Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012

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cloudboy -> Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 7:10:39 PM)
I was just watching Sean Hannity gloat over the latest polling data with Karl Rove, and their tone is that Romney is sitting pretty to win the national election. So, I just went to an Electoral College Map and added up the votes. I have all solid and leaning numbers to each candidate tabulated as: 199 Electoral Votes for Obama 198 Electoral Votes for Romney ------- Here are the toss up states: Colorado (9) Florida (29) Iowa (6) Michigan (16) Nevada (6) New Hampshire (4) North Carolina (15) Ohio (18) Pennsylvania (20) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10) I predict: NH, IO, MICH, NEV, OH, PENN and WIS to OBAMA: winning 80 Electoral Votes I predict: COLO, FLA, NH, NC, VA to Romney: winning 66 Electoral Votes Final Result: Obama 279 Electoral Votes / Romney 264 Electoral Votes Note: I think I'm missing five total electoral votes -- so their is an error of five built into this equation. Note II: MICH, PA, & WIS have not voted REP in the last three Presidential Contests. OH and VA are the key swing states.

servantforuse -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 7:38:55 PM)
WI, PA, OH and NC will go to Romney.

tazzygirl -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 7:41:48 PM)
PA is going to Obama... lol.. who are you kidding.

servantforuse -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 7:49:24 PM)
I'm not kidding, I'm serious. You might want to also add MI for Romney as well.

tazzygirl -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 7:51:23 PM)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html Might wanna check all the polls for PA for the past... ohhh...8 months.

servantforuse -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 7:55:45 PM)
Whatever. I saw an interveiw with former PA gov Ed Rindell earlier today. Even he is worried that PA might become a red state. To paraphrase. 'a very real possibility.'

tazzygirl -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 8:03:04 PM)
Dont see it happening. Romneys' didnt buy voting machines here. quote: "If President Obama loses the election — and I'm not sure he will, I like to say he's a slight favorite — but if he loses he lost it because when the Simpson-Bowles Commission report [came out], he didn't do anything with it initially. … He didn't grab it by the horns and go with it," Rendell said. quote: Rasmussen began the discussion by asking both Pennsylvanians about the competitiveness of the race at both the presidential and Senate levels in the state they once represented. Santorum said there's time for the Romney campaign to come in aggressively in the final week and win it. Rendell said it won't happen because Pennsylvania, especially the critical Philadelphia market, is too expensive for a TV ad blitz. quote: Rendell, who last week criticized Casey for campaigning against Republican Tom Smith only after losing his large lead in the polls, didn't back off. Rendell predicted Casey will win by five or six points, but said the tight race will show vulnerability and embolden a future challenger. "I think Sen. Casey made a mistake," Rendell said. "He held everything in check, he played prevent defense." Santorum, who lost his job by an embarrassing 18 points to Casey six years ago, was less critical, saying Casey is still the favorite to win the race but has done a poor job defining himself. http://articles.mcall.com/2012-10-24/news/mc-pa-rendell-santorum-chamber-debate-20121024_1_republican-santorum-mitt-romney-santorum-s-republican Im not seeing your claim here.

servantforuse -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 8:05:32 PM)
I'm not sure what clip I saw. I guess we will find out very soon.

tazzygirl -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 8:07:40 PM)
Uh huh.

Owner59 -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 8:21:52 PM)
Yeah right....cuz Rove said so.....[sm=rofl.gif] Rassie ,in a poll not even 12 hours old,puts Obama 6 points ahead in PA.... Obama`s got the PA-mo......[:D]

cloudboy -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 8:29:32 PM)
quote: OH and VA are the key swing states. This is where it shakes out according to the polls. If Romney wins OH, he wins the election unless Obama wins VA. If Obama pulls a miracle in FLA, then Romney's in deep shit. Romney holds a small lead in FLA. There's a hell of a lot of red necks down there, so its a tough state for Obama to win. I think there's a chance of Romney winning the popular vote and losing the election. That would be quite a spectacle. Fox News would bark on about that for 3 years and 10 months, minimum.

erieangel -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 8:31:15 PM)
servant, you are dreaming. PA will go to Obama. The voter ID law was put on hold for this election cycle.

tazzygirl -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 8:32:39 PM)
And PA is doing free Voter ID cards. By the time the next Presidential election rolls around, everyone here will have one.

Owner59 -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 8:45:55 PM)
"2012: Romney leads in national poll; Obama up in Ohio" Latest polls: Romney leads in another national poll: AP-GFK 47-45% and the gender gap is gone, as Pew first showed. It was 16 points, now it’s a 47-47% tie. States: OH: Time: Obama 49-44% From the Time poll: “The poll makes clear that there are really two races underway in Ohio. On one hand, the two candidates are locked in a dead heat among Ohioans who have not yet voted but who say they intend to, with 45% of respondents supporting the President and 45% preferring his Republican challenger. But Obama has clearly received a boost from Ohio’s early voting period, which began on Oct. 2 and runs through November 5. Among respondents who say they have already voted, Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney, 60% to 30%.” Notice how the cons want to pick and choose what parts they want to believe....... http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/25/14694455-2012-romney-leads-in-national-poll-obama-up-in-ohio?lite

cloudboy -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 8:50:07 PM)
I'd say the more accurate statement would be President Obama doesn't get a second term without Ohio.

Owner59 -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 8:53:32 PM)
Absolutly....NOT possible without the buckeye state.

cloudboy -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 9:01:54 PM)
The 2012 election is shaping up to be more polarized along racial lines than any presidential contest since 1988, with President Obama lagging behind Republican Mitt Romney among white voters by 21 percentage points, a steep drop in support from four years ago. I wonder how much Fox News plays into this equation.

Owner59 -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 10:02:41 PM)
RCP has Obama ahead in Ohio and PA...... with more electoral votes overall than Mitt, in the swings....... http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html#battlegrounds Subrob was touting RCP yesterday... Today..... romnesia[:D]

slvemike4u -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 10:19:55 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: tazzygirl PA is going to Obama... lol.. who are you kidding. No one...okay perhaps himself and a few other delusional characters [:)]

tweakabelle -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/25/2012 10:53:44 PM)
The 358 blog at the NYT (considered one of the more reliable predictors I'm told) has Obama at c62% probability of winning when I checked it earlier today. He seems to have a small edge in the popular vote, and a more substantial one in the Electoral College. Barring catastrophes, I don't see a lot of change between now and Nov 6. So as things stand, the smart money is on Obama.

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