters and increase conflict.

Preference ballots minimize those negative traits and results. They let you rank your first choice, second choice, third, and so on. Voters rank as many as they care to — but more complete ballots may be more effective.


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RE: US elections general thread - 2/24/2016 6:46:03 AM   
mnottertail


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I think a great many (and maybe a majority of citizens) would support such a system.

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RE: US elections general thread - 2/24/2016 7:20:24 AM   
hot4bondage


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That sounds a lot better than the current system. It might help weed out candidates with a strong base but not much support elsewhere (Trump, Clinton), and it might encourage more people to run for office.

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RE: US elections general thread - 2/24/2016 10:25:15 AM   
kdsub


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quote:

more people to run for office


The last thing i would want.

The system is just fine as it is... it has worked for a long time.

Butch

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I don't see any use in having a uniform and arbitrary way of spelling words. We might as well make all clothes alike and cook all dishes alike. Sameness is tiresome; variety is pleasing

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RE: US elections general thread - 2/24/2016 1:36:43 PM   
bounty44


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"worked" is arguable.

I think whats going on in the republican primary might be a good example. these are hypothetical numbers for arguments sake, but trump could win the nomination with 35% of the vote, the rest being split between the other candidates, whose voters might have trump as a last choice.

id rather see someone nominated with 25% of the first place votes and 60% of the second place votes, than someone with 35% of the first place votes and no second or third place votes. the former is a stronger candidate.

I like the way Olympic host cities are selected, through a round robin process with the low vote getters dropped out each round. sometimes the clear winner does not emerge until the last vote.

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Profile   Post #: 127
RE: US elections general thread - 2/24/2016 4:27:47 PM   
Phydeaux


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Trump, in fact cannot win the nomination with 35% of the vote.

Bone up on the rules. The way the rules are structured, 8 required victories, minimum popular percentage, and thresholds for delegates guarantees that candidates will be winnowed, which in turn will lead to the candidate eventually being the last man standing and getting a preponderance of the votes.

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RE: US elections general thread - 2/24/2016 5:26:35 PM   
kdsub


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quote:

"worked" is arguable


There is no arguing with history...It works very well.

Butch

_____________________________

Mark Twain:

I don't see any use in having a uniform and arbitrary way of spelling words. We might as well make all clothes alike and cook all dishes alike. Sameness is tiresome; variety is pleasing

(in reply to bounty44)
Profile   Post #: 129
RE: US elections general thread - 2/24/2016 7:28:53 PM   
bounty44


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

Trump, in fact cannot win the nomination with 35% of the vote.

Bone up on the rules. The way the rules are structured, 8 required victories, minimum popular percentage, and thresholds for delegates guarantees that candidates will be winnowed, which in turn will lead to the candidate eventually being the last man standing and getting a preponderance of the votes.


I wont for a moment suggest im conversant with the complex intricacies of the primary process, but there is this:

quote:

The Republican primary contest has long had what Sam Wang, a Princeton University professor and neuroscientist, refers to as a “deadline problem.” Wang, who runs the Princeton Election Consortium, posited on Feb. 11 that the Republican field needed to get smaller in a hurry, setting two specific deadlines to try to defeat Trump.

The first deadline is Feb. 29, at which point Wang thinks there need to be only two alternatives to Trump prior to March 1 voting. The second is March 14, when Wang thinks there can be only one other option besides Trump.

The issue is that many of the states leading up to March 8 fit the model of Trump’s South Carolina victory, in which he captured about a third of the vote but still managed to get all the delegates due to proportionality rules...

This means that unless everyone but Rubio and Cruz quits in the next week, Trump can’t be caught.

Josh Putnam, a political science professor at the University of Georgia who runs Frontloading HQ, told The Daily Beast that the only scenario that would allow a Trump defeat in the primary is a one-on-one matchup...

Even in a situation in which Trump, Rubio, and Cruz are the last three standing, as conventional wisdom would suggest, the road still looks rocky for Cruz and Rubio...

“Under Republican rules, it is possible to win a majority of delegates with as little as 30 percent of the vote, if conditions are right,” Wang said, using South Carolina, where Trump took all 50 delegates with only 33 percent of the vote, as an example. “That involves a split field, which is why I have been so focused on that. At Trump’s current level of support, about 35-40 percent, his delegate ceiling is above 50 percent,” meaning, according to Wang’s model, that even if Trump garners 35 percent of the popular support, he can still earn at least half of all the national delegates available.


http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/24/a-trump-win-is-looking-inevitable.html

there is also this:

"Donald Trump Doesn’t Need High Vote Percentages to Pile Up Delegates"

quote:

The possibility that South Carolina could award all or nearly all of its delegates to a single candidate is an extreme example of how the G.O.P. delegate rules work, but it makes it easy to imagine how a candidate like Donald Trump could win a majority of delegates without anything near a majority of the popular vote.

He could win with less than 40 percent of the vote in a true three-way race. He could win with even less the longer the field is split...

Mr. Trump could win a majority of delegates with a modest plurality of the vote in many more states than those that explicitly award delegates on a winner-take-all basis — even in those states considered “proportional” by the Republican National Committee. Many analysts call these “winner-take-most” states...

When taken together, the lax proportionality rules and the winner-take-all or winner-take-most states make it very easy to imagine how Mr. Trump could win a majority of delegates with far less than 50 percent of the vote.

How low? In a true three-way race with Marco Rubio as the second-strongest candidate, Mr. Trump might need to win only about 39 percent of the popular vote to take an outright majority of the delegates to the Republican National Convention...

The same model suggested that Mr. Trump could win a majority of delegates with an even lower vote total — 36 percent — against Mr. Cruz, who appears to be less competitive in winner-take-all states than Mr. Rubio.

Mr. Trump’s magic percentage number shrinks even lower if the race stays as divided on Super Tuesday as it is now. In simulations that resemble the race we have now, Mr. Trump won an outright majority of delegates with as little as 31 percent of the vote, although it seems highly unlikely that the race will remain this split.



http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/20/upshot/how-trump-could-pile-up-delegates-with-modest-percentages-of-the-vote.html

lastly:

"Trump may win GOP nomination, without a majority of voters"

quote:

The Cook Political Report, handicappers par excellence, observed over the weekend that Trump's 35 percent "ceiling" of support could be enough to win a five-person race (including John Kasich and Ben Carson) and even enough to "squeak out a victory" in a three-way race.

Cook's Dave Wasserman explained that 38 percent of the 2,472 Republican convention delegates are from winner-take-all contests, which means Trump can get them with a slim plurality of the vote. And in a number of the other states that award delegates proportionately, Cruz and Rubio are in danger of slipping below the 20 percent threshold required to get a share. This increases the odds that nobody will get the 1,237 needed, or that somebody will without winning a majority of votes.


http://www.fortmorgantimes.com/opinion-columnists/ci_29553482/trump-may-win-gop-nomination-without-majority-voters

< Message edited by bounty44 -- 2/24/2016 8:02:51 PM >

(in reply to Phydeaux)
Profile   Post #: 130
RE: US elections general thread - 2/24/2016 7:35:51 PM   
ThatDizzyChick


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I like that system

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Not your average bimbo.

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Profile   Post #: 131
RE: US elections general thread - 2/24/2016 8:30:41 PM   
ifmaz


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Joined: 7/22/2015
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BamaD
Since Hillary or Sanders would be the option yes.
It isn't that I would vote Rep no matter what, it is that Hillary and Sanders are much worse than trump.
Who would I vote for, Truman?


You realize there are more than two parties, right?

(in reply to BamaD)
Profile   Post #: 132
RE: US elections general thread - 2/24/2016 9:46:10 PM   
Phydeaux


Posts: 4828
Joined: 1/4/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: bounty44

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

Trump, in fact cannot win the nomination with 35% of the vote.

Bone up on the rules. The way the rules are structured, 8 required victories, minimum popular percentage, and thresholds for delegates guarantees that candidates will be winnowed, which in turn will lead to the candidate eventually being the last man standing and getting a preponderance of the votes.


I wont for a moment suggest im conversant with the complex intricacies of the primary process, but there is this:

quote:

The Republican primary contest has long had what Sam Wang, a Princeton University professor and neuroscientist, refers to as a “deadline problem.” Wang, who runs the Princeton Election Consortium, posited on Feb. 11 that the Republican field needed to get smaller in a hurry, setting two specific deadlines to try to defeat Trump.

The first deadline is Feb. 29, at which point Wang thinks there need to be only two alternatives to Trump prior to March 1 voting. The second is March 14, when Wang thinks there can be only one other option besides Trump.

The issue is that many of the states leading up to March 8 fit the model of Trump’s South Carolina victory, in which he captured about a third of the vote but still managed to get all the delegates due to proportionality rules...

This means that unless everyone but Rubio and Cruz quits in the next week, Trump can’t be caught.

Josh Putnam, a political science professor at the University of Georgia who runs Frontloading HQ, told The Daily Beast that the only scenario that would allow a Trump defeat in the primary is a one-on-one matchup...

Even in a situation in which Trump, Rubio, and Cruz are the last three standing, as conventional wisdom would suggest, the road still looks rocky for Cruz and Rubio...

“Under Republican rules, it is possible to win a majority of delegates with as little as 30 percent of the vote, if conditions are right,” Wang said, using South Carolina, where Trump took all 50 delegates with only 33 percent of the vote, as an example. “That involves a split field, which is why I have been so focused on that. At Trump’s current level of support, about 35-40 percent, his delegate ceiling is above 50 percent,” meaning, according to Wang’s model, that even if Trump garners 35 percent of the popular support, he can still earn at least half of all the national delegates available.


http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/24/a-trump-win-is-looking-inevitable.html

there is also this:

"Donald Trump Doesn’t Need High Vote Percentages to Pile Up Delegates"

quote:

The possibility that South Carolina could award all or nearly all of its delegates to a single candidate is an extreme example of how the G.O.P. delegate rules work, but it makes it easy to imagine how a candidate like Donald Trump could win a majority of delegates without anything near a majority of the popular vote.

He could win with less than 40 percent of the vote in a true three-way race. He could win with even less the longer the field is split...

Mr. Trump could win a majority of delegates with a modest plurality of the vote in many more states than those that explicitly award delegates on a winner-take-all basis — even in those states considered “proportional” by the Republican National Committee. Many analysts call these “winner-take-most” states...

When taken together, the lax proportionality rules and the winner-take-all or winner-take-most states make it very easy to imagine how Mr. Trump could win a majority of delegates with far less than 50 percent of the vote.

How low? In a true three-way race with Marco Rubio as the second-strongest candidate, Mr. Trump might need to win only about 39 percent of the popular vote to take an outright majority of the delegates to the Republican National Convention...

The same model suggested that Mr. Trump could win a majority of delegates with an even lower vote total — 36 percent — against Mr. Cruz, who appears to be less competitive in winner-take-all states than Mr. Rubio.

Mr. Trump’s magic percentage number shrinks even lower if the race stays as divided on Super Tuesday as it is now. In simulations that resemble the race we have now, Mr. Trump won an outright majority of delegates with as little as 31 percent of the vote, although it seems highly unlikely that the race will remain this split.



http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/20/upshot/how-trump-could-pile-up-delegates-with-modest-percentages-of-the-vote.html

lastly:

"Trump may win GOP nomination, without a majority of voters"

quote:

The Cook Political Report, handicappers par excellence, observed over the weekend that Trump's 35 percent "ceiling" of support could be enough to win a five-person race (including John Kasich and Ben Carson) and even enough to "squeak out a victory" in a three-way race.

Cook's Dave Wasserman explained that 38 percent of the 2,472 Republican convention delegates are from winner-take-all contests, which means Trump can get them with a slim plurality of the vote. And in a number of the other states that award delegates proportionately, Cruz and Rubio are in danger of slipping below the 20 percent threshold required to get a share. This increases the odds that nobody will get the 1,237 needed, or that somebody will without winning a majority of votes.


http://www.fortmorgantimes.com/opinion-columnists/ci_29553482/trump-may-win-gop-nomination-without-majority-voters


Good links - but they ignore a number of issues.

In order to get a nomination - a candidate must outright win 8 states. Were I Rubio/Cruz, I'd be hitting mariannas and the islands - cheap victory.
But does anyone really see Cruz / Rubio winning 8?

If the candidate doesn't win 8 states - they can not, by the rules, be the nominee. At which point, if there are 6 contests left, and cruz and rubio have won 1 each.. They cannot be the nominee - so why continue to spend money? The requirement to win 8 states - plus a majority of the delegates means 35% isn't enough.

Should rubio/cruz continue in the race - they will lose voters as inevitability sets in. There will be hge pressure to settle on a candidate. But even if that were not the case - going into a divided conference - what party is going to thumb its nose at trump at 35% if his competitors are polling around 20%. The only real hope for a divided conference is cruz to drop out before March 14.

NY / California. Trump puts NY into play, Moderate / liberal states: vermont, california, massachussets, new jersey, oregon, washington - what hope does rubio / cruz have? Trump is pulling 20% from democrats - cruz gets 3 % of moderates.

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RE: US elections general thread - 2/25/2016 7:41:14 AM   
Greta75


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There is even this theory that Liberals are voting for Trump in Republican Primary, because they truly believe Trump will give Hillary her Victory!

Oh man! I hope this is true! I can't wait for Trump Versus Clinton or Trump Versus Sanders!

At this point, I don't care who wins Democrat side.

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Profile   Post #: 134
RE: US elections general thread - 2/25/2016 1:07:30 PM   
PeonForHer


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ThatDizzyChick
I like that system


It's an excellent system. It's designed around the idea that a government should be made up of views that *represent* the people of a nation, rather than the views of the 'winners in a race'. A non-PR electoral system is a mark of an 'immature democracy'*, like that of the USA or the UK. It's generally considered better that a government be made up of representatives of the views in a country, rather than 'winners-take-all', because that way you're less likely to have a country ruled over by a government that is disliked by most of the populace and there's thus less likelihood of four or five years (USA or UK respectively) of discord across society as a result. E.g: In the UK we have a government whose views aren't supported by around 70% of the electorate.

The first, and most fundamental problem, to get past, though, is that people who are brought up to believe that they 'live in a democracy' don't think any further than that. The view is, 'Hey, a democracy is a democracy - who cares about tinkering with it?'

In the most mature kind of democracy, you have all views in society represented in government. The majority view will prevail, but it usually won't entirely get its own way. It'll need to make concessions to minority views. In the least mature democracy, people will still act as though society is divided between 'winners' and 'losers' in a 'war'. The winners of the war expect and assume that the losers not only don't have any representation in government, but should be entirely wiped away. Thus, for instance, the situation in Egypt, wherein large numbers of the Muslim Brotherhood are rounded up and imprisoned, etc. All that kind of ('nascent') democratic system does is stop the losers from being killed.

The short version of the above: there are degrees and degrees of democracy. It really, really isn't a case of just 'democracy' on one side, and 'autocracy' on the other. So universally loved is the word 'democracy' that even the most autocratic nations of the world have called their systems 'democratic'. The word always, *always* needs interrogating.

(*I put that term in quote marks because that's just the technical term used in political science. Sorry - I know it can look insulting.)

< Message edited by PeonForHer -- 2/25/2016 1:17:51 PM >


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RE: US elections general thread - 2/25/2016 2:52:48 PM   
Musicmystery


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

Trump, in fact cannot win the nomination with 35% of the vote.

Bone up on the rules. The way the rules are structured, 8 required victories, minimum popular percentage, and thresholds for delegates guarantees that candidates will be winnowed, which in turn will lead to the candidate eventually being the last man standing and getting a preponderance of the votes.

"Some primaries and caucuses divide their delegates proportionately - like Iowa. In fact, GOP rules require proportional allocation of delegates for primaries and caucuses held before March 14, 2016. After that, states are free to have winner-take-all primaries and caucuses -- where all of the delegates go to the top voter getter.

"That means that if Trump is still able to command 25% to 30% of the vote after March 14 - and if many candidates remain in the field -- he could likely win all of the delegates in many states.

"For instance, Florida now has a winner-take-all primary. So if Bush and Rubio split the "establishment" vote there, Trump could easily win all of its 99 delegates.

"In fact, to stop Trump, the GOP establishment will have to figure out how to anoint one challenger and then get many of the others to resign from the race."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/why-trump-could-win-the-g_b_8042332.html

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Profile   Post #: 136
RE: US elections general thread - 2/25/2016 6:47:00 PM   
Phydeaux


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While states are free to have winner take all primaries, most do not. Most use a proportional representation with either a 13%, 18% or 20% cutoff threshold.
A total of 8 states are winner take all.

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RE: US elections general thread - 2/25/2016 6:52:37 PM   
BamaD


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ifmaz


quote:

ORIGINAL: BamaD
Since Hillary or Sanders would be the option yes.
It isn't that I would vote Rep no matter what, it is that Hillary and Sanders are much worse than trump.
Who would I vote for, Truman?


You realize there are more than two parties, right?


I realize that voting for one of them is as effective as refusing to vote, do you?

< Message edited by BamaD -- 2/25/2016 6:53:03 PM >


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Profile   Post #: 138
RE: US elections general thread - 2/26/2016 9:43:42 AM   
mnottertail


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

While states are free to have winner take all primaries, most do not. Most use a proportional representation with either a 13%, 18% or 20% cutoff threshold.
A total of 8 states are winner take all.


Winner take all is more than 8. There is 8 in super tuesday, but wta is much higher than that. More like 20

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(in reply to Phydeaux)
Profile   Post #: 139
RE: US elections general thread - 2/26/2016 10:36:07 AM   
Phydeaux


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Of course there are not: http://frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2016-republican-delegate-allocation-by.html



< Message edited by Phydeaux -- 2/26/2016 10:37:02 AM >

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