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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 10:01:36 PM   
subfever


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sinergy

quote:

ORIGINAL: subfever

Ahh... but I'm sure the elite has a ready-made solution for the arrival of that "crisis," of which they themselves created. But it will be presented as a saving measure to the economy and the American people.



I think you are giving Monkeyboy way too much credit.

I dont think he is the sort of person who thinks "gee, what if what I think is wrong."

Sinergy


You misunderstand me.

In my opinion, Bush could barely think his way out of a paper bag if left to his own accord.

I see Bush as a puppet-figurehead, pawn of the elite.

(in reply to Sinergy)
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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 10:04:49 PM   
subfever


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quote:

ORIGINAL: pahunkboy

the dollar isnt backed by gold.



Who here, made any such claim? ...

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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 10:28:28 PM   
subfever


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sinergy

Gold and silver only work as long as people agree that gold and silver are worth anything. 


This is true, but people have accepted gold and silver for centuries. What leads you to believe that people would reject gold and silver coins, in the event that our monetary system crashed?

quote:

My personal approach is to learn to smelt and make steel tools. A marketable skill is worth much more than money hidden in your mattress.


There is nothing wrong with your approach, but millions of people won't be in your situation. And these people will need a medium of exchange.

Also, gold and silver coins are portable and immediate.

Food commodities might become very scarce. People tend to hoard when they are scared. What if a trader with one loaf of bread left to barter has to decide between someone else's silver coins, or your promise to make him a steel tool? Or are you just going to carry around an entire collection of tools, hoping you can fill his need?  

Also, unless you own your home free and clear, you may not even have a place to work your marketable skill.

I still believe that gold and silver coins are the best insurance for a monetary/financial collapse, especially US gold and silver coins in various denominations. 

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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/4/2006 10:51:27 PM   
subfever


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sinergy

quote:

ORIGINAL: subfever

quote:

ORIGINAL: LTRsubNW

(Funny ain't it...everyone's pissed that the dollar buys half what it did in 1986, but no one stands up and says "Why, of course I'll sell you my house for exactly what I paid for it 20 years ago".)
 
Go figure.


Go figure what?

Why no one, in current market conditions, would be willing to sell their home for 50 cents on the dollar?


This, of course, explains why housing prices have dropped 30% in the last 12 months and average time on the market for houses up for sale is now approaching 12 to 24 and rising.



Whew... that's a tough market! You must live in one of the more extreme areas. In my neck of the woods, average values are down almost 10% from their all-time highs, and market time of 3-9 months is typical.

quote:

You can price your house for whatever you think it is worth.


This is true.

quote:

You can sell your house for whatever the market is willing to pay for it.


This is also true.

But you may have missed my original point which you responded to. Perhaps I didn't explain it well. I'll try to explain it more clearly:

My point was that no one would be willing to sell their house in current market conditions, whatever current market conditions may be, for 50 cents on the dollar.

Hope this helps.  

(in reply to Sinergy)
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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/5/2006 1:53:46 AM   
seeksfemslave


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An interesting discussion. I didn't realise there were so many doom mongers in the US.
One point I would like some more info. on is the claim that the US targetted Saddam because he refused to sell Oil in dollars.

Of total World production, and American consumption, Iraq's contribution was quite small. Indeed at one point the World refused to buy Iraqui oil at all.

In general OPEC, the people who control Oil volumes, can esily deal with a dollar fall by reducing the quantity of Oil released thus raising the price of Oil. Cant they ?

With regard to China I seem to remember the US government getting quite upset when China tied the value of their currency to the dollar, thus negating any advantage to US business of a falling dollar.  Naughty Chinese !

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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/5/2006 6:31:44 AM   
MercilessMarcy


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Let's say we have a few years before China kills the golden goose (us).  They eventually are going to want to.  Why? Oil.   Thier industry is growing at an inconcievable rate .  They NEED more oil.  Think 10 industrial revolutions happening at once.  The fight in the mideast is certainly about securing pipelines, and yes, oil for dollars.   We are already dependent on cheap imported goods, that isn't going to change.     It's too expensive to manufacture here in the U.S. when imported goods are so cheap. Competition is fierce.

I agree we need to get out of personal debt as quickly as possible.   

I think it would be wise to become as energy indenpendent as possible.  Get off the grid if you can afford to.  But for most of us poor people,  invest in a solar panel or two each year.   If you live where it's windy, how about a wind generator?  

My rich relatives living in Atherton, CA  drilled a well in their back yard in the 70's.  They water their 1 acre, grow a garden and have beautiful landscaping.  Then they recently put solar film over 3/4 of the roof of their home.  Mind you, these are RICH people.  They travel to other countries several times a year.  Their reasoning: we live in a debtor nation, that means instability.  If  you can do anything to make yourself more independent, do it.

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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/5/2006 6:47:35 AM   
seeksfemslave


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Merciless...why is it not possible to develop another source of energy, most probably Hydrogen ?

If the Chinese have any sense, and I think they have , they will realise that it is in their own interests not to bring the US economy down, Dont forget they and Japan finance large chunks of it.

If that started to happen you could confidently expect.........WAR!

< Message edited by seeksfemslave -- 12/5/2006 6:48:23 AM >

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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/5/2006 7:19:54 AM   
Sinergy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: seeksfemslave

An interesting discussion. I didn't realise there were so many doom mongers in the US.
One point I would like some more info. on is the claim that the US targetted Saddam because he refused to sell Oil in dollars.



"The Best Democracy Money Can Buy" by Greg Palaste talks about it.  I do not have the book handy to give you a list of his source materials.

quote:



Of total World production, and American consumption, Iraq's contribution was quite small. Indeed at one point the World refused to buy Iraqui oil at all.



So now that the Saudis are running out of oil, and we cannot buy from Venezuala or Iran with US dollars, who do you suppose was sitting on some of the largest reserves of oil on the planet?

And I stated either here or on another thread the issue that the first 30% to 50% of oil in a pocket is easy to get to, after which it becomes increasingly more expensive to get the oil out of the ground.  Eventually, you hit a point where it costs more to get the oil out of the ground than you can sell the oil for.  Unless you cut production and drive the price of oil up.

Just me, could be wrong, but there you go.

Sinergy

_____________________________

"There is a fine line between clever and stupid"
David St. Hubbins "This Is Spinal Tap"

"Every so often you let a word or phrase out and you want to catch it and bring it back. You cant do that, it is gone, gone forever." J. Danforth Quayle


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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/5/2006 8:53:42 AM   
Lordandmaster


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NOW you're talking.  Of course, these are all things we could do as a nation, too--but the present administration hasn't shown much interest.

quote:

ORIGINAL: MercilessMarcy

I think it would be wise to become as energy indenpendent as possible.  Get off the grid if you can afford to.  But for most of us poor people,  invest in a solar panel or two each year.   If you live where it's windy, how about a wind generator?

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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/5/2006 1:30:13 PM   
Sinergy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: seeksfemslave

Merciless...why is it not possible to develop another source of energy, most probably Hydrogen ?



Hello A/all,

I am curious why you use terms like "Doom mongers" when people give you answers to questions you ask that reflect education and a sense of reality about the subject.  This sort of thing is a perfect example of why I ask people I am giving job interview questions like "How many gas stations are in California?"  The blase nature with which the question is asked reminds me of how Monkeyboy looked in all those speeches where he talked about things like gasoline, war in Iraq, etc., where he had little or no concept of how any of it worked. 

I am going to assume that the person posing this particular question has not actually sat down and thought about the complexity of the answer.  I am going to assume this is not a rhetorical question.

Hydrogen is not an energy source in the same way that petroleum or coal or wood are.  Pump up petroleum, heat it up and crack (catalytic reaction which breaks it into compounds of different densities, like gasoline, naptha, kerosene, tar, etc) it, drain off the various products which result.  The energy was already stored in the product by plants back in dinosaur time, and then heated and compressed by billions of tons of earth on top of it to make it a gooey mess of complex carbon compounds.

You make hydrogen by taking some substance with hydrogen atoms bonded to it, like water, and use energy to split the atoms apart making O2 and H2.  Accordingly, you need energy to make hydrogen.  Where do you suggest we find the source of energy to make hydrogen?

The three most obvious sources, in my mind, to make hydrogen are hydroelectric, geothermal, or wave action.  All of these are, while not technically renewable, a function of planetary geology and wont be going away any time soon.

Then you put it in your car, light it on fire in the presence of oxygen, and you end up with energy, some heat, and H2O.

It is not a strict energy exchange since you lose energy from friction, heat, etc.  In other words, you dont get out of it as much energy (to move your car, etc) as you put in to making it. 

So assuming you have an energy source, such as hydroelectric or geothermal or whatever, and you use it to break up water to make hydrogen.  Now you have a highly explosive / reactive gas which you can pressurize and/or liquify. 

The next step is to rebuild the energy infrastructure from the ground up in a way that will be relatively safe.  The gas has to be taken in trucks or trains or boats or whatever to the hydrogen station, where it needs to be stored in large tanks until you fill your tank.  Not to mention, since you are dealing with a hazardous gas, your fuel infrastructure will probably require trained technicians to dispense the fuel.

So my questions to you would be a)  How much would all of this cost and b) who do you suggest pays for it?

China is the country actively working to develop these things, and during the Republican control of Congress the general idea seemed to be to prevent any scientific research, educational funding, etc., which might impact this year's profit margin.  We went so far in the cold war because Democrats like Kennedy and Johnson promoted education and the furtherance of our scientific minds.  With the Republican's actively shooting down all these programs to build a brighter future for our country, we are quickly losing our technological and scientific edge on the planet.

Just me, could be wrong, but there you go.

Sinergy

< Message edited by Sinergy -- 12/5/2006 2:12:22 PM >


_____________________________

"There is a fine line between clever and stupid"
David St. Hubbins "This Is Spinal Tap"

"Every so often you let a word or phrase out and you want to catch it and bring it back. You cant do that, it is gone, gone forever." J. Danforth Quayle


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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/5/2006 4:05:04 PM   
MercilessMarcy


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A cheap and effective way to use wave energy has been made.  A high school student won a science award with his invention.  It's cheap, & available now.  I 've seen it on television news shows, Oprah, and Discovery.  BUT, like synergy points out, you need to collect it, have a distribution of it, and fight off special interest groups while you're pouring billions of dollars into doing that.  Even using it to power cities along the coast requires massive re-structuring.  Again, who's going to pay for it all?  You and I of course.  When? Well, when congressmen stop lining their pockets with special interest dollars...any guesses when that will be?

Energy independence is going to be an individual thing for some time to come.

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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/5/2006 4:06:29 PM   
MercilessMarcy


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oops, sorry for mis-spelling your name Sinergy

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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/5/2006 4:18:47 PM   
LTRsubNW


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quote:

ORIGINAL: subfever

quote:

ORIGINAL: LTRsubNW

Free trade agreements aren't bringing us trade deficits.

People continuing to buy stuff from countries who make stuff cheaper than we can, bring trade deficits.

(Stop buying the stuff and trade deficits disappear, just like magic)


Just stop buying the stuff, 'eh?

Go tell the millions of citizens who are living week-to-week (or are already on subsidy) that they should stop buying foreign-made goods from now on, and pay more for American-made goods so that we can make the trade deficit magically go away. 

Then get ready to duck...  


Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

One effectively says "The Govt. is at fault!!! If they hadn't done (pick your headline), we wouldn't have this trade deficit...those bastards"...

Then when someone explains why, in fact, trade deficits actually exist...that it's the American consumer buying too many things that others make cheaper, or that fewer people in even fewer countries are buying our stuff (hence, the word "trade"), so...since we can't seem to make products at similar prices as others do, ergo...we will sell fewer of those items...and since we can't seem to get off our heroin fix of buying Hibachis and lawnmowers manufactured in Chiao Jing....the next comment is (effectively):

"Yeah, sure...take away our cheaper Tupperware...you'll have riots in the streets!!!!"

Pick one.  (And in case you may need a helping hand on this, "both" isn't an option).

We can make the trade deficit disappear.  It's beyond any basic principle of simplicity;  If we make goods at prices others want to buy (our trade "income", and if enough of it, "surplus"), others will purchase them.  If we stop buying products manufactured elsewhere (our trade "outflow", depending on amounts, "deficit"), including materials and shipping at retail prices lower than we can manufacture them for in Sandusky Ohio, the trade deficit will invert.

That's how a trade deficit/surplus works.  Whichever one is higher (income {surplus}/outflow {deficit}) determines whether we have one or the other.

Toyota didn't get to be the 2nd largest car seller in the United States (Sept. 2006) because we finally felt sorry for what we did in Hiroshima.  They got there by selling products that were better than what American manufacturers had to offer for similar prices or lower (and they shipped them 3,800 miles in doing so).

How or why they're doing it is entirely immaterial.

When we finally sell more than we buy (or learn to buy less if we can't sell more), we'll have a surplus.  Until then, we'll have a deficit.

It ain't the governments fault.

Stop buying things we don't manufacture, or quit complaining that you aren't at fault.

Because you are.

(And by the way...I love my Toyota).

< Message edited by LTRsubNW -- 12/5/2006 5:05:13 PM >


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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/5/2006 4:28:05 PM   
UtopianRanger


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quote:

Yeah, if people think the dollar is low now, imagine how low it would go if China ever decides to sell its holdings.  But they have their own reasons to keep their currency cheap.

LaM.....   Last time I checked, China was / is in the process of dumping at least some of holdings in dollars in lieu of diversifying into gold. I think I made a post about this a month or two ago. 

The United States is a net foreign debtor owing between 4 – 5 trillion, the bulk of it to three different countries.  

Saudi Arabia  - One trillion  

China – One trillion 

Japan – One trillion  

But even more important is the fact that there is a gross total of over 13 trillion in US paper in the hands of foreigners. Now take into consideration that just in the last ten days the dollar has lost slightly over two percent of its value……so you multiply 13 trillion times 2 percent and there are a few folks out there that have lost quite a bit of money in the last ten days.  

My feeling is that we are going to see more and more diversify out of the dollar here shortly.






- R

< Message edited by UtopianRanger -- 12/5/2006 4:29:14 PM >


_____________________________

"If you are going to win any battle, you have to do one thing. You have to make the mind run the body. Never let the body tell the mind what to do... the body is never tired if the mind is not tired."

-General George S. Patton


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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/5/2006 4:43:30 PM   
MercilessMarcy


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OH CRAP!  I better buy some more organic, non-genetically engineered seeds for next year soon!  Before they go to $4 a seed!  Hmmm,  goods in hand worth more than $'s in hand.  

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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/5/2006 5:00:07 PM   
LTRsubNW


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MercilessMarcy

OH CRAP!  I better buy some more organic, non-genetically engineered seeds for next year soon!  Before they go to $4 a seed!  Hmmm,  goods in hand worth more than $'s in hand.  


Close, but no cigar;  Other currencies in hand are worth more than $ in hand.

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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/5/2006 5:33:08 PM   
Lordandmaster


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Or the rate could be shored up by bargain-hunters.  The dollar is going to rise or fall for its own reasons; I don't believe there's going to be irrational speculation in one direction or the other.

quote:

ORIGINAL: UtopianRanger

But even more important is the fact that there is a gross total of over 13 trillion in US paper in the hands of foreigners. Now take into consideration that just in the last ten days the dollar has lost slightly over two percent of its value……so you multiply 13 trillion times 2 percent and there are a few folks out there that have lost quite a bit of money in the last ten days.  

My feeling is that we are going to see more and more diversify out of the dollar here shortly.

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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/5/2006 6:12:20 PM   
UtopianRanger


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quote:


I agree with what you have written, UtopianRanger, but if you read books like "The Best Democracy Money Can Buy" and "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" it becomes fairly obvious why the US Government has done what it has done.


Oh… I agree with you, but that’s not what got us into trouble in the first place. Like I said initially, The dollar's perpetual state of devaluation is tied to two things : Manufacturing based-non-productivity {tied in with an utterly preposterous trade imbalance} and massive debt to foreign creditors {The US is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world} .  

Many of the folks reading these forums are younger than us, and a few are older. But you and I are the same age, so it’s easy for the both of us to travel back to our younger years and remember when we could go into the department stores as teenagers /kids and see that most of the tools, clothes, toys, hardware, paper goods, books, and even some of the electronics were mostly made here in America. Now almost none of the above mentioned is produced /manufactured in America.  

That and the fact this government is just completely out of control spending and spending, whether it’s on war, Halliburton, the Big Dig, or a Bridge to no where in the Great White hither land. They just keep spending and spending, borrowing and borrowing – There’s no end in sight, and it’s killing us.



quote:

Saddam Hussein, while not a particularly nice man, was not in anybodies cross hairs until he refused to enter into an agreement with the United States similar to the one we have with Saudi Arabia, to whit, a requirement that they sell their oil in US dollars.  So he got invaded and presumably if the country ever gets fixed by us, they will sell their oil for US dollars.  If we pull out and let somebody else fix it, I suspect it will be sold for Euros, which is one of the few relatively stable currencies on the planet at this point.  Say what you want about having resolve to rebuild Iraq, but the only reason Monkeyboy gives a flying whatever about that entire country is the fear that we would have to buy the oil for something that is not dollars.

The Saudis are who they are, but they do know that if they ever try to sell their oil for something other than US dollars, they will go the way of Saddam.

Chavez, in Venezuala, has been basically sitting on his oil, refusing to borrow money from the World Bank (which would make his country a debtor nation subject to having loans called in, etc), and refusing to sell his oil for US dollars.  So the media in the United States has now decided this popularly and democratically elected, and much beloved ruler is an evil man who must be overthrown.



I might have agreed with what you are saying here a few years ago…..but in light of what’s happening in Iraq, right now……the way we are getting are butt’s picked off, a few every day. And the fact that Hezbollah wupped ass on the Jews and destroyed seventy of the most formidable tanks on this planet with cold war, wire guided anti-tank missiles – No way  

I would tell you right now that our performance in Iraq over the last three months is directly related to much of the dollar’s recent fall over the last couple of weeks. The world is beginning to both notice and lose confidence in our ability to wage war and be effective at it……they are very aware we have no strategy. And better yet….. this super bad-ass technologically superior military image we might have erroneously built, has been largely reduced to the same profile we had after we left Saigon.  

Out citizenry is getting smarter all the time, and they’re also tired. I don’t believe the neocons can blow up another building or release small pox and blame it on Hugo Chavez or the Iranians and have us all go to war again. The people are tired and they don’t want to live in a perpetual state of war anymore – It’s ridiculous.  

Wait till all kids come home and they start to get sick and feel the ill effects from the massive amounts of depleted Uranium that our government bombarded Iraq with. When the truth comes out about DU…..hopefully even the dip shits will have enough sense to say no to more wars. I’m sorry, Sinergy, but I think we are losing our ability to force our will on others


quote:

In the United States, we no longer have a gold standard, we have an oil standard.  The ultimate goal of joining our currencies with Canada and Mexico is to increase the reserve money we can use to stabilize our economy.  I will use the loaf of bread analogy posted earlier to describe the problem Monkeyboy and his ilk are having with our currency.

If you have a loaf of bread as your standard, similar to gold or oil, and you print the $1.00 the loaf of bread costs.  Your $1.00 bill is worth exactly $1.00 and is tied to the value of the loaf of bread.  If you print $5.00 worth of money, your loaf of bread now costs $5.00 since the intrinsic value of the goods you can purchase with it remains stable. 

Lets say you print $2.00 worth of currency, and loan Joe $3.00 worth of credit.  Again, it now costs $5.00 to buy that loaf of bread since the standard worth holding up your currency (both loaned and printed) has remained the same.





Yes……our currency, the dollar {Now what’s known as a fiat currency}, once had a fixed parity relationship with something of tangible value to stabilize it, i.e. Gold, ala The Bretton Woods monetary system.  

This is what subfever and maybe one other here have always talked about……Before 1913 we had Sovereign, organic currency. Then perhaps the biggest coup de grace ever perpetuated on this nation came along : We were indoctrinated into what’s {bait} affectionately known as the Federal reserve system / Fractional lending practice, where money is virtually created out of thin air. It’s a pyramid / ponzi scheme that works on ‘’bubbles’’ where the inherent problem is what’s known as ‘’interest’’ that just keeps compounding and can never be paid back.





- R



PS - Don't know how Ya'll do it.....these long posts are draining
   

< Message edited by UtopianRanger -- 12/5/2006 6:13:06 PM >


_____________________________

"If you are going to win any battle, you have to do one thing. You have to make the mind run the body. Never let the body tell the mind what to do... the body is never tired if the mind is not tired."

-General George S. Patton


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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/5/2006 6:23:44 PM   
subfever


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quote:

ORIGINAL: LTRsubNW

quote:

ORIGINAL: subfever

quote:

ORIGINAL: LTRsubNW

Free trade agreements aren't bringing us trade deficits.

People continuing to buy stuff from countries who make stuff cheaper than we can, bring trade deficits.

(Stop buying the stuff and trade deficits disappear, just like magic)


Just stop buying the stuff, 'eh?

Go tell the millions of citizens who are living week-to-week (or are already on subsidy) that they should stop buying foreign-made goods from now on, and pay more for American-made goods so that we can make the trade deficit magically go away. 

Then get ready to duck...  


Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

One effectively says "The Govt. is at fault!!! If they hadn't done (pick your headline), we wouldn't have this trade deficit...those bastards"...


In my eyes, big business owns the government, therefore, big business is the government.

quote:

Then when someone explains why, in fact, trade deficits actually exist...that it's the American consumer buying too many things that others make cheaper, or that fewer people in even fewer countries are buying our stuff (hence, the word "trade"), so...since we can't seem to make products at similar prices as others do, ergo...we will sell fewer of those items...and since we can't seem to get off our heroin fix of buying Hibachis and lawnmowers manufactured in Chiao Jing....the next comment is (effectively):

"Yeah, sure...take away our cheaper Tupperware...you'll have riots in the streets!!!!"


Due to corporate greed, sanctioned by our bought-and-paid for government, there are growing numbers of Americans who no longer have the option to be selective in their buying habits. They're tapped out. Up to their eyeballs in debt, and basically living month-to-month.

For this reason, the market for cheap-labor goods made overseas will not vanish anytime soon; looking at matters from the demand side of the equation. 

Looking at matters from the supply side, I'll simply ask:

Can the US compete against $1.00 per day labor?  

Thanks for explaining the basic principles of trade deficits, for those who may have needed an explanation. However, I don't believe you have offered a viable solution. IMO... our country is now beyond the point of having the simplistic fix of just "not buying the stuff."  

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RE: Our Falling Currency - 12/5/2006 6:28:46 PM   
Sinergy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: UtopianRanger

I’m sorry, Sinergy, but I think we are losing our ability to force our will on others



I am uncertain what you are apologizing to me, UtopianRanger.

I have stated on other threads that our military was designed to take out and destroy standing armies of the Soviet Union, which worked surprisingly well when put against Hussein's armies.

Our military was never designed to occupy a hostile country.  We were shown this after 12+ years of misery in Vietnam.  Then a draft-dodging cretin who never bothered to learn anything that was not printed on a Jack Daniels bottle, a Schlitz can, or a toilet bowl he was puking in to decided to ignore the lessons of history.

We have a mobile, mechanized military machine.  If they are told to go drive 60 miles to the South East and kill everything there, they will do that more effectively than any fighting force in the history of the planet.  Standing around waiting for somebody to shoot old technology crap from the Salvation Army at them is a recipe for disaster.

I dont think anybody has clearly believed we had the ability to force our will on them.  What I think the rest of the world knows is that we have a military that will destroy them if they pick a fight with us.  I do think that the rest of the world is frightened that the United States citizenry gave the keys to the car to a drunken, uneducated, ill-tempered, obstreperous, and unintelligent lunatic who thinks God talks to him.

The parallels to the book "The Dead Zone" are frightening.

Just me, could be wrong, but there you go.

Sinergy

< Message edited by Sinergy -- 12/5/2006 6:30:24 PM >


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(in reply to UtopianRanger)
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