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RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/28/2016 8:33:28 AM   
WickedsDesire


Posts: 9362
Joined: 11/4/2015
Status: offline 		That made me laugh a plucky band of Billionaires and oil companies.

The biggest heat sink on the planet are the oceans (is the ocean there is really only the one). The biggest source of heat is an alleged spherical orangey thingy – I think my friend claimed to have seen it one time in my lands, after a mushroom frenzy, before we has him declared quite mad.

Solar activity has only recently come to the fore. The Maunder Minimum (bit of the little ice age), dalton minimum, and a few others, coincide with a cooling phase, although the mechanism for this is not understood. But newer papers propose - attribute this to a rise in volcanism. So in essence no-one really knows for sure.

Oceans Thermohaline circulation: oscillations, gyres, overturning, salinity are only now being studied, and fully realized – although the gulf stream has been known for quite some time and its alleged impact in north western Europe climate – particularly the relatively mild winters, given northerly latitude

That web page stated and in my opinion a dangerous statement…..determine the temperature of the planet’s water and air, and that natural variations in solar activity, ocean heat distribution/cycling, clouds, volcanic activity…play little to no role in long-term climate change.

Perhaps this CO2-drives-climate paradigm needs to be updated to reflect the growing body of scientific evidence that the Sun and natural ocean cycling are primarily what drive temperature variations — not CO2.

The complexities and variables, or hows and whys, of the climate are vast and no-one truly understands them.

The earth warms. Has it been warmer in the past of course it has been many times, same with colder. Have the CO2 levels been higher in the past absolutely

Mother earth will always find its equilibrium. Although I am not sure how accurate that is now given mans intervention into the cycle at an unprecedented rate – a variable mother earth has never had to contended with in 5 billion years

The climate has always been wonky, for many a reasons, but there is a distinct trend to it, or a distinct additional trend to it nowadays, and man is the common denominator. Only a deranged madman would say otherwise – didn’t trump?

Wouldn't take much to invoke catastrophe if we arnet already too late, wouldn't take much to start another ice age (remove us from this interglacial) . The melt water from Greenland may have already started that who knows, volcanoes are unpredictable and Iceland will probably blow its top, sooner rather than later a small asteroid/comet strike and so on.



< Message edited by WickedsDesire -- 9/28/2016 8:35:26 AM >

(in reply to DesideriScuri)
Profile   Post #: 41
RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/28/2016 8:59:51 AM   
UllrsIshtar


Posts: 3693
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quote:

[After setting your car on fire] Listen, your car's temperature has changed before.


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Profile   Post #: 42
RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/28/2016 11:33:04 AM   
Nnanji


Posts: 4552
Joined: 3/29/2016
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: bounty44

quote:

ORIGINAL: dcnovice


quote:

ORIGINAL: ThatDizzyChick

FR
I have always found it interesting that those who oppose the idea of climate change or of it being largley the result of human activity also tend to all be very hrd right wing. I wonder why that is.

To borrow from Deep Throat, "follow the money."


despite her believing something went "over my head" this is pretty much exactly my point to dizzy chick.

look at your own "side" and see where the money, and the power, or the furtherance of a political ideology, goes. as a part of that contemplation, consider which side gets caught falsifying data, quashing dissent, and making extravagant claims that do not materialize.

as far as your question of "what's your source for this claim?", you might just as well ask whats my source for making a claim, for instance, that feminism seeks to dismantle patriarchy, its an essential part of the substance, its ubiquitously recognized.

so much so actually that in some cases, the politics/ideology comes first and the science comes after.

if you don't share in that "recognized ubiquity", then the internet is awash with the marriage between climate science and leftist ideology, you should have no trouble finding tons to read.






Pretty much, climate change politics has become wealth redistribution politics. It's why the UN is so hot for it. All those little countries expecting money from the U.S. Look at the recent Paris talks. The whole thing was about redistributing the U.S. Wealth. Nobody is even interested any more in climate change except for the wealth distribution aspects....well, except the kool aid drinkers.

(in reply to bounty44)
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RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/29/2016 6:51:58 AM   
thompsonx


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ORIGINAL: ThatDizzyChick


Sooooo, theoretical physics is not science then?

You are sooooo mean to morons.

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RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/29/2016 2:37:14 PM   
Awareness


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Joined: 9/8/2010
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri

quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250
Fuckin ghost busters!


That's who I'd call.

Not the new ones. They can't make any money for their studio and they can't even catch one fucking ghost.


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Profile   Post #: 45
RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/30/2016 1:06:24 AM   
Real0ne


Posts: 21189
Joined: 10/25/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: markyugen

Wow, a whopping 77 papers are now advocating this theory. I guess I'll just toss out the 10,800+ peer-reviewed papers already out there making the claim that cc is anthropogenic, or man-made.



Musta been a lot of bovine flatulence is 1100 bc?




http://www.thelivingmoon.com/41pegasus/02files/Global_Warming_003.html

_____________________________

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Yesterdays tinfoil is today's reality!

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RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/30/2016 1:46:11 AM   
longwayhome


Posts: 1035
Joined: 1/9/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Real0ne

quote:

ORIGINAL: markyugen

Wow, a whopping 77 papers are now advocating this theory. I guess I'll just toss out the 10,800+ peer-reviewed papers already out there making the claim that cc is anthropogenic, or man-made.



Musta been a lot of bovine flatulence is 1100 bc?




http://www.thelivingmoon.com/41pegasus/02files/Global_Warming_003.html


That chart has elements of truth in terms of identifying some times when the Earth became warmer and cooler, it but the scales and proportions are all wrong both in terms of the temperature fluctuations and time.

Although different models and statistical analyses are complicated the basic premise of the man made climate change argument isn't complicated. The average temperature of the Earth fluctuates in short term and long term cycles due its position relative to the sun, sun flare activity and to an extent what happens on the Earth. The Earth itself has a major role in this especially over the long term with changes such as the respiration of living things, particularly vegetation. Just to spice it up a bit because things like CO2, other gases, the capacity of the oceans at different temperatures to absorb gas and how bright the surface of the Earth is (ice caps etc.) mess around with things to make the actual temperature system more complex by doing things like triggering faster melts or ice ages than would otherwise be predicted (watch out western and northern Europe).

The point is that we have had a very sharp rise in temperature (with some fluctuations) since industrialisation, compared with previous Earth history. Changes that quick in the past appear to be associated with massive impacts or the huge volcanic activity (not the type we have seen in human history but the multiple super-volcano stuff).

Human intervention is the most likely reason by a very long way. It's not that you can't point to other factors, because it is a complex system but it would be seriously mistaken not to take account of human agency in all this.

We are not just having a little inconvenient fluctuation.

(in reply to Real0ne)
Profile   Post #: 47
RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/30/2016 2:10:13 AM   
longwayhome


Posts: 1035
Joined: 1/9/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: dcnovice

On a lighter note . . .






A bit unfair maybe, but the sad thing is that doing all the sustainable energy stuff creates jobs and income. Companies are just defending their current business model.

Human society isn't going to hell if we move investment away from fossil fuels. We are going to have to do that anyway.

Putting all the moral panic from both sides of the political spectrum aside, the common sense thing is to get on with energy alternatives because we need to anyway. The market will do that itself eventually as prices rise, but it will be less painful and less disruptive if we do it in advance.

Accepting that we are unlikely to all be burned off the face of the Earth in the next century, denying the existence of climate change only means that we will be forced to do the right thing later and with massive social and political upheaval. We don't have a good record of that kind of thing as a human race and tend to go round killing each other before we settle down into the new reality.

I'm an optimist in that I think we will eventually get our fingers out, but denying the views of the settled majority of almost all scientists isn't helping.

(in reply to dcnovice)
Profile   Post #: 48
RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/30/2016 10:55:27 AM   
Nnanji


Posts: 4552
Joined: 3/29/2016
Status: offline 		Again...settled science. The only settled science in the universe.

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Profile   Post #: 49
RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/30/2016 11:59:08 AM   
dcnovice


Posts: 37282
Joined: 8/2/2006
Status: offline 		FR

Interesting read.

https://profmandia.wordpress.com/2014/02/18/republican-meteorologist-entrepreneur-debating-cause-of-climate-change-is-moral-and-scientific-equivalent-of-debating-gravity/

_____________________________

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it's never enough to keep up.

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INTELLIGENT LIFE IN THE UNIVERSE

(in reply to Nnanji)
Profile   Post #: 50
RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/30/2016 12:34:49 PM   
Real0ne


Posts: 21189
Joined: 10/25/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: longwayhome


quote:

ORIGINAL: Real0ne

quote:

ORIGINAL: markyugen

Wow, a whopping 77 papers are now advocating this theory. I guess I'll just toss out the 10,800+ peer-reviewed papers already out there making the claim that cc is anthropogenic, or man-made.



Musta been a lot of bovine flatulence is 1100 bc?




http://www.thelivingmoon.com/41pegasus/02files/Global_Warming_003.html


That chart has elements of truth in terms of identifying some times when the Earth became warmer and cooler, it but the scales and proportions are all wrong both in terms of the temperature fluctuations and time.

Although different models and statistical analyses are complicated the basic premise of the man made climate change argument isn't complicated. The average temperature of the Earth fluctuates in short term and long term cycles due its position relative to the sun, sun flare activity and to an extent what happens on the Earth. The Earth itself has a major role in this especially over the long term with changes such as the respiration of living things, particularly vegetation. Just to spice it up a bit because things like CO2, other gases, the capacity of the oceans at different temperatures to absorb gas and how bright the surface of the Earth is (ice caps etc.) mess around with things to make the actual temperature system more complex by doing things like triggering faster melts or ice ages than would otherwise be predicted (watch out western and northern Europe).

The point is that we have had a very sharp rise in temperature (with some fluctuations) since industrialisation, compared with previous Earth history. Changes that quick in the past appear to be associated with massive impacts or the huge volcanic activity (not the type we have seen in human history but the multiple super-volcano stuff).

Human intervention is the most likely reason by a very long way. It's not that you can't point to other factors, because it is a complex system but it would be seriously mistaken not to take account of human agency in all this.

We are not just having a little inconvenient fluctuation.



so we look at the abrupt drop at 1300AD, can we blame that on man also?

How about the recent increase in flare activitiy, seems to be a point few take into consideration.






the earth as a built in carbon cycle balancer, more clouds more rain.

_____________________________

"We the Borg" of the us imperialists....resistance is futile

Democracy; The 'People' voted on 'which' amendment?

Yesterdays tinfoil is today's reality!

"No man's life, liberty, or property is safe while the legislature is in session

(in reply to longwayhome)
Profile   Post #: 51
RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/30/2016 4:13:18 PM   
PeonForHer


Posts: 19612
Joined: 9/27/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: dcnovice

FR

Interesting read.

https://profmandia.wordpress.com/2014/02/18/republican-meteorologist-entrepreneur-debating-cause-of-climate-change-is-moral-and-scientific-equivalent-of-debating-gravity/



"To the heart of your question, why don’t more climate scientists enter into the public debate? Because the debate is over. It’s the moral and scientific equivalent of debating gravity. The experts have spoken, and because a very small minority of stakeholders and shareholders don’t care for the implications there is vociferous push-back from certain special interests."

Yep, yep. "Welcome to this TV debate on the shape of the Earth. On my left is Prof. Sane, who claims that it's round. In order to maintain balance and enable both sides of the debate, on my right is Mr Fruitcake, who insists that it's flat'.

I don't join in discussions about this on this forum now because the Mr Fruitcakes of this world just aren't worth talking to any more about global warming. They have lost the argument, and that is that.

_____________________________

http://www.domme-chronicles.com


(in reply to dcnovice)
Profile   Post #: 52
RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/30/2016 4:38:04 PM   
bounty44


Posts: 6374
Joined: 11/1/2014
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Nnanji

Again...settled science. The only settled science in the universe.


its like talking to a wall isn't it?? its maddening.

(in reply to Nnanji)
Profile   Post #: 53
RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/30/2016 4:46:13 PM   
longwayhome


Posts: 1035
Joined: 1/9/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Real0ne

[Edited]

so we look at the abrupt drop at 1300AD, can we blame that on man also?

How about the recent increase in flare activitiy, seems to be a point few take into consideration.

the earth as a built in carbon cycle balancer, more clouds more rain.


You are right of course.

Nobody is saying that we have not had large fluctuations in temperature before or that the Earth doesn't respond to increased CO2 in a complex way.

The argument is about the nature of the recent rise and the cause of it (not withstanding that there have been fluctuations within that). The point is that the recent rise is still there when you factor in flare activity and other causes.

There is no real question that mankind has contributed to global warming. There is a debate to be had about how quickly this will cause a catastrophe for the human race, but not the central truth about man-made climate change. The Earth will be just fine. If we heat our race and much of the flora and fauna out of existence, the Earth over millions of years will heal itself. The question is about human populations and whether we should panic a little or panic a lot.

Peon is right. The Earth is round, the big bang happened and any serious debate about the existence of man-made global warming is over.

(in reply to Real0ne)
Profile   Post #: 54
RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/30/2016 4:53:30 PM   
AtUrCervix


Posts: 2111
Joined: 1/15/2016
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Nnanji

http://notrickszone.com/2016/09/22/4-new-papers-link-solar-activity-natural-ocean-cycles-to-climate-and-find-warmer-temps-during-1700s-1800s/#sthash.noIOk83z.w0sV465R.dpbs

4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cycles To Climate – And Find Warmer Temps During 1700s, 1800s - See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2016/09/22/4-new-papers-link-solar-activity-natural-ocean-cycles-to-climate-and-find-warmer-temps-during-1700s-1800s


The latest papers linking solar activity as well as ocean oscillations to climate changes are listed below. Not only do these papers describe solar activity and ocean oscillations as the dominant mechanisms of climate change, they provide evidence that the modern, post-1950 period does not contain the highest temperatures of the last few hundred years. In fact, these papers each document that temperatures during some periods of the 1700s and/or 1800s were just as warm or warmer than present temperatures.


Here's the fucking deal:

It's getting warmer.

There's a lot of shit that could make it warmer.

Could be cars.....could be cow poop (scientists say that's 80%....methane)....hamburgers are a wonderful thing....me love hamburgers....BUT....

We gotta do better....simple enough!

Done.

(in reply to Nnanji)
Profile   Post #: 55
RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/30/2016 4:57:32 PM   
PeonForHer


Posts: 19612
Joined: 9/27/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: bounty44


quote:

ORIGINAL: Nnanji

Again...settled science. The only settled science in the universe.


its like talking to a wall isn't it?? its maddening.


You've got that right, but not in the way you think.

_____________________________

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Profile   Post #: 56
RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/30/2016 5:23:14 PM   
Awareness


Posts: 3918
Joined: 9/8/2010
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Nnanji

Again...settled science. The only settled science in the universe.
No. Scientific consensus.

All science is an imperfect attempt to model the Universe. Thus, all scientific theories are - in effect - models of the Universe. More specifically, they are models of aspects of the Universe.

Now, the true test of a model - be it a scientific model or a model of human behaviour - is its ability to predict the future. No model is perfect, but a model whose ability to predict the future is better than another model can be considered to be a more accurate and thus more useful model. In general, people tend to consider this model to be more complete and this determination is achieved through scientific consensus. Through replication of results, refinement of ideas and ongoing experiments to validate the model within the current capabilities of the scientific community.

Climate scientists have a broad understanding of the influences upon the mean temperatures of the planet. They have a model of how global warming is influenced by human industrial activity.

This model is not perfect. It is fundamentally imperfect - like all science - however it is SUPERIOR TO HAVING NO MODEL AT ALL.

The loony side of the climate debate is a bunch of conspiracy theorists and industrialists who have no counter-model but just try and pick holes in the prevailing scientific model. The conspiracy theorists do it because they're fucked in the head and the industrialists do it because they care more about their personal wealth than they do the livability of the planet.

To be taken seriously, climate science deniers would have to present a counter-model which can be tested. They would have to write up experiments whose results could be replicated - in other words, they would have to do science.

They don't do science, because climate science denial is politics, not science. It has zero credibility and anyone who actually understood science would know that. Then again, I guess you're voting for Trump. After all, as he said "The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive."

That's pretty much exactly the standard of logic used by climate science deniers.

_____________________________

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Profile   Post #: 57
RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/30/2016 5:48:06 PM   
bounty44


Posts: 6374
Joined: 11/1/2014
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: bounty44


quote:

ORIGINAL: Nnanji

Again...settled science. The only settled science in the universe.


its like talking to a wall isn't it?? its maddening.


Climate Science Is Not Settled - WSJ

Richard S. Lindzen: The Climate Science Isn't Settled - WSJ

Climate Science Is Not Settled - friendsofscience.org

Climate Science is NOT Settled - Ice Age Now

Skeptical Science, Is the science settled?

Climate Science Isn't Settled – The Moderate Voice

John R. Christy | Climate science isn’t necessarily ‘settled’

Climate Science is Not Settled - Home | NYU Center for

Is Climate Science Settled Because It Cannot Be Settled ...

Climate Change: Not Science and Not Settled

The Climate Science Isn’t Settled – Cervantes

Climate science is not settled. No science is.

Former Obama Official: Climate Change Not 'Settled' Science

Charles Krauthammer: The myth of ?settled science?

quote:

If climate science is settled, why do its predictions keep changing?


The Climate Science Isn't Settled

Climate Science Is Settled, Except When It’s Not

The Myth of Settled Science | Watts Up With That

Unsettled science | The Spectator

quote:

Far from being settled... the climate models are failing


‘Climate Science is NOT Settled’ – Call for Clexit from UN ...

The Science is Not Settled - Center for the Study of

Climate Change Consensus: Science Is Unsettled

How Can Climate Science Be Settled? - NYTimes.com

Climate change and the ?settled science? bullies

Climate Science is NOT Settled | Climate Change Dispatch

Former NASA Scientist Dispels Notion Global Warming Is ...

quote:

A former NASA climate scientist has put out a new report criticizing the argument that global warming is settled science.


I think you get the idea.

a pox on the next person who uses the term "settled science" or "consensus." or feel free to refute the points/findings/positions in all of the articles above.

(in reply to bounty44)
Profile   Post #: 58
RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/30/2016 6:02:47 PM   
longwayhome


Posts: 1035
Joined: 1/9/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Awareness


quote:

ORIGINAL: Nnanji

Again...settled science. The only settled science in the universe.
No. Scientific consensus.

[Edited]



Absolutely.

The problem is that some people don't understand the scientific process and the relationship between theory, hypothesis, fact and consensus.

The challenge, as you rightly point out, is for those who do not agree with the global warming consensus to develop an alternative hypothesis, which matches the historical and experimental data we do have, and is backed up by a credible model.

As long as people can't handle the concept of uncertainty or confidence intervals, they will continue to misinterpret the fact that our understanding in many areas is incomplete as indicating that current understanding is "wrong" and any old alternative pipe-dream will do.

Our incomplete understanding of the behaviour of electrons hasn't prevented us from using the scientific "facts" we do know to achieve decades of successful electronics and chemistry, which have transformed our lives, using models that we know are only approximations of reality.

(in reply to Awareness)
Profile   Post #: 59
RE: 4 New Papers Link Solar Activity, Natural Ocean Cyc... - 9/30/2016 6:04:24 PM   
longwayhome


Posts: 1035
Joined: 1/9/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: bounty44


quote:

ORIGINAL: bounty44


quote:

ORIGINAL: Nnanji

Again...settled science. The only settled science in the universe.


its like talking to a wall isn't it?? its maddening.


Climate Science Is Not Settled - WSJ

Richard S. Lindzen: The Climate Science Isn't Settled - WSJ

Climate Science Is Not Settled - friendsofscience.org

Climate Science is NOT Settled - Ice Age Now

Skeptical Science, Is the science settled?

Climate Science Isn't Settled – The Moderate Voice

John R. Christy | Climate science isn’t necessarily ‘settled’

Climate Science is Not Settled - Home | NYU Center for

Is Climate Science Settled Because It Cannot Be Settled ...

Climate Change: Not Science and Not Settled

The Climate Science Isn’t Settled – Cervantes

Climate science is not settled. No science is.

Former Obama Official: Climate Change Not 'Settled' Science

Charles Krauthammer: The myth of ?settled science?

quote:

If climate science is settled, why do its predictions keep changing?


The Climate Science Isn't Settled

Climate Science Is Settled, Except When It’s Not

The Myth of Settled Science | Watts Up With That

Unsettled science | The Spectator

quote:

Far from being settled... the climate models are failing


‘Climate Science is NOT Settled’ – Call for Clexit from UN ...

The Science is Not Settled - Center for the Study of

Climate Change Consensus: Science Is Unsettled

How Can Climate Science Be Settled? - NYTimes.com

Climate change and the ?settled science? bullies

Climate Science is NOT Settled | Climate Change Dispatch

Former NASA Scientist Dispels Notion Global Warming Is ...

quote:

A former NASA climate scientist has put out a new report criticizing the argument that global warming is settled science.


I think you get the idea.

a pox on the next person who uses the term "settled science" or "consensus." or feel free to refute the points/findings/positions in all of the articles above.



The internet is not always your friend.

(in reply to bounty44)
Profile   Post #: 60
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