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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 5:05:47 PM   
LTRsubNW


Posts: 1604
Joined: 5/6/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: LadyEllen

As seeks said - the USD is falling because of the balance of trade figures and loads of other stuff I dont understand much any more.

But for US exporters, its a good thing. It means that US products become cheaper on export and so more should be sold. This then requires increased production in the US, and hopefully the return of the only true source of wealth, manufacturing.

Meanwhile, it also makes all the imports the US is sucking in, more expensive, reducing their number, and encouraging home manufacture of those goods.

E


(Ya know...for someone who doesn't understand it all that well, you just finished explaining the intricacies of the actual facts flawlessly...didn't miss a beat.  Couldn't have done it better m'sef)

_____________________________

Small deeds will always mean more than large intentions.

(in reply to LadyEllen)
Profile   Post #: 21
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 5:09:03 PM   
LTRsubNW


Posts: 1604
Joined: 5/6/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: subfever

quote:

ORIGINAL: Archer

Currency value is a closed system, for the value of one nation's to rise others must fall.


In international trade, this is true.

quote:

I find it a bit odd to see some who want worldwide economics to become more evenly distributed argue about the falling of the dollar like its a bad thing.


Since I don't trade internationally, or travel abroad very often, I really don't care too much whether or not the dollar rises or falls internationally.

Of course, if it rises or falls too sharply internationally, we might eventually feel a trickle-down effect in the prices we pay for goods produced outside our borders. This is why the consumer goods manufactorers abroad want to devalue their currency as quickly as we do. If they didn't, their goods would cost Americans a lot more, and may no longer be competitive.

What I care more about is that our dollars have devalued by over 96% since 1913 (the year the privately-owned Federal Reserve took control of "our" money) and by over 80% since 1971 (when our money's last tie to gold was severed). This is an insidious tax that very few people ever really think about in depth.

quote:

I can see conservatives doing it without coganative disconnect, but for those with  socialistic viewpoint How can he rest of the world become economicly advance without a concurrent reduction in the economic strength of the US?


Well, my views are certainly more socialistic than capitalistic. But I'm not certain why that should either effect my opinion or give my opinion any more weight than the next guy's.

I don't believe it's really a matter of the rest of the world becoming economically advanced without a concurrent reduction in the economic strength of the US. I think it's simply a matter of the rest of the world keeping up with our rate of dollar deflation for competitive trading purposes on consumer goods they produce for sale here in the US. 





(Funny ain't it...everyone's pissed that the dollar buys half what it did in 1986, but no one stands up and says "Why, of course I'll sell you my house for exactly what I paid for it 20 years ago".)
 
Go figure.

_____________________________

Small deeds will always mean more than large intentions.

(in reply to subfever)
Profile   Post #: 22
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 5:11:31 PM   
LTRsubNW


Posts: 1604
Joined: 5/6/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

quote:

ORIGINAL: subfever

Yes, I would welcome a new currency; one that is owned and printed by the US Government for the benefit of the people, and not by the privately-owned Federal Reserve which benefits the super-elite... like what we have now.

A multi-national currency would just be another step towards the elite's secret plan towards a one world government and currency.

http://www.populistamerica.com/outing_the_constitutional_criminals

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0001519.html


I agree and we need to stop spending money that we do not have as well.
And these "Free Trade" agreements are killing us.
Year after year of trade deficits.


Free trade agreements aren't bringing us trade deficits.

People continuing to buy stuff from countries who make stuff cheaper than we can, bring trade deficits.

(Stop buying the stuff and trade deficits disappear, just like magic)

_____________________________

Small deeds will always mean more than large intentions.

(in reply to popeye1250)
Profile   Post #: 23
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 5:39:47 PM   
Sinergy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: UtopianRanger

It's bad enough if you're an individual and you get into this kind of trouble, but what happens to a nation with the dominant reserve currency in this kind of trouble? Well.... it's creditors eventually decide to cut their losses and divest themselves out of that currency until that currency is virtually worthless because its only relevance is that its tied to massive debt.



I agree with what you have written, UtopianRanger, but if you read books like "The Best Democracy Money Can Buy" and "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" it becomes fairly obvious why the US Government has done what it has done.

Saddam Hussein, while not a particularly nice man, was not in anybodies cross hairs until he refused to enter into an agreement with the United States similar to the one we have with Saudi Arabia, to whit, a requirement that they sell their oil in US dollars.  So he got invaded and presumably if the country ever gets fixed by us, they will sell their oil for US dollars.  If we pull out and let somebody else fix it, I suspect it will be sold for Euros, which is one of the few relatively stable currencies on the planet at this point.  Say what you want about having resolve to rebuild Iraq, but the only reason Monkeyboy gives a flying whatever about that entire country is the fear that we would have to buy the oil for something that is not dollars.

The Saudis are who they are, but they do know that if they ever try to sell their oil for something other than US dollars, they will go the way of Saddam.

Chavez, in Venezuala, has been basically sitting on his oil, refusing to borrow money from the World Bank (which would make his country a debtor nation subject to having loans called in, etc), and refusing to sell his oil for US dollars.  So the media in the United States has now decided this popularly and democratically elected, and much beloved ruler is an evil man who must be overthrown.

In the United States, we no longer have a gold standard, we have an oil standard.  The ultimate goal of joining our currencies with Canada and Mexico is to increase the reserve money we can use to stabilize our economy.  I will use the loaf of bread analogy posted earlier to describe the problem Monkeyboy and his ilk are having with our currency.

If you have a loaf of bread as your standard, similar to gold or oil, and you print the $1.00 the loaf of bread costs.  Your $1.00 bill is worth exactly $1.00 and is tied to the value of the loaf of bread.  If you print $5.00 worth of money, your loaf of bread now costs $5.00 since the intrinsic value of the goods you can purchase with it remains stable. 

Lets say you print $2.00 worth of currency, and loan Joe $3.00 worth of credit.  Again, it now costs $5.00 to buy that loaf of bread since the standard worth holding up your currency (both loaned and printed) has remained the same.

Monkeyboy dropped interest rates specifically to increase the amount of money borrowed, thereby creating inflation in the United States.  This is lovely for him, since the $1,000,000,000,000 dollar debt we have to pay, if money is worth 50% what it was before, is now easier to pay off since the net worth of each individual dollar was cut in half.

Of course, then he proceeded to borrow another $1,000,000,000,000 from people like China that we would rather not owe money to.  This works until the day the Chinese debt collector shows up at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue with an order to pay, and forces Monkeyboy to sign a new debt contract requiring payment in something like Euros.

Just me, could be wrong, but there you go.

Sinergy

_____________________________

"There is a fine line between clever and stupid"
David St. Hubbins "This Is Spinal Tap"

"Every so often you let a word or phrase out and you want to catch it and bring it back. You cant do that, it is gone, gone forever." J. Danforth Quayle


(in reply to UtopianRanger)
Profile   Post #: 24
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 6:04:58 PM   
subfever


Posts: 2895
Joined: 5/22/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: UtopianRanger

...I hate to be the bearer of bad news....but it's coming folks and there's not a single thing Barrack Obama, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Hilliary Clinton or any of the other ''usual suspects'' is going to do about it.

We're gonna see change like we've never seen before.


Are you saying that you have no faith in the house-of-cards that our monetary system and international trade are built upon? ...   

(in reply to UtopianRanger)
Profile   Post #: 25
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 6:12:44 PM   
MercilessMarcy


Posts: 80
Joined: 11/12/2006
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I agree whole-heartedly with Utopian Ranger and Sinergy.    The day is coming real soon that we, as a nation, are going to have to pay the piper.  Most folks don't realize that China's leaders have a plan to ruin the United States.  The didn't put it on a back burner or decide to let it go.  It is coming along wonderfully.  ANYDAY they call our debt, we are screwed.   OVERNIGHT, like Argentina experienced, your bank account is locked.  You have no savings, inflation rises into the thousands of % . It will take decades to recover, why?   We only manufacture 30% of what we use.  Our economy is based 70% on CONSUMER SPENDING.   So imagine boys and girls, it now costs $10 for a loaf of bread, if you can find it.  You no longer have a savings account, hell, you no longer have a bank!  BUT,  you still owe your mortgage, that didn't go away.  You still have to pay taxes.  Truly, it will be a drop in our standard of living Americans of the last two generations have never experienced.  You think the middle class is squeezed now?  You ain't seen nothing yet. 

What to do when the sky is falling?  buy gold and silver coins.  They aren't tied to currency.  Start a garden next year.  It takes 2 to 3 years to become good at it.  Plant some fruit trees.  Buy bartering items, like coffee and sugar.  Think disaster and have a plan!   Let's say all us doomsayers are wrong, what's the worst that my advice has cost you?  Some hours in the sunshine, fresh organic produce, fresh fruit,  gold and silver coins are good investments.  Canned coffee is good indefinately.  Sugar kept in glass containers doesn't go bad.    There's so much more to being truly prepared.   "The enclycopeadia of country living"  is a good start.  It covers from if you have some money to if you have none.   Ask your grandparents what they did in bad times.  Ask them, what's the worst time you suffered through and what did you do, how about your folks?  What do you wish you had had that you didn't?  What was the best thing you did and why?


(in reply to Sinergy)
Profile   Post #: 26
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 6:15:49 PM   
Lordandmaster


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Joined: 6/22/2004
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Ummm...I don't agree, and I don't think buying canned coffee is a great investment either.

quote:

ORIGINAL: MercilessMarcy

gold and silver coins are good investments

(in reply to MercilessMarcy)
Profile   Post #: 27
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 6:23:54 PM   
subfever


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Joined: 5/22/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lordandmaster

Yeah, if people think the dollar is low now, imagine how low it would go if China ever decides to sell its holdings.  But they have their own reasons to keep their currency cheap.


Indeed they do have their own reasons.

China doesn't want to jeopardize their largest marketplace for all the doo-dads and gee-zaws they manufacture and sell.

However, China's middle class is growing, and they have a huge population. So the question becomes:

Will China keep financing our deficit after they've developed a domestic marketplace of their own large enough to replace ours?

(in reply to Lordandmaster)
Profile   Post #: 28
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 6:30:02 PM   
subfever


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Joined: 5/22/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: LTRsubNW

(Funny ain't it...everyone's pissed that the dollar buys half what it did in 1986, but no one stands up and says "Why, of course I'll sell you my house for exactly what I paid for it 20 years ago".)
 
Go figure.


Go figure what?

Why no one, in current market conditions, would be willing to sell their home for 50 cents on the dollar?

(in reply to LTRsubNW)
Profile   Post #: 29
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 6:39:49 PM   
subfever


Posts: 2895
Joined: 5/22/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: LTRsubNW

Free trade agreements aren't bringing us trade deficits.

People continuing to buy stuff from countries who make stuff cheaper than we can, bring trade deficits.

(Stop buying the stuff and trade deficits disappear, just like magic)


Just stop buying the stuff, 'eh?

Go tell the millions of citizens who are living week-to-week (or are already on subsidy) that they should stop buying foreign-made goods from now on, and pay more for American-made goods so that we can make the trade deficit magically go away. 

Then get ready to duck...  

(in reply to LTRsubNW)
Profile   Post #: 30
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 6:46:49 PM   
Lordandmaster


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I don't think that's going to happen for a LONG time.  They have tons of problems.

quote:

ORIGINAL: subfever

Will China keep financing our deficit after they've developed a domestic marketplace of their own large enough to replace ours?

(in reply to subfever)
Profile   Post #: 31
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 7:00:37 PM   
Dtesmoac


Posts: 565
Joined: 6/22/2006
Status: offline
Whilst much of the weakness of the dollar is linked to the weakness of the US economy the effect on currancy reserves and pricing of international goods in $ has not yet been mentioned.

Most countries hold gold and currancy reserves. Previously gold and the $ have been the main holding stock items. When the Euro was introduced many countries replaced part of these reserves with Euros. In effect less demand for $ pushed the value down. When combined with other factors e.g. trade defficit this pushed the value even lower. As the value of the Euro continued to rise against the dollar it became viewed as a hard currancy and so other countries converted some of their reserves to Euros, again reducing the demand for dallars. As oil is priced in dollars the cost of oil for Euro countries became relatively "cheaper" (actually the effect of the price rise was just less severe) and producers saw the actual purchasing power of the money they received from their oil rising less than they thought. In effect in the market economy the $ is in a glut and so the price of the dollar falls.

This combined with the other factors mentioned previously is why there has been a dramatic fall in the dollar.


(in reply to Lordandmaster)
Profile   Post #: 32
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 7:22:52 PM   
subfever


Posts: 2895
Joined: 5/22/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sinergy

I agree with what you have written, UtopianRanger, but if you read books like "The Best Democracy Money Can Buy" and "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" it becomes fairly obvious why the US Government has done what it has done.


Excellent books!

quote:

Saddam Hussein, while not a particularly nice man, was not in anybodies cross hairs until he refused to enter into an agreement with the United States similar to the one we have with Saudi Arabia, to whit, a requirement that they sell their oil in US dollars. 


Bingo! Pay attention people, this man knows what he's talking about.

quote:

So he got invaded and presumably if the country ever gets fixed by us, they will sell their oil for US dollars.  If we pull out and let somebody else fix it, I suspect it will be sold for Euros, which is one of the few relatively stable currencies on the planet at this point.  Say what you want about having resolve to rebuild Iraq, but the only reason Monkeyboy gives a flying whatever about that entire country is the fear that we would have to buy the oil for something that is not dollars.


Probably a control issue and a little ego involved there too...

quote:

The Saudis are who they are, but they do know that if they ever try to sell their oil for something other than US dollars, they will go the way of Saddam.


That's why the US will eventually concoct a reason to go to war with Iran, who stopped taking dollars for oil back in March. Can't do it now. Not enough manpower.

quote:

Chavez, in Venezuala, has been basically sitting on his oil, refusing to borrow money from the World Bank (which would make his country a debtor nation subject to having loans called in, etc), and refusing to sell his oil for US dollars.  So the media in the United States has now decided this popularly and democratically elected, and much beloved ruler is an evil man who must be overthrown.


And the sad thing is that the masses here in the US will probably buy into the propanganda too... just as usual. I can see the mindless flag-waving and blind patriotism repeating itself all over again. 

quote:

In the United States, we no longer have a gold standard, we have an oil standard.  The ultimate goal of joining our currencies with Canada and Mexico is to increase the reserve money we can use to stabilize our economy. 


I would say that the ultimate goal is a one-world currency and government.

Temporarily stabilizing the US economy is more of a short-term benefit along the way.  

quote:

Monkeyboy dropped interest rates specifically to increase the amount of money borrowed, thereby creating inflation in the United States.  This is lovely for him, since the $1,000,000,000,000 dollar debt we have to pay, if money is worth 50% what it was before, is now easier to pay off since the net worth of each individual dollar was cut in half.


Simply put, it'll be easier to repay debt in the future with dollars of less value.

quote:

Of course, then he proceeded to borrow another $1,000,000,000,000 from people like China that we would rather not owe money to.  This works until the day the Chinese debt collector shows up at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue with an order to pay, and forces Monkeyboy to sign a new debt contract requiring payment in something like Euros.


Ahh... but I'm sure the elite has a ready-made solution for the arrival of that "crisis," of which they themselves created. But it will be presented as a saving measure to the economy and the American people.

(in reply to Sinergy)
Profile   Post #: 33
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 7:25:15 PM   
Lordandmaster


Posts: 10943
Joined: 6/22/2004
Status: offline
One thing about Chavez: his popularity in Venezuela is generally overestimated.  He has won his elections with 52-57% majorities.  Not more than that.  He has many domestic enemies.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sinergy

Chavez, in Venezuala, has been basically sitting on his oil, refusing to borrow money from the World Bank (which would make his country a debtor nation subject to having loans called in, etc), and refusing to sell his oil for US dollars.  So the media in the United States has now decided this popularly and democratically elected, and much beloved ruler is an evil man who must be overthrown.

(in reply to Sinergy)
Profile   Post #: 34
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 7:28:06 PM   
subfever


Posts: 2895
Joined: 5/22/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lordandmaster

I don't think that's going to happen for a LONG time.  They have tons of problems.

quote:

ORIGINAL: subfever

Will China keep financing our deficit after they've developed a domestic marketplace of their own large enough to replace ours?



Yeah... one being that they're even more corrupt than we are...

(in reply to Lordandmaster)
Profile   Post #: 35
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 7:53:33 PM   
subfever


Posts: 2895
Joined: 5/22/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MercilessMarcy

I agree whole-heartedly with Utopian Ranger and Sinergy.    The day is coming real soon that we, as a nation, are going to have to pay the piper.  Most folks don't realize that China's leaders have a plan to ruin the United States.  The didn't put it on a back burner or decide to let it go.  It is coming along wonderfully.  ANYDAY they call our debt, we are screwed.   OVERNIGHT, like Argentina experienced, your bank account is locked.  You have no savings, inflation rises into the thousands of % . It will take decades to recover, why?   We only manufacture 30% of what we use.  Our economy is based 70% on CONSUMER SPENDING.   So imagine boys and girls, it now costs $10 for a loaf of bread, if you can find it.  You no longer have a savings account, hell, you no longer have a bank!  BUT,  you still owe your mortgage, that didn't go away.  You still have to pay taxes.  Truly, it will be a drop in our standard of living Americans of the last two generations have never experienced.  You think the middle class is squeezed now?  You ain't seen nothing yet. 

What to do when the sky is falling?  buy gold and silver coins.  They aren't tied to currency.  Start a garden next year.  It takes 2 to 3 years to become good at it.  Plant some fruit trees.  Buy bartering items, like coffee and sugar.  Think disaster and have a plan!   Let's say all us doomsayers are wrong, what's the worst that my advice has cost you?  Some hours in the sunshine, fresh organic produce, fresh fruit,  gold and silver coins are good investments.  Canned coffee is good indefinately.  Sugar kept in glass containers doesn't go bad.    There's so much more to being truly prepared.   "The enclycopeadia of country living"  is a good start.  It covers from if you have some money to if you have none.   Ask your grandparents what they did in bad times.  Ask them, what's the worst time you suffered through and what did you do, how about your folks?  What do you wish you had had that you didn't?  What was the best thing you did and why?




I think your advice makes sense. It's cheap insurance.

The time to obtain silver and gold coins is before the sky is falling. Once the sky is falling, your paper money may not be worth much.

I think a ratio of 80% to 90% silver coins to 10% or 20% gold coins makes sense, since silver is in smaller denominations, and better for barter.

Gold and silver are currently near multi-year highs. For this reason, I see gold and silver coins more as insurance than investments. But I could be wrong. These metals may still have a long way to go in valuations before they "top out." 

The only advice I will add here is to get out of debt if at all possible. If this is not possible, then reduce your debt as much as possible.

(in reply to MercilessMarcy)
Profile   Post #: 36
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 8:11:05 PM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline
the dollar isnt backed by gold.


no doubt the romp in iraq is a costly one. i have to wonder exactly what did we "buy"

argh

(in reply to subfever)
Profile   Post #: 37
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 9:09:33 PM   
Sinergy


Posts: 9383
Joined: 4/26/2004
Status: offline
 
Hello A/all, while I agree with most of the following, there are two things I have issues with.

quote:

ORIGINAL: MercilessMarcy

Most folks don't realize that China's leaders have a plan to ruin the United States. 

buy gold and silver coins. 



China doesnt necessarily want to ruin the United States.

The simply want to milk the goose that laid the golden egg as much as they can before they have to slaughter it.

Gold and silver only work as long as people agree that gold and silver are worth anything.  My personal approach is to learn to smelt and make steel tools.

A marketable skill is worth much more than money hidden in your mattress.

Sinergy

_____________________________

"There is a fine line between clever and stupid"
David St. Hubbins "This Is Spinal Tap"

"Every so often you let a word or phrase out and you want to catch it and bring it back. You cant do that, it is gone, gone forever." J. Danforth Quayle


(in reply to MercilessMarcy)
Profile   Post #: 38
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 9:12:21 PM   
Sinergy


Posts: 9383
Joined: 4/26/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: subfever

quote:

ORIGINAL: LTRsubNW

(Funny ain't it...everyone's pissed that the dollar buys half what it did in 1986, but no one stands up and says "Why, of course I'll sell you my house for exactly what I paid for it 20 years ago".)
 
Go figure.


Go figure what?

Why no one, in current market conditions, would be willing to sell their home for 50 cents on the dollar?


This, of course, explains why housing prices have dropped 30% in the last 12 months and average time on the market for houses up for sale is now approaching 12 to 24 and rising.

You can price your house for whatever you think it is worth.

You can sell your house for whatever the market is willing to pay for it.

Sinergy

_____________________________

"There is a fine line between clever and stupid"
David St. Hubbins "This Is Spinal Tap"

"Every so often you let a word or phrase out and you want to catch it and bring it back. You cant do that, it is gone, gone forever." J. Danforth Quayle


(in reply to subfever)
Profile   Post #: 39
RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 9:15:46 PM   
Sinergy


Posts: 9383
Joined: 4/26/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: subfever

Ahh... but I'm sure the elite has a ready-made solution for the arrival of that "crisis," of which they themselves created. But it will be presented as a saving measure to the economy and the American people.



I think you are giving Monkeyboy way too much credit.

I dont think he is the sort of person who thinks "gee, what if what I think is wrong."

Sinergy

_____________________________

"There is a fine line between clever and stupid"
David St. Hubbins "This Is Spinal Tap"

"Every so often you let a word or phrase out and you want to catch it and bring it back. You cant do that, it is gone, gone forever." J. Danforth Quayle


(in reply to subfever)
Profile   Post #: 40
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