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Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American dominance - 4/13/2006 8:25:30 AM

Turdstool

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Like it or not the power of America is on the wain. Like all empires it rises and falls and others take their place. The 20th century was dominated by 2 superpowers,both equally corrupt and morally bancrupt. One tyranny tried to replace them but was defeated.

Later small impoverished,former colonial nations would give both superpowers a good kicking and send them on their bruised and battered way.

This century will see 5 superpowers. Each will be a rival of the others but may form and discard alliances with each other for convienient expediency.

In order of wealth and importance they will be:-

European Union
China
United States
India
Russia

All other nations will look to one or more of those superpowers for protection in addition to trade. Natural resouces will have become more scarse and nuclear energy and solar and wind power will be the norm. Wars will start over trade rights and also over ever dwindling freshwater resouces. Africa will become a vast empty continent due to falling birth rates and no investment. The population of the earth in 50 years time will be 20 billion.

< Message edited by Turdstool -- 4/13/2006 8:27:51 AM >

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 8:38:49 AM

FisherKing1963

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America was born with terminal cancer.
Since it's birth it has been eaten from the inside out by the machinations of the elite cryptocracy made up of the decendents of loyalists and aristocrats who should have been rounded up after yorktown and shot like the traitors and pigs they were.
Paradoxically, they were permitted not only to live, but to keep their land and their fortunes.

[Mod note: Font size changed]

< Message edited by ModeratorEleven -- 4/13/2006 9:21:23 AM >

(in reply to Turdstool)

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 8:59:51 AM

caitlyn

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An interesting theory, but one that ignores some important factors, the biggest of which is military might.

Most great empires last well past their prime, just on military might alone. Right now, there are serious gaps in several areas, between the military of the United States, and all other nations.

It's all fine and dandy to say that this nation or that is corrupt and morally backrupt, and you may in fact be 100% correct in that assessment ... but the reality of history is that "might makes right" ... and right now, the United States and her very close allies have a whole hell of a lot more "right", then everyone else in the world.

Good topic. We were discussing this in class, just a few days ago, so I can't really take credit for all this wonderful insite.

(in reply to Turdstool)

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 9:07:44 AM

cloudboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: caitlyn

An interesting theory, but one that ignores some important factors, the biggest of which is military might.

Most great empires last well past their prime, just on military might alone. Right now, there are serious gaps in several areas, between the military of the United States, and all other nations.

It's all fine and dandy to say that this nation or that is corrupt and morally backrupt, and you may in fact be 100% correct in that assessment ... but the reality of history is that "might makes right" ... and right now, the United States and her very close allies have a whole hell of a lot more "right", then everyone else in the world.

Good topic. We were discussing this in class, just a few days ago, so I can't really take credit for all this wonderful insite.

Actually, its precisely when a Country relies on Military might that its cause is lost. This has become even more true in the modern era. If you look at Vietnam, Afganistan, and now IRAQ --- you can plainly see the futility of the US projecting its power abroad in lands and cultures it does not understand.

True, the US could can go abroad and win militiary victories, but its come up rather lame on the "holding the peace" and nation building side of the equation.

(in reply to caitlyn)

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 9:09:51 AM

TolerableCruelty

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I hadn't realized the French had been "warlike" since Napoleon... don't they just usually give up and hope they don't lose too much territory until a western country comes to bail them out ?

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 9:09:54 AM

philosophy

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interesting idea........though i find myself disagreeing that America's military might is quite the positive factor caitlyn sees it as. In Vietnam such technology didnt win the war. In Iraq, arguably, we are seeing a similar pattern. Armies cant beat populations, only store up trouble for future generations. In world terms America has lost a lot of friends recently, here in the UK no-one will stand for supporting the US in such a clearly ill thought out adventure such as Iraq. Diplomacy has to be the way forward or America will simply fall like the Romans, a victim of their own hubris.

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 9:17:39 AM

TolerableCruelty

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not to start throwing stones, per se... but the English are more diplomatic and less "conquering" than what the Americans are ?

since when ?

last I heard, they usually jump in the same boat as the Americans when its time to go invade a country... not to mention, head out on their own as well, without the Americans help... diplomacy certainly has won over the scads of Irish in the last half century, eh ?

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 9:17:40 AM

mnottertail

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LOL,

I was thinkin' it, but glad you said it.

Ron

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 9:28:09 AM

philosophy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TolerableCruelty

not to start throwing stones, per se... but the English are more diplomatic and less "conquering" than what the Americans are ?

since when ?

you imply that someone in the thread has said this about the English......i can't find the reference

(in reply to TolerableCruelty)

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 9:28:11 AM

LorgromAndMiskel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Turdstool
In order of wealth and importance they will be:-

European Union
China
United States
India
Russia

Lets look at each of these.

EU: Needs to honestly get there collective heads out of there asses. The members still can't agree to one currency, how are they going to become a real world power?
China: Yes has the personal, Yes has the desire, But they have to become what they hate the most (namely like the US) to become that power.
US: Already the only super power, and one I honestly belive would LOVE to have a couple of more around to help with helping everyone.
India: Really????? How so
Russia: Once they reunite the old USSR and have a more europian or american leadership. But then again wont that just become another USA?

(in reply to Turdstool)

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 9:43:54 AM

TolerableCruelty

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quote:

ORIGINAL: philosophy

here in the UK no-one will stand for supporting the US in such a clearly ill thought out adventure such as Iraq. Diplomacy has to be the way forward or America will simply fall like the Romans, a victim of their own hubris.

I took that as you "speaking" for the UK... implying such that the UK is more diplomatic and has more friends than the US..
pardon Me if I were mistaken, that was just My take on the post.

(in reply to philosophy)

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 9:56:18 AM

incognitoinmass

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Demographics suggest that Russia will lose almost half its population in 50 years and in that same time frame Europe will be completely overrun by muslims.

Neither entity's "native" population is reproducing at a rate high enough to even maintain it's current 'native' populations.

Russia is completely unlikely to be a superpower under those circumstances---it's practically a third world country now. The European Union may yet emerge but with an economy growing at a paltry 1% a year, chronic unemployment, and net population loss, if it does, the center might be Teheran.

My prediction:

US
India
China

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But if, baby, I'm the bottom,
You're the top!

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 10:03:15 AM

SirKenin

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And you are just figuring this out now? We were talking about this two years ago on another message board. It really is a no brainer.

China and the US are going to war and China is going to kick the US' ass. End of story as far as I am concerned.

< Message edited by SirKenin -- 4/13/2006 10:04:16 AM >

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 10:07:16 AM

philosophy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TolerableCruelty
[I took that as you "speaking" for the UK... implying such that the UK is more diplomatic and has more friends than the US..
pardon Me if I were mistaken, that was just My take on the post.

lol..first off, i'm welsh not english.

The point i was trying to make is that America may not have as many friends in the future as it has had in the past, at least while the current thinking in Washington regarding foreign policy is maintained.
Any discussion of the relative merits of UK and US diplomatic and military records probably belongs in another thread...lol

(in reply to TolerableCruelty)

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 10:10:06 AM

mnottertail

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quote:

ORIGINAL: incognitoinmass
Demographics suggest that Russia will lose almost half its population in 50 years and in that same time frame Europe will be completely overrun by muslims.

This is where we left off in the crusades, only to pick it up a few centuries later.

Well, most wars are holy wars, but the ones that are won and situations held for any real length of time are fought for the pocketbook.

Ron

_____________________________

Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30

(in reply to incognitoinmass)

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 10:32:19 AM

incognitoinmass

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Joined: 10/8/2005
From: Massachusetts
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quote:

China and the US are going to war and China is going to kick the US' ass. End of story as far as I am concerned.

Good for you.

However, the further China moves down the inexorable path of capitalism the less likely this scenario is.

Our battle is here, now. If we don't win this Islamofascist vs Western Civilization showdown then the next battle will not be US v China but Teheran vs Beijing.

_____________________________

But if, baby, I'm the bottom,
You're the top!

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 11:38:02 AM

Mercnbeth

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quote:

Like all empires it rises and falls and others take their place.

Turd,
I only wish that the US was an "empire". There were empires in the past, Greek, Roman, Chinese, British. Labeling the US as an "empire" is akin to labeling someone a "slave" who has 3 type written pages of "limits". What's the difference between say the Roman empire and the US? Rome's powerful military might and the pragmatic application of that power dictated the terms of a "Pax Romanus". You either became part of the "peaceful" empire or you were destroyed. The US tries to "influence" other nations, not conquer them. The closest that the US comes to being an Roman type empire is not the US Government, but US Corporations. They pragmatically destroy anything in their path with a Roman type pragmatic conscience. Now if you say that US Corporations with their money influence US politics to the point of common identity, you'd have an argument. If the Corporations had to foot the bill for the US military protection of their foreign corporate investments, the bottom line for some companies, say Exxon for example, wouldn't be in the Billions of dollars. But fortunately or unfortunately depending on your philosophy, the US in NOT an empire, by the definitions of prior "empires" cited.

Your "Wealth & Importance" list is flawed. The European Union is failing. They can not replace their current productive population, the social entitlement programs are burdensome to the collective GNP, and nationalism hasn't been replaced by a collective EU identity. I doubt the EU will exist in 10 years.

Under a overall blanket of socialism, China can never succeed without the US as the preeminent consumer. It would be counterproductive for them to conquer and change their best customer. China will have to go through the same break up and reconstruction process as the USSR before it can realize their potential.

Russia, was a figment of the US imagination. They were never a competitive threat even when they tried to be. I remember taking a tour of one submarines sitting in the harbor of Long Beach. As I was going through it I said; "wow - what a piece of shit - these guys were really brave in these things back in the 60's." The tour guide, a Russian ex-patriot, sheepishly replied that he served in the ship during the late 1980's! It took great advertising to make us fear and pay for the US militarization.

India is interesting only because of a "wealth and importance" that you left out. The Muslim world. They have the monetary and political might to be a factor not only in the middle east, but throughout the world. India would be a nice jumping point. A Muslim empire is very possible. They have a Romanesque pragmatic philosophy; join us, become us, or die. That a fundamental empire principle. They also are fearless for earthy consequences. If you accepted the USSR as a "superpower" would you ever assign a Muslim "suicide bomber" mentality to them? Japan's Kamikaze pilots come closest but they were a last ditch effort. The Muslims use suicide as an initial blow. Now that Iran has taken one more step toward becoming a nuclear power, do you have any doubt they'd use it? The Muslim world wants a "Muslim World" but they don't fear the consequence of failing to meet that objective. Even if that failure meant total self destruction and total annihilation they still have their "eternal reward". Participating and dying in a Jihad guarantees them an after-life utopia. In many cases that after-life is MUCH better than their current condition.

The Muslims are the only logical replacement to the current US world influence. And in their case it would be a true empire.

Any argument?

(in reply to Turdstool)

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 11:46:32 AM

incognitoinmass

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I agree generally with what you are saying.

Islamicists are the only threat we need worry about now. They have set the menu and all the choices are bad:

Deal with us now
Deal with a nuclear us later
Don't deal with us at all and we will deal with you later.

The last choice is currently being played out in Europe. If you like what you see there, well, that is the future for us if we fail to deal with them now.

_____________________________

But if, baby, I'm the bottom,
You're the top!

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 12:18:15 PM

caitlyn

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I was going to bring up regional conflicts like Vietnam in my original response, but decided to wait until a few people brought it up as a way to illustrate American weakness. Thanks to cloudboy and philosophy.

Diplomacy counts for nothing, without, and compared to, military might. I know that isn't popular, but it is, what it is.

Ancient Rome was never strong in diplomacy, but had the army, and stood long past it's prime because if it. Even very late in the Empire, it was not diplomacy that gave new life in the early fifty Century, it was Flavius Aeteus and the army.

Byzantium was only strong, while they were strong militarily. Justinian and Theodora were successful, because they had Belisarius. In the tenth Century, the resurgence of the empire was not due to diplomatic gains, but rather to the military gains of Basil II. A few hundred years later with the empire ripe for the taking, along comes a Alexius Comnenus with his reporm of the army. The Empire lasted another 250 years after the Comnenan dynasty.

Looking at the other side of the coin, the two best examples are the Angevins, who let the army wane after Henry II, and suffered for it, and the Ottomans, who were a diplomatic animal, but couldn't win on the battlefield. The Angevins were short lived, and the Ottomans lasted a long time, but as a second rate power.

Now, back to regional conflicts. If we are talking about the projection of power on the global scale, what has or will happen in regional conflicts with limited goals, has little meaning. In a world conflict, there are no limits and no objectives like winning hearts and minds. Nobody tried to win any hearts and minds in the Second World War ... it was simply a projection of global power.

In a projection of global power, the United States is the only country that even possesses a modern Navy. For everyone else, it's a long swim. The United States is the only country with a supersonic stealth aircraft, and modern aircraft in large numbers.

In a projection of global power, who do you suppose the other Western Democracies will side with? Oh, it's easy to not support the United States on an issue like Iraq, but how much does that REALLY mean, when we are talking about the projection of global power?

The final question ... in a projection of global power scenario, who would you bet on, right now? In twenty years? In our lifetime?

< Message edited by caitlyn -- 4/13/2006 12:44:32 PM >

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RE: Emerging Superpowers the downfall of American domin... - 4/13/2006 12:28:54 PM

Chaingang

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China.

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"Everything flows, nothing stands still." (Πάντα ῥεῖ καὶ οὐδὲν μένει) - Heraclitus

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