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Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 5:41:47 AM   
MistressNew


Posts: 112
Joined: 5/5/2007
Status: offline 		The word "insurmountable" is thrown around a lot these days, but ....

Gallup from Sept 2: 

Obama 50, McCain 43

CBS News from the same day:

Obama 48, McCain 40

I don't know about you guys, but I'm taking inauguration day off to watch President Obama's parade.

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 5:54:31 AM   
FatDomDaddy


Posts: 3183
Joined: 1/31/2004
Status: offline 		Gallup from 9/2 was 49-43 hon. That is 6% and a horrible number for Obama. If the primary phenomenon holds true, he'll need to up over 10% or maybe even 12% by November if he's even going to come close. But by all means, enjoy the day off anyway.  http://www.gallup.com/poll/109996/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx 

< Message edited by FatDomDaddy -- 9/4/2008 5:55:36 AM >

(in reply to MistressNew)
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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 6:01:16 AM   
MistressNew


Posts: 112
Joined: 5/5/2007
Status: offline 		It's strange to me that when Obama is ahead by 7%, it's horrible news for Obama.  When the polls are tight, it's bad news for Obama. 

I can hear it now:  "Barack Obama is being sworn in as president.  What good news for John McCain!"

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 6:14:39 AM   
FatDomDaddy


Posts: 3183
Joined: 1/31/2004
Status: offline 		New...

The science of polls includes the margin error usually in the 5% range.

Obama's Primary polling numbers proved far lower than the actual vote numbers.

The gallup's poll you touted was 49-43 That is 6% not 7% and it is a big difference in poll numbers.

That poll was very good news for the McCain camp. 

< Message edited by FatDomDaddy -- 9/4/2008 6:21:53 AM >

(in reply to MistressNew)
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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 6:16:42 AM   
kittinSol


Posts: 16926
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MistressNew

I don't know about you guys, but I'm taking inauguration day off to watch President Obama's parade.



Thinking of it too - been discussing it with a couple of collarme posters. Perhaps we could all meet up over in Washington :-) .

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 6:17:45 AM   
subrob1967


Posts: 4591
Joined: 9/13/2004
Status: offline 		With the atrocious job Bush has done, and the fact that McMaverick is the republican's answer, Obama should have been up by 20+ points. The Repubs have handed the Dems an election on a silver platter.

Obama may be connecting with the more liberal constituancy, but thats it.

My prediction is Dem's pick up more seats in the house & senate, but can't close the deal on the Presidency. Repub administration with a Dem legislature

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 6:21:07 AM   
kittinSol


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quote:

ORIGINAL: subrob1967

With the atrocious job Bush has done, and the fact that McMaverick is the republican's answer



He has? He is?

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 6:22:16 AM   
Sanity


Posts: 22039
Joined: 6/14/2006
From: Nampa, Idaho USA
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It's horrible news for him because historically, candidates have always gotten far larger bumps in the polls than that after their conventions.

Obama's really in trouble, his message of hope and change is growing old because he hasn't put any meat on those bones. It's all empty rhetoric!


quote:

ORIGINAL: MistressNew

It's strange to me that when Obama is ahead by 7%, it's horrible news for Obama.  When the polls are tight, it's bad news for Obama. 

I can hear it now:  "Barack Obama is being sworn in as president.  What good news for John McCain!"



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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 6:28:55 AM   
MistressNew


Posts: 112
Joined: 5/5/2007
Status: offline 		I don't really understand gambling.  Can somebody explain what these odds mean and how they're bad news for Obama?

http://www.sportsbook.com/livesports/indexmember.php
Obama- -200
McCain- +150



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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 6:35:27 AM   
DarkSteven


Posts: 28072
Joined: 5/2/2008
Status: offline 		I can't predict this election.  It's too weird.

Conventional wisdom dictates that the Dem have a strong lead about now, and that it get chipped away up till the election.  Bush vs Dukakis is the classic example.

In this election, Obama should be up by 20 points due to Bush's ineptitude and low numbers, and the fact that McCain still hasn't found a message.

The huge monkey wrench in all of this is likelihood to vote.  If a polled voter supports McCain or Obama, he's nothing but a statistical nuisance if he doesn't vote.  McCain had only lukewarm support from his party and I anticipated low turnout from Republicans until the Palin pick, which seems to have energized the GOP.  Obama's organizational muscle gives him a good edge here.

I think the election's about to go negative.  Biden will be an effective attack god for the Dems while Obama stays above the fray, but I can't see either Palin or McCain being a good negative campaigner.

IMO the tenor of both Obama's and McCain's campaigns reflects an assumed Obama lead.


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The small-breasted ones want larger breasts. The large-breasted ones want smaller ones. The straight-haired ones curl their hair, and the curly-haired ones straighten theirs...

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(in reply to Sanity)
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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 6:35:27 AM   
kittinSol


Posts: 16926
Status: offline 		I just want to be wary of a few things: to not underestimate the power of bigotry and the force of parochial feelings of 'belonging', and to remember that the Reps have a formidable PR machine. They can still manage to make their lack of message look like a strength, and a divided party look like the image of unity.

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 7:04:12 AM   
TheHeretic


Posts: 19100
Joined: 3/25/2007
From: California, USA
Status: offline 		        What???  A candidate is up a few points, right after the convention???  This is unheard of! 

     There is only one poll that matters.  We'll get those results on November 5.

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 7:09:15 AM   
LaTigresse


Posts: 26123
Joined: 1/15/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: FatDomDaddy

Gallup from 9/2 was 49-43 hon. That is 6% and a horrible number for Obama. If the primary phenomenon holds true, he'll need to up over 10% or maybe even 12% by November if he's even going to come close. But by all means, enjoy the day off anyway.  http://www.gallup.com/poll/109996/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx 


Oh hon, y'all just keep dog paddling as fast as you can.

It is entertaining.

On the serious side, I hear that Lynn and Jamielynn Spears sent the pregnant teenage daughter $60 worth of burp clothes as a baby gift.


_____________________________

My twisted, self deprecating, sense of humour, finds alot to laugh about, in your lack of one!

Just because you are well educated, articulate, and can use big, fancy words, properly........does not mean you are right!

(in reply to FatDomDaddy)
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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 7:13:40 AM   
thishereboi


Posts: 14463
Joined: 6/19/2008
Status: offline 		burp clothes? I have never heard that term, What are they?

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 7:36:16 AM   
LaTigresse


Posts: 26123
Joined: 1/15/2006
Status: offline 		Google them and you will be enlightened. Baby puke cloths. In that family I am guessing there might be alot of bitter pills to swallow and sour stomachs. The cloths will be needed.

_____________________________

My twisted, self deprecating, sense of humour, finds alot to laugh about, in your lack of one!

Just because you are well educated, articulate, and can use big, fancy words, properly........does not mean you are right!

(in reply to thishereboi)
Profile   Post #: 15
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 7:39:20 AM   
thishereboi


Posts: 14463
Joined: 6/19/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: LaTigresse

Google them and you will be enlightened. Baby puke cloths. In that family I am guessing there might be alot of bitter pills to swallow and sour stomachs. The cloths will be needed.


Oh ok, I know what your talking about. Not sure why her family would be any different though.

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 7:42:04 AM   
corysub


Posts: 1492
Joined: 1/1/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MistressNew

The word "insurmountable" is thrown around a lot these days, but ....

Gallup from Sept 2: 

Obama 50, McCain 43

CBS News from the same day:

Obama 48, McCain 40

I don't know about you guys, but I'm taking inauguration day off to watch President Obama's parade.




I would not give up my day job just yet to watch the Obama parade.  Just possibly his parade
might be held in Chicago, while McCain/Palin are on the Capital steps.

Watch the polls over the next two weeks...not two days after the DNC show...with the styrofoam
pillars as Sarah said so comically.

(in reply to MistressNew)
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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 8:15:21 AM   
slvemike4u


Posts: 17896
Joined: 1/15/2008
From: United States
Status: offline 		I am planning to see my first Inaugral,and will take my son to hear it.Hope Obama gives an especially good speech on this historic occasion.
In Addittion I hope to meet some of my fellow posters while there....

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 8:35:09 AM   
cyberdude611


Posts: 2596
Joined: 5/7/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MistressNew

The word "insurmountable" is thrown around a lot these days, but ....

Gallup from Sept 2: 

Obama 50, McCain 43

CBS News from the same day:

Obama 48, McCain 40

I don't know about you guys, but I'm taking inauguration day off to watch President Obama's parade.




Um.... you might want to check the numbers again....
Rasmussen shows the race at 48% Obama to 45% McCain (Likely voters)
Gallup shows the race at 49% Obama to 43% McCain. (Registered voters)

Democrats also risk a backlash....
51% of voters according to Rasmussen say the media is intentionally trying to hurt Sarah Palin and only 35% believe the media coverage is fair.

Only 78% of voters said they are sure of who they are voting for.

These numbers are only through Monday. They do not include the Lieberman, Thompson, Rudy, or Palin speeches.

Keep in mind that in 1988 on Labor Day....Dukakis was leading Bush 55% to 38%. So just because Obama has close to 50% now does not mean anything at all.

< Message edited by cyberdude611 -- 9/4/2008 8:39:36 AM >

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 9:28:55 AM   
SilverMark


Posts: 3457
Joined: 5/9/2007
Status: offline 		"51% of voters according to Rasmussen say the media is intentionally trying to hurt Sarah Palin and only 35% believe the media coverage is fair." I keep reading this but have yet to see anything scathing or out of the normal realm of reporting. Am I missing something? If I am, where are all the negative press? The facts of the trooper thing...reads like a legitimate investigation. Her 17 year old daughter is pregnant....( My own daughter gave birth to My Grand Son out of wedlock at 22 yrs.old but , had the same effect on My family as it would any)...not that I care about that but, the Campaign released the information, she was once for earmarks and now is against them. She liked the bridge...now she dosen't....She's a politician they all move on issues(not a flip flop from a Republican?...according to some only Democrats do that)....Now, when she is on the front page of the Inquirer saying she once had Bigfoots lovechild....I'd say it is outrageous behavior, although I dare say, they have not been known to report many facts.

< Message edited by SilverMark -- 9/4/2008 9:30:25 AM >

(in reply to cyberdude611)
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