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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/5/2008 7:54:32 AM   
gina0055


Posts: 111
Joined: 11/17/2007
Status: offline 		Getting back to the polls, these numbers have changed quite drastically in the last couple of days.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/



Obama 08!

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/5/2008 7:55:19 AM   
servantforuse


Posts: 6363
Joined: 3/8/2006
Status: offline 		Opening a huge lead??? The latest Rasmussen poll out just this morning has Obama with 46%, McCain at 45%.. As explained here before a dead heat is not good for the democrats..

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/5/2008 8:00:51 AM   
gina0055


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quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

Opening a huge lead??? The latest Rasmussen poll out just this morning has Obama with 46%, McCain at 45%.. As explained here before a dead heat is not good for the democrats..


Ooops, and then there's this:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/


Seems like quite a lead to me.

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Profile   Post #: 83
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/5/2008 8:17:04 AM   
Thadius


Posts: 5091
Joined: 10/11/2005
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quote:

ORIGINAL: gina0055

quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

Opening a huge lead??? The latest Rasmussen poll out just this morning has Obama with 46%, McCain at 45%.. As explained here before a dead heat is not good for the democrats..


Ooops, and then there's this:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/


Seems like quite a lead to me.


What polls are those numbers based on?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

And the first time this election cycle that this has occured...
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/04/opinion/polls/main4416798.shtml
quote:

CBS) The presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain is now even at 42 percent, according to a new CBS News poll conducted Monday-Wednesday of this week. Twelve percent are undecided according to the poll, and one percent said they wouldn't vote.

This is in contrast to a poll conducted last weekend, where the Obama-Biden ticket led McCain-Palin by eight points, 48 percent to 40 percent.





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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/5/2008 8:34:32 AM   
SilverMark


Posts: 3457
Joined: 5/9/2007
Status: offline 		Gallup still has them remarkably consistant 49%  Obama 42% McCain on the daily tracking polls they do. Give it 10 days or so, I am not so sure they traditional bumps for either party is going to exist. Ramussen's has Obama back over McCain48-46 Zogby 47-45 McCain over Obama but still shows Obama higher in the electoral college than either of the other 2. All a bit confusing?????

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Profile   Post #: 85
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/5/2008 8:47:16 AM   
Thadius


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quote:

ORIGINAL: SilverMark

Gallup still has them remarkably consistant 49%  Obama 42% McCain on the daily tracking polls they do. Give it 10 days or so, I am not so sure they traditional bumps for either party is going to exist. Ramussen's has Obama back over McCain48-46 Zogby 47-45 McCain over Obama but still shows Obama higher in the electoral college than either of the other 2. All a bit confusing?????


The easiest way to compare this is to look at this one...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
Then look at the lead in Colorado, it's at  +0.4 for Obama, as of right now.  Not even Clinton carried Colorado in '96. I am pretty sure it is going to flip into the red, now that the conventions are over.  That 9 electoral votes swings the outlook of the map quite a bit.

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Profile   Post #: 86
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/5/2008 8:51:12 AM   
cyberdude611


Posts: 2596
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quote:

ORIGINAL: gina0055

quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

Opening a huge lead??? The latest Rasmussen poll out just this morning has Obama with 46%, McCain at 45%.. As explained here before a dead heat is not good for the democrats..


Ooops, and then there's this:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/


Seems like quite a lead to me.


That's a liberal site. They also had Kerry winning in 2004 when.....obviously he didnt.

(in reply to gina0055)
Profile   Post #: 87
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/5/2008 9:03:09 AM   
cyberdude611


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quote:

ORIGINAL: SilverMark

Gallup still has them remarkably consistant 49%  Obama 42% McCain on the daily tracking polls they do. Give it 10 days or so, I am not so sure they traditional bumps for either party is going to exist. Ramussen's has Obama back over McCain48-46 Zogby 47-45 McCain over Obama but still shows Obama higher in the electoral college than either of the other 2. All a bit confusing?????


Gallup wont come out until later today. Survey USA and Zogby I believe show a McCain lead. Rasmussen shows a 2 pt Obama lead. And CBS shows a tie.

But keep in mind the methodologies are different. Gallup for example polls registered voters while Rasmussen polls likely voters. Typically the polls that show registered voters lean democratic because more people are registered Democrats than registered Republicans. So the numbers skew a bit to the Democrat side even though it may not be accurate.

Scott Rasmussen was on TV yesturday and accurate numbers wont really come out until after next Tuesday because daily tracking polls have rolling averages. This means they poll 1,000 people every day and average a 3-day period. So right now, today, only 1/3rd of the respondants in that poll were polled after Palin made her speech and none were polled that heard McCain's speech. So this is why there is a delayed bounce and why we need to wait until Tuesday for the numbers to catch up.

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Profile   Post #: 88
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/5/2008 10:19:16 AM   
DomKen


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From: Chicago, IL
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quote:

ORIGINAL: ShieldWolf

Thanks for the link  Ken, but the states they put in play, well some of them just likely won't be. I hardly believe that we can't get any closer to an educated guess than to have 139 electoral votes up for grabs. Of course, if one side or the other has a major gaffe then anything is possible. I would recommend the electoral maps over at realclearpolitics.com and the analysis of Jay Cost who is a statistician with uncanny insight into what the polls mean and how to breakdown the battleground states. Yes he is conservative but doesn't let that taint his mathematical analysis.

270towin, like I said up above, aggregates state by state polling data. According to the site primarily Rasmussen, surveyUSA and Quinnipiac College. All very reputable polling organizations.

The realclearpolitics maps are functionally the same. A quick glance shows the RCP map giving MN and PA to Obama. Looking over the polling that is based on I disagree with their decision in those cases as the lead is still very close the margin of error of the polls.

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Profile   Post #: 89
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/5/2008 10:25:27 AM   
Thadius


Posts: 5091
Joined: 10/11/2005
Status: offline 		Todays Gallup shows another 3 point slide for Obama... This is the first poll to include one night of Palin's speech.

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Profile   Post #: 90
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/5/2008 10:38:58 AM   
Sanity


Posts: 22039
Joined: 6/14/2006
From: Nampa, Idaho USA
Status: offline 		Here's something related to this topic

quote:

McCain TV Ratings Beat Obama in Preliminary Numbers



McCain was speaking during the NFL season opener, too.

I wonder what this means, if anything?





< Message edited by Sanity -- 9/5/2008 10:47:53 AM >

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Profile   Post #: 91
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/5/2008 12:22:07 PM   
ShieldWolf


Posts: 55
Joined: 7/15/2005
Status: offline 		I think Obama likely has enough of a lead in those two states to carry them. I don't expect McCain to make up ground there. NC will go for McCain as will MO and FL in the end. CO, VA and NH are just too close to call and with two likely Democratic pickups in the Senate there Obama has something of an argument for coattails.

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/5/2008 12:28:16 PM   
ShieldWolf


Posts: 55
Joined: 7/15/2005
Status: offline 		The most significant thing I saw this morning was the ground McCain made up in OH and MI. Would still be surprised to see Obama lose MI but who knows.

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Profile   Post #: 93
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/5/2008 1:08:55 PM   
SilverMark


Posts: 3457
Joined: 5/9/2007
Status: offline 		Love the Real Clear Politics sight...thanks Thadius!

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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/5/2008 4:02:14 PM   
thishereboi


Posts: 14463
Joined: 6/19/2008
Status: offline 		I'm not fighting for anything, just reading the forums and laughing a lot.

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Profile   Post #: 95
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/5/2008 4:05:37 PM   
thishereboi


Posts: 14463
Joined: 6/19/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: gina0055

Getting back to the polls, these numbers have changed quite drastically in the last couple of days.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/



Obama 08!


Oh yea...the polls...and they are off.......

Anyone else think this would be more fun with a soundtrack from a horse race playing in the background?

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Profile   Post #: 96
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/5/2008 4:12:58 PM   
cyberdude611


Posts: 2596
Joined: 5/7/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: ShieldWolf

The most significant thing I saw this morning was the ground McCain made up in OH and MI. Would still be surprised to see Obama lose MI but who knows.


It's too early to tell... Plus the debates are coming up and that can change things around as well...

(in reply to ShieldWolf)
Profile   Post #: 97
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/6/2008 11:01:03 AM   
Thadius


Posts: 5091
Joined: 10/11/2005
Status: offline 		Tick tick tick... another 2 points gone in today's Gallup...  It is now a statistical tie.  Tuesday's numbers are not looking good for Sen. Obama if this trend continues...

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When the character of a man is not clear to you, look at his friends." ~ Japanese Proverb

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Profile   Post #: 98
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/6/2008 11:21:11 AM   
Thadius


Posts: 5091
Joined: 10/11/2005
Status: offline 		Hmmm... RCP hasn't updated with the new Rasmussen data... it also shows a couple more points lost for Obama... it is not a rolling average including only post speech numbers yet (it still includes time from prior to the 2 speeches). Obama has a 1 point lead, which is a statistical tie.

 

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When the character of a man is not clear to you, look at his friends." ~ Japanese Proverb

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Profile   Post #: 99
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/6/2008 2:12:03 PM   
PeacefreakinCO


Posts: 1
Joined: 9/5/2008
Status: offline 		Bless you MistressNew,
   I was encouraged by your comment on the presidential pokls, Ma'am.
It seems to me, that only, greedy, warmongers, and the very weathy, want
McCain to win... the upper class, and some Religious conservatives, who
seek a very real "Armegeddon". They all seem to be very narrowminded,
Apocalyptic, foecasters of doom !!!

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Profile   Post #: 100
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