RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012

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DomYngBlk -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/26/2012 5:47:25 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: servantforuse WI, PA, OH and NC will go to Romney. Even though the Secretary of State in Ohio has tried time and again to fuck with this election it ain't going to matter. Obama will win Ohio. Campaign events are a lot smaller in numbers than Obama's. Since we all know here that it is important turnout will be high. Means curtains for Mittens

DesideriScuri -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/26/2012 5:52:58 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Owner59 "2012: Romney leads in national poll; Obama up in Ohio" Latest polls: Romney leads in another national poll: AP-GFK 47-45% and the gender gap is gone, as Pew first showed. It was 16 points, now it’s a 47-47% tie. States: OH: Time: Obama 49-44% From the Time poll: “The poll makes clear that there are really two races underway in Ohio. On one hand, the two candidates are locked in a dead heat among Ohioans who have not yet voted but who say they intend to, with 45% of respondents supporting the President and 45% preferring his Republican challenger. But Obama has clearly received a boost from Ohio’s early voting period, which began on Oct. 2 and runs through November 5. Among respondents who say they have already voted, Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney, 60% to 30%.” Notice how the cons want to pick and choose what parts they want to believe....... http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/25/14694455-2012-romney-leads-in-national-poll-obama-up-in-ohio?lite I think that's on par with what was expected in Ohio, so this may not have any implications at all. And, the results from today carry no weight, compared to the results when the vote is confirmed after Election Day.

Owner59 -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/26/2012 8:16:36 AM)
Wisconsin just fell from toss-up to leaning Obama. Isn`t that where Paul Ryan lives? http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-wisconsin-president-romney-vs-obama?gem

cloudboy -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/26/2012 8:57:51 AM)
Huffpo reads the polls in favor of Obama. FNC reads them in favor of Romney. If MICH, WIS, OH, PENN go to OBama, then Romney needs to carry COLO, FLA, NH, NC, VA and then then two of the following three states: IO, NH, and NV.

subrob1967 -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/26/2012 10:02:53 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Owner59 Wisconsin just fell from toss-up to leaning Obama. Isn`t that where Paul Ryan lives? http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-wisconsin-president-romney-vs-obama?gem Rasmussen has them tied in Wisconsin. 11 days... Tick tock

Owner59 -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/26/2012 10:19:19 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: subrob1967 quote: ORIGINAL: Owner59 Wisconsin just fell from toss-up to leaning Obama. Isn`t that where Paul Ryan lives? http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-wisconsin-president-romney-vs-obama?gem Rasmussen has them tied in Wisconsin. 11 days... Tick tock 4 days ago.....your clock is busted..... Take the average and the President is ahead and climbing. This is the VP candidate`s OWN state.......remember Scott Walker? It shouldn`t be in toss-up....it shouldn`t even be close..... Wis. should be at the least leaning Romney or hard Romney and they aren`t even close...... They can`t even win in their own home states![:D] It also proves the mitt-mo is no-mo....[:D]

SilverMark -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/26/2012 10:22:26 AM)
Face it, the polls are basically all within the margin of error, and for each that says Romney leads there is another that says Obama wins.... The election hinges on so few people predicting their behavior would be a virtual impossibility at this point.

Owner59 -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/26/2012 10:42:08 AM)
True.... I look for trends....not snapshots. And I as most with veteran annalists,average the high and low numbers. Rassie leans right...they got John Stossel writing articles for them.....most annalist know Rasmussen is right-skewed. The cons are trying to skew/game the gen. averages too,with polls like Rove`s....where all the agreed on toss-up states go Romeny.....including PA, who just put Obama 7 points ahead according to yesterday`s Rassie-poll in PA... In NH, a red state......Rasmussen has the President two points ahead(and rising) today(fresh poll) but Rove has Mitt winning there. By posting the supper skewed polls like Rove`s......the average of all the pollsc also becomes skewed. Today,the Huffpo averages have Mitt at 191 EVs and the President at 270 EVs. I`m keeping my eyes Ohio....

SilverMark -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/26/2012 10:53:40 AM)
I look at most of them on Real Clear Politics, Rasmussen is certainly skewed a bit, but within reason to the others. I have been looking more at the individual states than the overall. I think it is entirely possible we could have a statistical dead heat, with the ECV pushing the winner ahead. Pennsylvania is Obama's North Carolina Romney's, Ohio, Wisc. Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and a few others becoming more important everyday. In Nebraska they give the votes by district, and I heard an argument that statistically the District just East of Omaha, of all places could be a deciding factor....unlike anything I have seen or heard of! I believe nothing remotely connected to Rove....unless it is to what degree he will stoop to have HIS man in the White House....and people wonder why the Democrats compare Romney to Bush!

Owner59 -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/26/2012 11:07:25 AM)
My greatest hope is an Obama electoral vote victory and a huge Romney popular vote victory.......the bigger the margine......... the better. I would love to see Mitt`s poll numbers in red states double......It`s the rise in red-states that explains Mitts rise in the national populate polls. But Mitt`s not getting a rise in swing states....like Ohio......where millions of voters are googling and seeing Mitts "let Detroit go bankrupt" op/ed at the NY Times` website. That letter to the editor, is one of the President`s best and most used attack ads against Romney in Ohio and have spent almost double what Mitt has, on ads there.

DesideriScuri -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/26/2012 2:31:07 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: SilverMark Face it, the polls are basically all within the margin of error, and for each that says Romney leads there is another that says Obama wins.... The election hinges on so few people predicting their behavior would be a virtual impossibility at this point. WHOA! Who called for calm and relaxed sanity?!? WTF is that all about?!? This board is about politics and religion. There is no room for calm, relaxation, sanity or logic! GTFO! [:D]

tazzygirl -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/26/2012 2:36:32 PM)
I have been watching RCP as well. The rest are too skewed one way or the other to get any real feel of how the country may feel. Then again, with each poll, its still less than 2000 people determining how a country with over 300 million are feeling on any particular topic

cloudboy -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/26/2012 7:23:36 PM)
National polls: Mitt Romney has held a slight but persistent lead in national polling since the first debate. As of 9:30 a.m. on Thursday, he’s ahead by 0.7 percent in the Real Clear Politics average of polls, and by 0.2 percent in the Pollster.com tracker. State polls: Barack Obama holds a slight but persistent lead in the battleground states. Real Clear Politics puts him up in Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan — which is more than enough to win the election. Romney is up in Florida, Colorado and North Carolina. Virginia is tied. The Pollster.com list is exactly the same, save for Obama holding slight leads in Colorado and Virginia. Note that in all the polling averages, Obama’s lead in Ohio is larger than Romney’s lead in Florida. Models: At this point, I don’t know of any continuously updated model that shows Romney ahead. Nate SIlver’s model gives Obama a 71 percent chance of winning. Sam Wang’s meta-analysis predicts 293 electoral votes for Obama. Drew Linzer’s Votamatic predicts 332 electoral votes for Obama.

cloudboy -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/27/2012 6:47:25 PM)
538 Electoral College Prediction: 295.4 Obama v. 242.6 Romney Friday's Polling Data: According to 538, OH is no longer a toss up. Friday featured a large volume of swing state polling, including three polls of Ohio, each of which showed Mr. Obama ahead by margins ranging from two to four percentage points. ...it is misinformed to refer to Ohio as a toss-up. Mr. Obama is the favorite there, and because of Ohio’s central position in the Electoral College, he is therefore the overall favorite in the election. Between Ohio and the other battleground states, Mr. Obama held leads in 11 polls on Friday, against four leads for Mitt Romney and two ties. Mr. Romney’s leads came in North Carolina and Florida, two states where the FiveThirtyEight forecast already had him favored.

SternSkipper -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/27/2012 7:52:50 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: servantforuse I'm not sure what clip I saw. I guess we will find out very soon. Pa for Romney.... Depends on how colorblind one is... Better hit the eye doctor.

SternSkipper -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/27/2012 7:54:43 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: tazzygirl Uh huh. [/quote Does ComedyCentral have an electoral map? Maybe he saw that.

SternSkipper -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/27/2012 7:59:42 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Owner59 I Yeah right....cuz Rove said so.....[sm=rofl.gif] Rassie ,in a poll not even 12 hours old,puts Obama 6 points ahead in PA.... Obama`s got the PA-mo......[:D] I got a pamphlet from Rove attacking Warren with complete and utter gibberish. Yesterday. Brown is shitting in his pants to have authorized that one.

cloudboy -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/27/2012 8:12:48 PM)
PA is a 94% chance for Obama. OH is at 76% chance for Obama. COLO and VA stand on shakier ground at about 54% Obama. Long story short: COLO, VA, FLA, and NC to Romney won't win him the election.

Owner59 -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/28/2012 4:48:28 PM)
"Obama Extends Narrow Lead Over Mitt Romney: Poll" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/28/obama-romney-poll_n_2034863.html?utm_hp_ref=politics

subrob1967 -> RE: Polls and Presidential Predictions 2012 (10/28/2012 11:02:34 PM)
quote: I have always been a believer in data telling me the full story. Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008. Politico 8 days... Tick tock

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