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RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 6:17:17 AM

Hillwilliam

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The people selling guns to the cartels are not manufacturers. Therefore, the people selling guns to them could care less if a gun is tracked to the manufacturer.

You keep harping on "broken paper trail". Broken paper trail does NOT matter as long as begging and end point can be established.

"Untracable means "CAN'T ESTABLISH ORIGIN" for the purpose of the article I posted.

Whether a 'paper trail' exists or not, If it was made in the US, it can be traced to the US.

As I said earlier, filing of serial numbers is someting that you see in old cop shows and big time cartels could give a shit where their guns are traced to.

If it was NOT made in the US, there is a good chance it cannot be traced.

Thus the conclusion. If it cannot be traced, there is an overwhelming chance it was NOT made in the US.

I dont think you hate the US. I think that you hate guns. I bet you have never actually held one but you hate them anyway because of what you have been force fed about them.

(in reply to JstAnotherSub)

Post #: 61

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 6:46:13 AM

hertz

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

The people selling guns to the cartels are not manufacturers. Therefore, the people selling guns to them could care less if a gun is tracked to the manufacturer.

Flawed logic cannot really stand in for a proper argument. I have seen a number of reports suggesting that some of the guns described as 'untraceable' are untraceable because their numbers have been deliberately removed. Maybe the numbers just got worn through normal use, though? That could explain it. Another possible explanation is that someone would prefer their legal ownership of what is now an illegal weapon is not traced.

quote:

You keep harping on "broken paper trail". Broken paper trail does NOT matter as long as begging and end point can be established.

This would be opinion? I need to say to you again that it all hinges on the meaning of the word 'untraceable'.

quote:

"Untracable means "CAN'T ESTABLISH ORIGIN" for the purpose of the article I posted.

Opinion, again? I am challenging your definition, directly. I do not believe that is what it means at all.

quote:

Whether a 'paper trail' exists or not, If it was made in the US, it can be traced to the US.

I don't disagree with this.

quote:

As I said earlier, filing of serial numbers is someting that you see in old cop shows and big time cartels could give a shit where their guns are traced to.

According to a couple of articles I have read as this debate has continued, this is not actually true.

quote:

Many of those untraced guns have serial numbers that have been filed off. Until recently, only a small percentage of U.S.-origin guns in Mexico had the serial numbers filed off, and that number has increased significantly—from roughly five to 20 percent. This renders those guns untraceable.
http://mexidata.info/id2366.html

quote:

Gun-rights advocates say the 90 percent figure is exaggerated, since Mexican officials estimate that only about one-third of the arms seized are handed over to the ATF to be traced. And, they say, not all of those can be traced because the serial numbers have been filed off.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2009/0408/p06s19-woam.html

Serial numbers are being obliterated. Someone gives a shit.

quote:

If it was NOT made in the US, there is a good chance it cannot be traced.

I don't disagree with this.

quote:

Thus the conclusion. If it cannot be traced, there is an overwhelming chance it was NOT made in the US.

Flawed logic leads to flawed conclusion.

quote:

I dont think you hate the US. I think that you hate guns. I bet you have never actually held one but you hate them anyway because of what you have been force fed about them.

Yes, I do hate guns. I would imagine my feelings about guns colour my thinking as much as your own. But I am willing to put my feelings to one side to follow the argument.

(in reply to Hillwilliam)

Post #: 62

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 6:51:28 AM

Hillwilliam

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siiigh, another one for the "Dont confuse me with verifiable facts, I KNOW what is happening"

(in reply to hertz)

Post #: 63

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 6:56:49 AM

hertz

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Interesting article here about the manufacture of weapons without serial numbers...

http://www.montereyherald.com/local/ci_16872865?nclick_check=1

This sort of weapon would be both untraceable and from the US at the same time.

(in reply to hertz)

Post #: 64

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 7:07:22 AM

hertz

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Interesting article here about weapons smuggled into the US for sale and shipment to Mexican cartels. It mentions 80 AK47s.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101104/ap_on_re_us/us_weapons_smuggling_navy_seal

These would be weapons which are 'untraceable' and, at the same time, from the US.

(in reply to hertz)

Post #: 65

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 7:21:32 AM

Hillwilliam

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By that definition, if a weapon was transshipped thru London, it would be "from England"

We're grasping at straws here.

(in reply to hertz)

Post #: 66

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 7:25:55 AM

Hillwilliam

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quote:

ORIGINAL: hertz

Interesting article here about the manufacture of weapons without serial numbers...

http://www.montereyherald.com/local/ci_16872865?nclick_check=1

This sort of weapon would be both untraceable and from the US at the same time.

Interesting article. The definition of manufacturing for the purpose of the arrest was "altering in some way" These guys didnt have a foundry or a factory. In fact, the raid was made at a furniture store. The ATF has no idea where the weapons originally came from.

Same as the other article, You equate "touching US soil" with originating in the US.

(in reply to hertz)

Post #: 67

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 7:32:01 AM

hertz

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An article about 'Project Gunrunner', which is designed to trace weapons to the dealers who originally sold them...

quote:

ATF in 2006 launched Project Gunrunner...
The cornerstone of the $60 million program is gun tracing - tracking weapons to the dealers who originally sold them. It has long been considered a powerful tool for combating trafficking.
But the Justice IG report said that Mexican gun tracing has been "unsuccessful." ATF officials complain that, in the past, most guns seized in Mexico were not traced. Although the number of traces has increased, problems persist, ATF officials say.
http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2010/12/arming-mexicos-drug-cartels.html

Project Gunrunner mentions the e-trace system.

According to the Wikipedia page on e-trace...

quote:

According to the ATF National Tracing Center data, an invalid serial number was the most common reason for unsuccessful traces from Mexico, but the report doesn't clarify how a serial number can be "invalid".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ETrace

Which suggests that the largest number of 'untraceable' weapons may have originated in the US, but are marked as 'untraceable' because the e-trace system has been unable to clearly identify them.

PDF here: http://www.justice.gov/oig/reports/ATF/e1101.pdf

Unless you have convincing evidence to the contrary, I am inclined to believe that an 'untraceable' weapon may simply be a weapon for which the attempt to trace has failed. This implies that such a weapon might originate in the US or anywhere else in the world. This would mean that in the context of illegal weapons found in Mexico, whatever figure is given for weapons originating in the US - 20% to 30% maybe, has to be seen as the minimum confirmed number. the actual figure is difficult to confirm but may easily be very much higher.

Why is this important? because it adds weight to the suggestion that an 'untraceable' weapon is simply one which cannot be tracked back to a previous owner or dealer. An 'untraceable' weapon is not the same thing as 'a weapon without a serial number', which makes the claim that 'untraceable' weapons, by definition, do not come from the US, bogus.

< Message edited by hertz -- 12/19/2010 8:07:01 AM >

(in reply to hertz)

Post #: 68

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 7:33:31 AM

hertz

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

siiigh, another one for the "Dont confuse me with verifiable facts, I KNOW what is happening"

Don't be so hard on yourself. All you need to do is try and put your personal feelings about guns to one side, as I have.

(in reply to Hillwilliam)

Post #: 69

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 7:38:48 AM

hertz

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

By that definition, if a weapon was transshipped thru London, it would be "from England"

We're grasping at straws here.

Not really. You have doggedly held on to your belief that most of the guns found in Mexico cannot have come from the US, and I am building a case to undermine that position.

(in reply to Hillwilliam)

Post #: 70

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 7:39:52 AM

Hillwilliam

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One thing you have to understand. You have to consider the source when you read an article. News services GASSSSSSSSP 'slant' their stories. Even FOX has been known to occasionally put a slight 'spin' on things

.

Get the raw data and crunch it yourself.

Use multiple sources and look for faulty logic.

Take info that is apparently unrelated and let it get together.

I mean you want folks to believe that there are tiny little shop all over the southern US manufacturing assault rifles for Mexico to the tune of 60,000 a year and that is the ONLY way all those untracable guns came up.

The FBI isnt the Mossad but they arent TOTALLY inept

An alternative theory is that the mexican cartels are using foreign sources for guns and buying them cheaper ($100 or so for an AK vs almost $1000 for an american made knockoff according to the articles YOU posted that I read). If you are buying 10 of them, much less 100, it makes sense to order them from S Africa. Easier to get into the country too.

Or, you can spend 10 times as much money, have the FBI after you, spend ALL that work dilligently filing identifying marks and numbers off when it doesnt matter to you that the origin can be identified (the lands in the barrel will wear out a LONG time before a serial number is rendered illegible in normal use).

Drug cartel's are run by vicious people but they arent stupid.

1. They dont want to spend $1000 for something they can buy elsewhere for $100.

2. They dont want the FBI after their ass any more than they have to.

The mexican authorities, they just buy off.

(in reply to Hillwilliam)

Post #: 71

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 7:49:03 AM

hertz

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I notice you have completely ignored Post 68, where I provide clear links to ATF web resources which clearly state that an 'untraceable' weapon is simply a weapon for which the attempt to trace has failed.

An 'untraceable' weapon is not a weapon from outside the US as you imply. An 'untraceable' weapon is one for which the trace process has been unable to elicit any sensible data, usually (according to the ATF) because of a problem with the serial number entered.

(in reply to Hillwilliam)

Post #: 72

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 8:05:15 AM

hertz

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

I mean you want folks to believe that there are tiny little shop all over the southern US manufacturing assault rifles for Mexico to the tune of 60,000 a year and that is the ONLY way all those untracable guns came up.

I didn't say that. I suggested it as one possibility amongst a number of possibilities. I think you know that.

(in reply to Hillwilliam)

Post #: 73

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 8:37:46 AM

tazzygirl

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quote:

I have no fear of immigrants. I think they add value to our communities and economy. If they can survive here 'under the radar', then maybe we need to look at ways of allowing them to contribute where they can pay tax and enjoy the benefits of insurance and pensions provision. In the UK, illegal immigration is a very small problem blown up to look big to distract us from the obscenity of banker's pay and the under-taxation of the wealthy. We'd get more mileage from tackling company tax avoidance and white-collar crime.

Whatever, this is a thread about the US, not the UK. But I appreciate your concern for our welfare.

They werent paying taxes for many years. Now they are eligible for your welfare programs. Nice how that works out, huh.

And, trust me, i am not concerned about your welfare. I just like to point out your hypocricy.

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(in reply to hertz)

Post #: 74

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 8:57:13 AM

Hillwilliam

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quote:

ORIGINAL: hertz

I notice you have completely ignored Post 68, where I provide clear links to ATF web resources which clearly state that an 'untraceable' weapon is simply a weapon for which the attempt to trace has failed.

An 'untraceable' weapon is not a weapon from outside the US as you imply. An 'untraceable' weapon is one for which the trace process has been unable to elicit any sensible data, usually (according to the ATF) because of a problem with the serial number entered.

What is the most common reason the trace attempt failed? Serial number is not in the ATF database.
What is the most commeon reason for that? Not manufactured in the US.

As I said earlier. US made assault weapons are A: traceable and B: EXPENSIVE.

Drug lords dont care much about the first but the damn sure care about the second. They're businessmen. They want to buy their supplies as cheaply as possible or they wont be in business long.

Why would there be a prob with the serial number entered? It isnt in the data base. What are the serial numbers not in the US database? Non US numbers.

You are supporting my side of the argument. The ATF is a VERY efficient organization. They know more than Santa Clause.

It's easier and cheaper for the drug lords to get AK's from overseas than the US. I wouldnt doubt that then they have a shipment of opium come in from Afghanistan, they ask for a hundred AK's to be sent along with.
AK's in the third world are DIRT cheap and fully auto. American made AK's are about $900 and normally NOT fully auto. If you had a drug business, where would you buy them?

(in reply to hertz)

Post #: 75

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 9:05:15 AM

hertz

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

quote:

I have no fear of immigrants. I think they add value to our communities and economy. If they can survive here 'under the radar', then maybe we need to look at ways of allowing them to contribute where they can pay tax and enjoy the benefits of insurance and pensions provision. In the UK, illegal immigration is a very small problem blown up to look big to distract us from the obscenity of banker's pay and the under-taxation of the wealthy. We'd get more mileage from tackling company tax avoidance and white-collar crime.

Whatever, this is a thread about the US, not the UK. But I appreciate your concern for our welfare.

They werent paying taxes for many years. Now they are eligible for your welfare programs. Nice how that works out, huh.

And, trust me, i am not concerned about your welfare. I just like to point out your hypocricy.

The point of welfare, in my opinion, is that it is universal and it looks out for those in need. I don't think of it as a kind of insurance policy which hands out only what an individual has paid in, as you evidently do. I'm not sure where the accusation of hypocrisy has come from. All I have said is that I think immigrants add value to communities. Where is the hypocrisy in that?

(in reply to tazzygirl)

Post #: 76

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 9:29:39 AM

hertz

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

What is the most common reason the trace attempt failed? Serial number is not in the ATF database.
What is the most commeon reason for that? Not manufactured in the US.

If you bothered to read the sources you would see this conclusion is incorrect.

quote:

As I said earlier. US made assault weapons are A: traceable and B: EXPENSIVE.

Evidence?

quote:

Why would there be a prob with the serial number entered? It isnt in the data base. What are the serial numbers not in the US database? Non US numbers.

You have already said this. The source materials suggest otherwise.

quote:

It's easier and cheaper for the drug lords to get AK's from overseas than the US.

Evidence?

quote:

I wouldnt doubt that then they have a shipment of opium come in from Afghanistan, they ask for a hundred AK's to be sent along with.

Evidence?

quote:

AK's in the third world are DIRT cheap and fully auto.

What, all of them? I am sure it would be way cheaper buying an AK47 in the third world. But this would imply bulk-buying to make the transportation costs stack up, and because of the dangers involved in doing this, I reckon a simple car journey from the US to Mexico wins out every time, even if the weapons are more expensive.

quote:

American made AK's are about $900 and normally NOT fully auto.

An AK47 can be purchased in the US for half of that figure. A kit for less still. A DIY conversion to full automatic could be done for next to nothing - I just read some instructions on how to do it. But anyway, why, suddenly, is it important that the guns are full automatics?

You need to take your own advice Hillwilliam. Follow what the evidence says, not what you want to believe.

< Message edited by hertz -- 12/19/2010 9:30:27 AM >

(in reply to Hillwilliam)

Post #: 77

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 9:41:50 AM

Hillwilliam

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I took that $900 figure from your website that you supplied.

The kits I saw were about 350 to 400.

In 2006, Importation of kits with barrels was banned.

The kits that are available do NOT include the reciever. Without a reciever, it is impossible to fire the weapon.

Or, You can go to the 3rd world and bulk buy them fully auto, complete weapon for $100 a pop and not worry about US customs.

(in reply to hertz)

Post #: 78

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 9:42:58 AM

Hillwilliam

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I'll grant that some of these weapons are coming from the US (probably a lot of those via sales to the Mexican Military) but it doesnt make sense to make the US your major supplier when it is easier and cheaper to get them from elsewhere.

(in reply to Hillwilliam)

Post #: 79

RE: Want to lower crime and cut taxes? - 12/19/2010 9:47:33 AM

Aneirin

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(in reply to hertz)

Post #: 80

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