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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 1:38:30 PM   
cyberdude611


Posts: 2596
Joined: 5/7/2006
Status: offline 		Rusmessen said not to put any stock into polls until next Tuesday but he said the trend in the early data right now is that Obama's bounce is finished and McCain's bounce has started. So the next several polls will likely show McCain starting to catch up.

Numbers in also show Palin attracted 4 million more women viewers than Obama did. So women were obviously interested in what she had to say last night. Which is consistant to the polling data that suggests about a 1/4th of women supporting Clinton are right now undecided voters.

(in reply to rulemylife)
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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 1:39:31 PM   
dcnovice


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Anyone have links to the major polling sites?

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 1:42:07 PM   
Thadius


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Joined: 10/11/2005
Status: offline 		Real clear politics posts alot of the national polls.

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 1:42:46 PM   
cyberdude611


Posts: 2596
Joined: 5/7/2006
Status: offline 		http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 1:43:38 PM   
dcnovice


Posts: 37282
Joined: 8/2/2006
Status: offline 		Thanks, Thadius!

In 2004, I had a handful of great sites bookmarked, but I have a newish computer now.

eta:

Thanks to CD too!

< Message edited by dcnovice -- 9/4/2008 1:45:00 PM >

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 1:48:53 PM   
rulemylife


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DS4DUMMIES

quote:

ORIGINAL: rulemylife

quote:

ORIGINAL: Thadius

Those small bouncers, because I am not sure if you are looking at actual lead after the convention, were also the latter conventions.

You should also look at the '96 election.  Clinton was down by 7 going into his later convention, and wound up with a lead that he never surrendered after.

If this is deadlocked going into Oct. I would dare say that Obama is going back to the senate.  There is far too much ammo yet to be fired, and each time his leads disipate, the folks get become more immune to his charm as they wonder why he isn't walking away with the election.


So, if I understand right, he's winning............... but not by enough................. and when voters see he is not winning by enough they will abandon him and he will lose. 

Interesting theory.


I think the idea is, that his lackluster performance will cost him voters that are currently undecided, as they see his lack of an overwhelming rise as being indicative of weakness - perhaps enough weakness that people will think that maybe they should not vote for him either.


Except that not eveyone agrees it is lackluster.  From what I've read the typical "bounce" is just about exactly what he received.  Whether he should have done better because of Bush's poor performance is arguable, but interesting to see that Republicans are using the argument, considering it is further discrediting Bush's policies.  Most of which McCain has promised to continue. 

I sincerely hope, though, that regardless of the election's outcome, undecided voters are not going to base their decision on his popularity at the time and follow along like sheep.  For either candidate.

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 1:55:31 PM   
Thadius


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quote:

ORIGINAL: rulemylife

quote:

ORIGINAL: Thadius

Those small bouncers, because I am not sure if you are looking at actual lead after the convention, were also the latter conventions.

You should also look at the '96 election.  Clinton was down by 7 going into his later convention, and wound up with a lead that he never surrendered after.

If this is deadlocked going into Oct. I would dare say that Obama is going back to the senate.  There is far too much ammo yet to be fired, and each time his leads disipate, the folks get become more immune to his charm as they wonder why he isn't walking away with the election.


So, if I understand right, he's winning............... but not by enough................. and when voters see he is not winning by enough they will abandon him and he will lose. 

Interesting theory.


No, my theory is based on:

1. A convention bounce is traditionally around the 10 point mark.  Both campaigns will get a bounce from their campaigns. Obama's was 6-8 points (depending on the poll one looks at).

2. Obama is polling considerably lower than Dems nationally, therefore one must wonder what is causing this.

3. History shows that Dem numbers are inflated in polls compared to actual turn out in Nov, and that Reps poll lower than actual turnout.

4. The Bradley effect suggests that when whites are polled about a black candidate, they lie. (which is a sad statement about society).

5. Even some of the most popular Dem Presidents have seen this deflation,  Clinton was leading by 20 points at this point, and only realized a 7 point win.

6. Everytime Obama loses a lead, folks ask themselves what is going on, and then it is harder to inspire them to actually turn out. (I am referring to the middle of the road folks here, not the die hard Dems).

Just my opinions, based on historical data.

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 2:09:08 PM   
BitaTruble


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Thadius

No, my theory is based on:

1. A convention bounce is traditionally around the 10 point mark.  Both campaigns will get a bounce from their campaigns. Obama's was 6-8 points (depending on the poll one looks at).

2. Obama is polling considerably lower than Dems nationally, therefore one must wonder what is causing this.

3. History shows that Dem numbers are inflated in polls compared to actual turn out in Nov, and that Reps poll lower than actual turnout.

4. The Bradley effect suggests that when whites are polled about a black candidate, they lie. (which is a sad statement about society).

5. Even some of the most popular Dem Presidents have seen this deflation,  Clinton was leading by 20 points at this point, and only realized a 7 point win.

6. Everytime Obama loses a lead, folks ask themselves what is going on, and then it is harder to inspire them to actually turn out. (I am referring to the middle of the road folks here, not the die hard Dems).

Just my opinions, based on historical data.


A very considered opinion, Thadius, but, would you agree that this is an election unlike any other in the history of our government and as such, historical data may not have the same sort of meaning it might otherwise have had?

October is going to be so much fun.. politics AND Halloween.. I can't wait.

edited to take out excess quotes!!

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 2:09:57 PM   
chickpea


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Status: offline 		Obama still leads even after this year's first-ever Republican attempts to Hijack ALL THE ATTENTION AWAY from Obama and the Democratic National Convention. 

Shows that the American public is smarter than the Republican's old recycled tactics to hijack the country for their own selfish purposes.  Greed is fueling all the Republican efforts in this election.  When they ship jobs overseas, they avoid business taxes, so they are encouraged to pad their pockets more at the expense of normal working America (which Palin is BEING USED FOR to appeal to those folks... in the Trojan Horse manner...). 

Just as Bush is borrowing record amounts of money from China to senselessly ship American troops overseas to die (depleting our economic world power standing, depleting our human resources, fracturing our families, etc..) in order to pad his pocket as far as control of Oil is concerned, so will the Republicans continue to plunder this country in order to pad their pockets.

The Republicans enjoy a huge success (despite the polls showing Obama ahead), because the only thing people are talking about on T.V. is whether an inexperienced, unknown can give a speech to a national audience.  Kind of a ridiculous focus, and the perfect distraction for Republicans to, once again, hijack the White House and use the power of the oval office for their own gain.  And of course, an innocent (relatively, maybe) woman, is BEING USED for their own shelfish schemes.  God, not only bless American, but save it too! 

< Message edited by chickpea -- 9/4/2008 2:11:03 PM >

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Congrats to both In the end it was win-win. Now let's get to work http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/05/john-mccain-concedes-election http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/17/transition.wrap/index.html

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 2:19:29 PM   
Thadius


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Status: offline 		Celeste,

This election is breaking alot of traditional stereotypes, but it is following many others.  It is hard to judge how things are going to play out.  For instance this is the first time in quite awhile that we haven't had an incumbant pres or vp running.  The history making tickets, also adds quite a bit into the realm of speculation.  One must also add in the on going and potential flare ups on the world stage, the recent Russian and Korean things coming to the front of my mind.

I find it hard to believe that the populace is going to go against the one historical fact, that nobody has ever been elected to the oval office without at least a governor on the ticket.  Then add in the other historical numbers, and one must seriously question whether Obama is going to win.  I am not saying he won't, I am just suggesting that everything I have been taught, read, or been able to find says it is highly unlikely.

For me this is going to be a great election to follow, and I may even focus my dissertation on it.  As this is a poly sci guy's dream.

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 2:20:46 PM   
FatDomDaddy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MistressNew
Now, anybody care to speculate, if these polls are so worthless and everything is bad for Obama, why gamblers are giving McCain such bad odds at winning while Obama is their clear favorite?  Does Vegas enjoy losing money?  Is that the problem?


Odds!

Well now New... I can talk odds with you!

The have nothing to do with Vegas (which sets Odds in this country) or any other gambling mecca that sets them losing money. For this explanation, I just use Vegas.but odds are set solely for the purpose of breaking even. The easiest was to show this is by using American Football and their point spread system. The points are set based on how many it will take for a said gambler to bet the underdog against the favorite and vice-versa, so that the same amount of money is bet against both teams. Vegas makes money on the juice (a cashing fee) which is paid by the bet winner.

This Sunday, New England is a 16.5 points favorite over Kansas City but no matter who wins, Vegas makes money.

Now straight odds (not be confused with para-mutual odd used in horse racing but that's another thread) like being used in Vegas for your purposes are set in similar fashion. The odds makers want the novice to average but regular betting gamblers to bet equal amounts of money on both sides. gamblers are not societies smartest people, nor are the a reliable voting block. These gambles tend to bet on hunches and what they hear or with supposed knowledge that tends to be false. This is how Vegas makes it's billions and billions. It is the act of gambling that makes the money, not the winning or losing. Vegas never loses. Vegas always wins.

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 2:54:17 PM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: dcnovice

<fast reply>

Anyone have links to the major polling sites?

Gallup.com has their daily tracking on the front page with a link to the complete data just by clicking the numbers.

270towin.com aggregates a lot of polls and tracks them by electoral votes so you can actually see what the real race looks like, hint it isn't anywhere near as rosy for the GOP as folks around here claim. It also has an interactive map that lets you see what new poll numbers mean even before they get them added.

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 2:57:26 PM   
dcnovice


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Joined: 8/2/2006
Status: offline 		Thanks, DK!

_____________________________

No matter how cynical you become,
it's never enough to keep up.

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INTELLIGENT LIFE IN THE UNIVERSE

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 8:24:55 PM   
TheHeretic


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DS4DUMMIES

quote:

ORIGINAL: rulemylife

So, if I understand right, he's winning............... but not by enough................. and when voters see he is not winning by enough they will abandon him and he will lose. 

Interesting theory.


I think the idea is, that his lackluster performance will cost him voters that are currently undecided, as they see his lack of an overwhelming rise as being indicative of weakness - perhaps enough weakness that people will think that maybe they should not vote for him either.



           It's more than that, Dumm.  It goes to motivation, and the lowest common denominator vote.  When the sheeple are unsure of a candidate they will look to the rest of the herd.  There is a bandwagon effect, as people want to be on the winning side.  Numbers in the middle won't do that.  Numbers in the middle don't get swing voters on board and excited.  Worse, numbers in the middle don't sustain the energy of the locked-in support.  They mean doubt, and doubt is McCain's friend when it comes to how the middle votes.

       

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 8:37:20 PM   
Sanity


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quote:


Poll: Democratic bounce gone, race tied



A poll released today by CBS News reports that Barack Obama's post-Democratic convention bounce has been erased — and that for the first time, John McCain has drawn even with his Democratic opponent in the network's poll.

Only hours before McCain accepts his party's nomination in what will likely be the most-viewed moment thus far of his presidential bid, the race is knotted at 42 percent apiece, with 12 percent of voters stating that they are undecided, according to CBS. Obama was ahead 48 percent to 40 percent by CBS’ measure following the Democratic convention.


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13168.html


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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 8:39:24 PM   
tychtyp


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Status: offline 		Polls are garbage. They have little predictive power; the average American voter is just too stupid and indecisive to intelligently come to a position and stick with it.

The best places to glean information are the political prediction markets, which generally are far more accurate than pollsters and pundits. Intrade has Obama's chances at becoming president at 60%, McCain's chances at 40%.

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 9:22:57 PM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: chickpea

... after this year's first-ever Republican attempts to Hijack ALL THE ATTENTION AWAY from Obama and the Democratic National Convention. 


... and quite a successful hijack, too.

Firm

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 10:37:55 PM   
Noah


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DS4DUMMIES

I think the idea is, that his lackluster performance will cost him voters that are currently undecided, as they see his lack of an overwhelming rise as being indicative of weakness - perhaps enough weakness that people will think that maybe they should not vote for him either.


Okay. So some black guy no one had ever heard of four years ago beats the Clinton Machine on it's home turf. He then contests a highly experienced, well-connected, <<cough>> war hero <<cough cough>> who for years has called the Press "his base". He-Of-Deeply-UnPresidential-Color leads this guy  in national and electoral polls for months at a time while registering record numbers of new voters and collecting donations from record numbers of contributors, despite being up against Karl Rove's Politics of Fear and Division ninjas.

And this lacks luster?

Hmmm.

Here's one safe bet: if tomorrow morning Barack Hussein Obama walks on water, the choirs of Right Blogistan and several posters here will all sing in unison about how Mr.Uppity has proven once again that Liberals can't swim.





< Message edited by Noah -- 9/4/2008 10:48:00 PM >

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 11:34:19 PM   
cyberdude611


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Status: offline 		Here are some interesting poll numbers....Survey USA says 48% of voters think John McCain will win the election compared to 45% for Obama.

60% would give a grade of "A" to Sarah Palin's speech. Basically the only people who thought it was bad were far-left liberals. Even moderate liberals thought it was at least pretty good.

Interesting also was a question of who do you think the media favors to win the election? 54% said Barack Obama, and only 8% said McCain. Yes....that's right...only 8% thinks the media is favoring John McCain. So the vast majority believes the media has a bias in favor of Obama.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=36ee8fde-58bf-4027-a75b-b29d86b66b92

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Profile   Post #: 59
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/5/2008 12:08:14 AM   
Celeres


Posts: 166
Joined: 3/9/2008
Status: offline 		All I gotta say is that Polls are just a guide, if anything. It isn't concrete. If Polls really are the "be all and end all" then we don't even need to have an election. Polls are skewed in the manner that questions are asked. So, I for one will listen to polls but I won't be ready to declare a winner quite yet. And as for the Sept 2 polls, it doesn't include Palin's speech nor McCain's. We won't hear/see those polls until middle of next week at best.

Just a thought is all.

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