RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (Full Version)

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tazzygirl -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/28/2012 11:33:26 PM)

Obama Ohio Edge
Early, in-person voting started Oct. 2 in Ohio and already more than a million people have voted in a state where 5.7 million did so in 2008. A Time magazine poll of likely Ohio voters last week showed Obama with a two-to-one lead, 60 percent to 30 percent, among those who’ve already voted.

Obama’s campaign is banking large numbers of votes in Ohio counties that backed him four years ago. In Franklin County, which includes Columbus and surroundings, 141,019 people had already voted through Oct. 26, according to the local election board. That represents about a quarter of the county’s total vote in 2008, when 44 percent of the vote was cast before Election Day.

In Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland and its suburbs, 161,889 had cast early ballots as of the end of last week, also about a quarter of the 2008 vote.

Ohio early voters favored Democratic candidates in 2010 and 2006, while Election-Day voters favored Republican candidates, a study of early voting by the University of Akron concluded. Early voters were more likely to be women, older, and of lower income and education attainment, the 2010 study said.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-29/democrats-hold-early-voting-advantage-over-republicans#p2




FMRFGOPGAL -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/29/2012 12:25:16 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: subrob1967

quote:

I have always been a believer in data telling me the full story. Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.


Politico

8 days... Tick tock


http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/

Time to start keeping extra rollaids in the cruiser.
tick tock




servantforuse -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/30/2012 8:36:40 PM)

Has anyone been paying attention to the latest gallup poll on early voting ? Romney 52%. Obama 45%..




tazzygirl -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/30/2012 8:37:54 PM)

RCP Average 10/22 - 10/29 -- -- 47.9 47.1 Romney +0.8

And try 51 and 46% They suspended tracking sue to the storm.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx

If you are going to quote facts.....




lovmuffin -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/30/2012 11:40:00 PM)

I just heard that a Gallup poll of early voters has Romney up over Obama 52% to 45%. I don't know how this will play as far as the critical states he needs but its certainly good news for Romney.




cloudboy -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (11/2/2012 7:36:05 PM)

Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight has Obama winning the Election 303 to 234.

Obama leading in: OH, PA, MI, WI, NH, NV, COLO, IO, and VA.

Romney leads in NC and FLA.

Curious if Romney had said he was wrong about the AUTO BAILOUT, defended his Healthcare program in MA, and said on the record that he would raise taxes on the wealthy to pay their fair share --- would he be in a better position? Has the far right and the lingering memory of the BUSH administration cost him the election? Romney has a track record of bipartisanship, business acumen, working well with others, and problem solving -- but pandering to all the nut job right wingers -- was not something he could wash away effectively before the American voters. Plus, his strengths as broader American Presidential Candidate were considered weaknesses by the Republican Base.




lovmuffin -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (11/2/2012 9:00:27 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

Obama Ohio Edge
Early, in-person voting started Oct. 2 in Ohio and already more than a million people have voted in a state where 5.7 million did so in 2008. A Time magazine poll of likely Ohio voters last week showed Obama with a two-to-one lead, 60 percent to 30 percent, among those who’ve already voted.

Obama’s campaign is banking large numbers of votes in Ohio counties that backed him four years ago. In Franklin County, which includes Columbus and surroundings, 141,019 people had already voted through Oct. 26, according to the local election board. That represents about a quarter of the county’s total vote in 2008, when 44 percent of the vote was cast before Election Day.

In Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland and its suburbs, 161,889 had cast early ballots as of the end of last week, also about a quarter of the 2008 vote.

Ohio early voters favored Democratic candidates in 2010 and 2006, while Election-Day voters favored Republican candidates, a study of early voting by the University of Akron concluded. Early voters were more likely to be women, older, and of lower income and education attainment, the 2010 study said.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-29/democrats-hold-early-voting-advantage-over-republicans#p2



Actually what I heard is as of today democratic turn out is down by over 173,000 in early voting and republican turnout is up over 60,000. Even if the dems are ahead in the vote tally their running a deficit of about 240,000 compared to 2008 in voter turnout.




subrob1967 -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (11/2/2012 9:03:39 PM)

Three days... Tick tock




lovmuffin -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (11/2/2012 9:11:51 PM)

I would be curious to know what any of the conservatives here think of this potential voter fraud. I just ran across it and I wonder if there is anything to it.


http://www.theblaze.com/stories/have-you-heard-about-spigot-cities-that-may-pump-votes-to-obama/




tazzygirl -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (11/2/2012 9:28:48 PM)

quote:

Actually what I heard is as of today democratic turn out is down by over 173,000 in early voting and republican turnout is up over 60,000. Even if the dems are ahead in the vote tally their running a deficit of about 240,000 compared to 2008 in voter turnout.


and we know you never share where you hear things from.




Hillwilliam -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (11/2/2012 9:30:30 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: lovmuffin

I would be curious to know what any of the conservatives here think of this potential voter fraud. I just ran across it and I wonder if there is anything to it.


http://www.theblaze.com/stories/have-you-heard-about-spigot-cities-that-may-pump-votes-to-obama/

Maybe if the Kool-Aid drinkers on the Far Right would do the math, they would agree that getting rid of the Electoral College is a good idea. This would totally negate the problem that the Kool-Aid delivery service you cited claims mayyyybe exists.




DesideriScuri -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (11/2/2012 9:51:55 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam
quote:

ORIGINAL: lovmuffin
I would be curious to know what any of the conservatives here think of this potential voter fraud. I just ran across it and I wonder if there is anything to it.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/have-you-heard-about-spigot-cities-that-may-pump-votes-to-obama/

Maybe if the Kool-Aid drinkers on the Far Right would do the math, they would agree that getting rid of the Electoral College is a good idea. This would totally negate the problem that the Kool-Aid delivery service you cited claims mayyyybe exists.


How would that help?!? If "spigot cities" keep a State solid blue (if they are, in fact, real), how would making it a straight popular vote solve it?




tweakabelle -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (11/2/2012 9:52:34 PM)

FWIW, here's a fearless prediction from the Lucky Country. I might add that this is the first time I have ever tried to predict the outcome of a US election, so I am hoping for beginner's luck

Obama to win the popular vote by 1-2%.

Obama to win the EC by something in the region of 300 to 240 after winning most of the toss up States.

The result will force lots of Right wingers here to eat their own words, significant psychological trauma and a 4 year long mother of a hangover. And a lot of liberal smiles.




lovmuffin -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (11/2/2012 9:56:54 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

quote:

Actually what I heard is as of today democratic turn out is down by over 173,000 in early voting and republican turnout is up over 60,000. Even if the dems are ahead in the vote tally their running a deficit of about 240,000 compared to 2008 in voter turnout.


and we know you never share where you hear things from.



If I told you that I would have to listen to all kinds of shit over it but right now I'm hearing it from Rove on FOX as I type this. It would seem easy enough to check though as I'm sure you think Carl Rove is full of shit. [8D] You seem to be so good at checking shit out and coming up with links.

The information above is a little understated as I was coming up with it from memory and I didn't want to exaggerate. At this point republican early turnout is up by 98,000 and dems early turnout is down by 165,000 which is a deficit for Obama of 263,000. He won the state by 262,000 in 2008 so in effect his previous victory margin is wiped out.

He puts a positive light on the election from my perspective especially concerning Ohio but it's not to say I'm going to sleep well for the next few nights, anything could happen. I really don't want Obama back again, I'd rather have Nixon back as a zombie.




lovmuffin -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (11/2/2012 10:12:47 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam


quote:

ORIGINAL: lovmuffin

I would be curious to know what any of the conservatives here think of this potential voter fraud. I just ran across it and I wonder if there is anything to it.


http://www.theblaze.com/stories/have-you-heard-about-spigot-cities-that-may-pump-votes-to-obama/

Maybe if the Kool-Aid drinkers on the Far Right would do the math, they would agree that getting rid of the Electoral College is a good idea. This would totally negate the problem that the Kool-Aid delivery service you cited claims mayyyybe exists.




I thought it was only lefties that drank Koolaid [8D]

I realize the Blaze might lean a little to the right but It would seem like a logical way to commit voter fraud and it's the only place I've seen anything about this. Did it really happen in 2008 and is the potential real enough to effect the election in 2012 ? That's all I want to know. It's a legitimate question. There was a thread on voter fraud some weeks ago but I don't recall reading anything about this.




lovmuffin -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (11/2/2012 10:27:26 PM)

Everything I've come up with from google so far links back to the article I linked to but here is the video.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oFIz_WfTyk




DomKen -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (11/2/2012 10:41:18 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: lovmuffin

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam


quote:

ORIGINAL: lovmuffin

I would be curious to know what any of the conservatives here think of this potential voter fraud. I just ran across it and I wonder if there is anything to it.


http://www.theblaze.com/stories/have-you-heard-about-spigot-cities-that-may-pump-votes-to-obama/

Maybe if the Kool-Aid drinkers on the Far Right would do the math, they would agree that getting rid of the Electoral College is a good idea. This would totally negate the problem that the Kool-Aid delivery service you cited claims mayyyybe exists.




I thought it was only lefties that drank Koolaid [8D]

I realize the Blaze might lean a little to the right but It would seem like a logical way to commit voter fraud and it's the only place I've seen anything about this. Did it really happen in 2008 and is the potential real enough to effect the election in 2012 ? That's all I want to know. It's a legitimate question. There was a thread on voter fraud some weeks ago but I don't recall reading anything about this.

There is no evidence of any sort of organized vote fraud scheme in the last several decades. The argument in this article boils down to: 'there is no way those inner city people could get their acts together to register to vote and even if they did a bunch of them are so dumb they would fail to cast ballots for the President.' In reality OFA has done exactly what anyone who knew anything about Obama's background would have predicted, I know I did in 2008, that is run a massive voter registration effort in the inner cities across the US.




Hillwilliam -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (11/2/2012 10:43:19 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: lovmuffin

I thought it was only lefties that drank Koolaid [8D]


If you had bothered to read my posts over the last several years, you'd know it's both sides.




lovmuffin -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (11/2/2012 11:15:19 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam


quote:

ORIGINAL: lovmuffin

I thought it was only lefties that drank Koolaid [8D]


If you had bothered to read my posts over the last several years, you'd know it's both sides.



Yes I've read many of them and I get that. I was responding to only your post above and I was kidding around though I'm thinking the koolaid drinking remark originally came from a rightie needling a leftie.




lovmuffin -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (11/2/2012 11:41:40 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

quote:

ORIGINAL: lovmuffin

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam


quote:

ORIGINAL: lovmuffin

I would be curious to know what any of the conservatives here think of this potential voter fraud. I just ran across it and I wonder if there is anything to it.


http://www.theblaze.com/stories/have-you-heard-about-spigot-cities-that-may-pump-votes-to-obama/

Maybe if the Kool-Aid drinkers on the Far Right would do the math, they would agree that getting rid of the Electoral College is a good idea. This would totally negate the problem that the Kool-Aid delivery service you cited claims mayyyybe exists.




I thought it was only lefties that drank Koolaid [8D]

I realize the Blaze might lean a little to the right but It would seem like a logical way to commit voter fraud and it's the only place I've seen anything about this. Did it really happen in 2008 and is the potential real enough to effect the election in 2012 ? That's all I want to know. It's a legitimate question. There was a thread on voter fraud some weeks ago but I don't recall reading anything about this.

There is no evidence of any sort of organized vote fraud scheme in the last several decades. The argument in this article boils down to: 'there is no way those inner city people could get their acts together to register to vote and even if they did a bunch of them are so dumb they would fail to cast ballots for the President.' In reality OFA has done exactly what anyone who knew anything about Obama's background would have predicted, I know I did in 2008, that is run a massive voter registration effort in the inner cities across the US.



According to the article they are bussing these bunches of clueless dumb people in and either telling them how to vote or marking their ballets for them. In the video it was stated they're going into nursing homes and marking and collecting ballets from patients who are totally out of it like people with alsziemers. (Spell check)




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