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RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 9:45:36 AM   
bipolarber


Posts: 2792
Joined: 9/25/2004
Status: offline 		The problem with these polls, overall, is that they are polls of likely voters. i.e. folks who have voted in past elections. What none of them are taking into account are the rising tide of NEW voters, of college students who see the writing on the wall about the draft  should McCain wins, the increased numbers of african american voters in the south, and just the general number os people who didn't vote before, but who have absolutely had it with the growing Bush fuckups.

Sure, read the polls... then discard them. Most likely, they're off base to begin with. At best, you might get some fairly accurate opinions about proposed policies.... but that's about it.

(in reply to SilverMark)
Profile   Post #: 21
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 9:54:12 AM   
cyberdude611


Posts: 2596
Joined: 5/7/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SilverMark

"51% of voters according to Rasmussen say the media is intentionally trying to hurt Sarah Palin and only 35% believe the media coverage is fair." I keep reading this but have yet to see anything scathing or out of the normal realm of reporting. Am I missing something? If I am, where are all the negative press? The facts of the trooper thing...reads like a legitimate investigation. Her 17 year old daughter is pregnant....( My own daughter gave birth to My Grand Son out of wedlock at 22 yrs.old but , had the same effect on My family as it would any)...not that I care about that but, the Campaign released the information, she was once for earmarks and now is against them. She liked the bridge...now she dosen't....She's a politician they all move on issues(not a flip flop from a Republican?...according to some only Democrats do that)....Now, when she is on the front page of the Inquirer saying she once had Bigfoots lovechild....I'd say it is outrageous behavior, although I dare say, they have not been known to report many facts.


Too much, too fast is one thing.....when that happends (plus a few of the stories were false) it gives the perception of a smear and soon people begin to question the truth of every story that comes out.

Also some outlets went beyond the threshold for most people. Putting 3 stories just about Palin's daughter on the front page of the New York Times (Tuesday's edition) was excessive. And I believe if you took a poll most would consider Bristol's pregnancy to be a private matter and not relevant to the campaign (as both Obama and Biden have clearly stated).

I think also there have been sexist attacks by the media. Many pundits started questioning about how she would balance her time between family and being the Vice President. Most view that as a sexist arguement.

After this pick was announced on Friday it seemed the media just went nuts and ran every story they could find without researching the facts. The American people can see that, they dont think it is fair, and that's why they have a negative view of the media right now.

(in reply to SilverMark)
Profile   Post #: 22
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 10:01:36 AM   
popeye1250


Posts: 18104
Joined: 1/27/2006
From: New Hampshire
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MistressNew

The word "insurmountable" is thrown around a lot these days, but ....

Gallup from Sept 2: 

Obama 50, McCain 43

CBS News from the same day:

Obama 48, McCain 40

I don't know about you guys, but I'm taking inauguration day off to watch President Obama's parade.




Can we quote you on that?

_____________________________

"But Your Honor, this is not a Jury of my Peers, these people are all decent, honest, law-abiding citizens!"

(in reply to MistressNew)
Profile   Post #: 23
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 10:06:28 AM   
MistressNew


Posts: 112
Joined: 5/5/2007
Status: offline 		You can quote me on anything you like.  If I say it, I mean it.

Now, anybody care to speculate, if these polls are so worthless and everything is bad for Obama, why gamblers are giving McCain such bad odds at winning while Obama is their clear favorite?  Does Vegas enjoy losing money?  Is that the problem?

(in reply to popeye1250)
Profile   Post #: 24
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 11:02:55 AM   
cyberdude611


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Joined: 5/7/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MistressNew

You can quote me on anything you like.  If I say it, I mean it.

Now, anybody care to speculate, if these polls are so worthless and everything is bad for Obama, why gamblers are giving McCain such bad odds at winning while Obama is their clear favorite?  Does Vegas enjoy losing money?  Is that the problem?



Because those sites are ran by left-wingers. Just the other day they gave a 40% chance McCain drops Palin from the ticket. Obviously the chances of that happening in reality was zero.

Also I think InTrade is ran out of Europe....

(in reply to MistressNew)
Profile   Post #: 25
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 11:17:08 AM   
Thadius


Posts: 5091
Joined: 10/11/2005
Status: offline 		Just a few quick things to take into account.  First, the typical bounce from a convention is 10 points or more, Obama got 6 to 8 depending on which poll you look at.  Second Dems are polling 15 points higher than Reps, which means that for some reason Obama is not even getting the same numbers as the rest of his party.  The numbers that one should be looking at, if you want to see where the race is, will come out next week, as they will include both conventions plus a weekend of being able to talk with family.  If Obama is still up by 8 next week, it will show a breakout,  I highly doubt that is going to occur.  Then one must factor in the Bradley effect, and turnout tendencies of those each campaign is counting on.

This election is going to be a photo finish, which traditionally does not play well for Dems, especially in a year they should win by a landslide.

_____________________________

When the character of a man is not clear to you, look at his friends." ~ Japanese Proverb

(in reply to MistressNew)
Profile   Post #: 26
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 11:20:26 AM   
MistressNew


Posts: 112
Joined: 5/5/2007
Status: offline 		Actually, I found some numbers.  Ignore what I just wrote. 

Some of the biggest bouncers wound up losing: Al Gore in 2000 (eight-point bounce), President Carter in 1980 (10 points), Mike Dukakis in 1988 (seven).
   And some of the smaller bouncers wound up winning: Richard Nixon in 1968 (five), and President Bush in 2004 (two).


< Message edited by MistressNew -- 9/4/2008 11:22:23 AM >

(in reply to Thadius)
Profile   Post #: 27
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 11:39:58 AM   
Irishknight


Posts: 2016
Joined: 9/30/2007
Status: offline 		Polls are by nature not trustworthy.  Any point can be proven by limiting who you ask.  I have been turned down for polls due to political affiliation before or on the basis of my answer to the first question. 
I was once asked a negative question about Bush as the first question.  When I said that I disagreed with the particular assumption/statement, the questioner immediately said "Ummm.... We can't use you." and tore up the response sheet she had just begun.  Had the poll been trying to prove a valid point, she would have taken my answers along with all of the others.  Instead, she was deliberately skewing the poll to "prove" a point.  I would guess that the bigger polls just don't tell you when they throw out the answer sheet. 

(in reply to MistressNew)
Profile   Post #: 28
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 11:45:21 AM   
Thadius


Posts: 5091
Joined: 10/11/2005
Status: offline 		Those small bouncers, because I am not sure if you are looking at actual lead after the convention, were also the latter conventions.

You should also look at the '96 election.  Clinton was down by 7 going into his later convention, and wound up with a lead that he never surrendered after.

If this is deadlocked going into Oct. I would dare say that Obama is going back to the senate.  There is far too much ammo yet to be fired, and each time his leads disipate, the folks get become more immune to his charm as they wonder why he isn't walking away with the election.

_____________________________

When the character of a man is not clear to you, look at his friends." ~ Japanese Proverb

(in reply to MistressNew)
Profile   Post #: 29
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 12:28:49 PM   
DS4DUMMIES


Posts: 180
Joined: 8/7/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MistressNew

The word "insurmountable" is thrown around a lot these days, but ....

Gallup from Sept 2: 

Obama 50, McCain 43

CBS News from the same day:

Obama 48, McCain 40

I don't know about you guys, but I'm taking inauguration day off to watch President Obama's parade.




The numbers are actually much closer...about 6-7% different....which is basically a disaster for Obama right after his convention. I'd not book that day off if I were you....

_____________________________

"When we walk to the edge of all the light we have and take the step into the darkness of the unknown, we must believe that one of two things will happen. There will be something solid for us to stand on or we will be taught to fly.” Patrick Overton

(in reply to MistressNew)
Profile   Post #: 30
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 12:31:45 PM   
LaTigresse


Posts: 26123
Joined: 1/15/2006
Status: offline 		Actually, we have a restaurant here in Iowa City that is famous for it's coffee bean poll and accuracy of said poll. They have not been wrong since they've been doing it.

I was there briefly over lunch to run an errand and noticed something.

Obama's jar is twice as full as McCain's.

I think the bet I placed, after it was certain Obama was the Democractic pick, is safe.


_____________________________

My twisted, self deprecating, sense of humour, finds alot to laugh about, in your lack of one!

Just because you are well educated, articulate, and can use big, fancy words, properly........does not mean you are right!

(in reply to Thadius)
Profile   Post #: 31
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 12:35:14 PM   
DS4DUMMIES


Posts: 180
Joined: 8/7/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SilverMark

"51% of voters according to Rasmussen say the media is intentionally trying to hurt Sarah Palin and only 35% believe the media coverage is fair." I keep reading this but have yet to see anything scathing or out of the normal realm of reporting. Am I missing something? If I am, where are all the negative press? The facts of the trooper thing...reads like a legitimate investigation. Her 17 year old daughter is pregnant....( My own daughter gave birth to My Grand Son out of wedlock at 22 yrs.old but , had the same effect on My family as it would any)...not that I care about that but, the Campaign released the information, she was once for earmarks and now is against them. She liked the bridge...now she dosen't....She's a politician they all move on issues(not a flip flop from a Republican?...according to some only Democrats do that)....Now, when she is on the front page of the Inquirer saying she once had Bigfoots lovechild....I'd say it is outrageous behavior, although I dare say, they have not been known to report many facts.


Well...those muttonheads over at the Inquirer sure cleaned the Breck Girl's clock pretty well.... :)  The ONE time they got the facts right!

_____________________________

"When we walk to the edge of all the light we have and take the step into the darkness of the unknown, we must believe that one of two things will happen. There will be something solid for us to stand on or we will be taught to fly.” Patrick Overton

(in reply to SilverMark)
Profile   Post #: 32
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 12:36:56 PM   
DS4DUMMIES


Posts: 180
Joined: 8/7/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: LaTigresse

Actually, we have a restaurant here in Iowa City that is famous for it's coffee bean poll and accuracy of said poll. They have not been wrong since they've been doing it.

I was there briefly over lunch to run an errand and noticed something.

Obama's jar is twice as full as McCain's.

I think the bet I placed, after it was certain Obama was the Democractic pick, is safe.



Well...at this point....the Obama folks HAVE to rely on things like coffee bean polls...because the real-world ones aren't a-lookin so good :)

_____________________________

"When we walk to the edge of all the light we have and take the step into the darkness of the unknown, we must believe that one of two things will happen. There will be something solid for us to stand on or we will be taught to fly.” Patrick Overton

(in reply to LaTigresse)
Profile   Post #: 33
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 12:53:25 PM   
ShieldWolf


Posts: 55
Joined: 7/15/2005
Status: offline 		Why would I expect anything different in a state that is actually looking safe for the Dems? If you did the same thing in Texas you would ever wonder how any Republican since Reagan ever lost.

The more important numbers are not these tracking polls. Its statewide polls in battleground states as they will swing the electoral votes needed by each candidate to get over 270. My gut says McCain probably wins 274-264 but if Obama pulls off Colorado then he likely wins 273-265.

_____________________________

"The only man who never makes a mistake is the man who never does anything"--T. Roosevelt

(in reply to LaTigresse)
Profile   Post #: 34
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 12:57:16 PM   
LaTigresse


Posts: 26123
Joined: 1/15/2006
Status: offline 		I will pay attention to any poll with a history of 60 years of accuracy. 

_____________________________

My twisted, self deprecating, sense of humour, finds alot to laugh about, in your lack of one!

Just because you are well educated, articulate, and can use big, fancy words, properly........does not mean you are right!

(in reply to DS4DUMMIES)
Profile   Post #: 35
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 1:00:25 PM   
ShieldWolf


Posts: 55
Joined: 7/15/2005
Status: offline 		In how many of these elections did Iowa go to the losing candidate? Probably not any with maybe the exception of the 2000 election.

_____________________________

"The only man who never makes a mistake is the man who never does anything"--T. Roosevelt

(in reply to LaTigresse)
Profile   Post #: 36
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 1:15:20 PM   
DS4DUMMIES


Posts: 180
Joined: 8/7/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: bipolarber

The problem with these polls, overall, is that they are polls of likely voters. i.e. folks who have voted in past elections. What none of them are taking into account are the rising tide of NEW voters, of college students who see the writing on the wall about the draft  should McCain wins, the increased numbers of African American voters in the south, and just the general number os people who didn't vote before, but who have absolutely had it with the growing Bush fuckups.

Sure, read the polls... then discard them. Most likely, they're off base to begin with. At best, you might get some fairly accurate opinions about proposed policies.... but that's about it.


....given the Democrats' miserable record on energy, and Pelosi's obvioous lack of knowledge about offshore drilling and the potential reserves therein....I have to believe that by the election, new young voters and black voters aside....when people in north (where the population is...) are paying $4.00+ for home heating oil....the entire energy issue has great potential to boomerang on the Democrats. Gasoline is by and large a fuel where you potentially have SOME options to conserve...you can limit frivolous driving, carpool, etc. and save SOME money.......heating oil is a necessity and there is not much you can do to cut back, save for shivering a bit or pouring money into your home for added insulation, stae of the art windows, etc.. 

So what did not hit the fan this driving season, is going to hit the fan this heating season.

The Democrats' wistful thoughts of wind farms and renewable energy - are all noble ideas but of zero help heating homes with oil tanks in the basement THIS winter. The $ hurt will be THIS year. Plus, it's unrealistic to think that a nation whose entire transporation infrastructure is based on oil, has any hope of weaning itself off it in less than decades.

While new drilling will take years to get the oil to market, it is still a shorter window than you're looking at with other energy sources. Look too at whan ethanol production has done to food prices.

Windfarms? ...lol....in perhaps the greatest irony....the NIMBY's who oppose large windfarms tend to also be the same elitists who largely populate the ranks of the Democratic hierarchy. Example: the Cape Cod waterfronters who are actively opposing the creation of windfarms off the Cape. They don't want their view spoiled...lol. .

There is ZERO reason not to drill.....and people know that. Obama is either going ot have to bitch-slap Pelosi and jump on the drilling bandwagon....or go down to defeat. Personally, I hope Palin makes it to office because she looks like she'd enjoy giving Pelosi a big smack across the puss... :)

< Message edited by DS4DUMMIES -- 9/4/2008 1:28:16 PM >

_____________________________

"When we walk to the edge of all the light we have and take the step into the darkness of the unknown, we must believe that one of two things will happen. There will be something solid for us to stand on or we will be taught to fly.” Patrick Overton

(in reply to bipolarber)
Profile   Post #: 37
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 1:25:12 PM   
rulemylife


Posts: 14614
Joined: 8/23/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Thadius

Those small bouncers, because I am not sure if you are looking at actual lead after the convention, were also the latter conventions.

You should also look at the '96 election.  Clinton was down by 7 going into his later convention, and wound up with a lead that he never surrendered after.

If this is deadlocked going into Oct. I would dare say that Obama is going back to the senate.  There is far too much ammo yet to be fired, and each time his leads disipate, the folks get become more immune to his charm as they wonder why he isn't walking away with the election.


So, if I understand right, he's winning............... but not by enough................. and when voters see he is not winning by enough they will abandon him and he will lose. 

Interesting theory.

(in reply to Thadius)
Profile   Post #: 38
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 1:31:54 PM   
DS4DUMMIES


Posts: 180
Joined: 8/7/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: rulemylife

quote:

ORIGINAL: Thadius

Those small bouncers, because I am not sure if you are looking at actual lead after the convention, were also the latter conventions.

You should also look at the '96 election.  Clinton was down by 7 going into his later convention, and wound up with a lead that he never surrendered after.

If this is deadlocked going into Oct. I would dare say that Obama is going back to the senate.  There is far too much ammo yet to be fired, and each time his leads disipate, the folks get become more immune to his charm as they wonder why he isn't walking away with the election.


So, if I understand right, he's winning............... but not by enough................. and when voters see he is not winning by enough they will abandon him and he will lose. 

Interesting theory.


I think the idea is, that his lackluster performance will cost him voters that are currently undecided, as they see his lack of an overwhelming rise as being indicative of weakness - perhaps enough weakness that people will think that maybe they should not vote for him either.

_____________________________

"When we walk to the edge of all the light we have and take the step into the darkness of the unknown, we must believe that one of two things will happen. There will be something solid for us to stand on or we will be taught to fly.” Patrick Overton

(in reply to rulemylife)
Profile   Post #: 39
RE: Latest polls show Obama opening huge lead - 9/4/2008 1:35:55 PM   
rulemylife


Posts: 14614
Joined: 8/23/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: DS4DUMMIES

quote:

ORIGINAL: LaTigresse

Actually, we have a restaurant here in Iowa City that is famous for it's coffee bean poll and accuracy of said poll. They have not been wrong since they've been doing it.

I was there briefly over lunch to run an errand and noticed something.

Obama's jar is twice as full as McCain's.

I think the bet I placed, after it was certain Obama was the Democractic pick, is safe.



Well...at this point....the Obama folks HAVE to rely on things like coffee bean polls...because the real-world ones aren't a-lookin so good :)


Yeah, just think how bad it would be if he was losing in the real-world polls! 

(in reply to DS4DUMMIES)
Profile   Post #: 40
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