Will Trump save the republican party?

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Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/26/2016 2:02:10 PM

Hillwilliam

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This is a simple question with a complex answer. Will Donald Trump save the republican party from itself?
3+ decades ago, Reagan invited Fallwell and his "Immoral Minority" into the Republican party. He thought he needed them to defeat Carter. He didn't. Fast forward 3 decades and the evangelicals run the whole fucking shooting match. Not only are they not republicans in the purest sense of the word, they aren't even followers of Christ.
The republican party has become a thing that only cares about the 3 G's. God, Guns and Gynecology. This is not what existed 30 years ago.
Could Trump change the platform of the party back to the days when it was the GRAND old Party?

ED for capitalization of an H

< Message edited by Hillwilliam -- 2/26/2016 2:04:05 PM >

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/26/2016 2:12:55 PM

Phydeaux

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Interesting question, Hill.

(in reply to Hillwilliam)

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/26/2016 2:14:42 PM

Hillwilliam

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

Interesting question, Hill.

I'm thinking that he will lose but, in losing, he will actually win. Does that make sense?

< Message edited by Hillwilliam -- 2/26/2016 2:18:18 PM >

_____________________________

Kinkier than a cheap garden hose.

Whoever said "Religion is the opiate of the masses" never heard Right Wing talk radio.

Don't blame me, I voted for Gary Johnson.

(in reply to Phydeaux)

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/26/2016 2:48:05 PM

Phydeaux

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I understand what you're saying.

But I think you are underestimating trump, and the republicans.

I view the likelihood as a republican wave at around 35%. I think the chances of a trump victory are 60%. I'd say 55%, but I think there is a significant chance of a Shrillary indictment.

One thing trump, being a more moderate candidate does, is he puts a lot of blue states in play. New York, New Jersey, New Mexico etc. These states being in play will avoid the very very tiny electoral path to victory that Romney had. California and NY combined get a democratic candidate a long ways to election. NY at least will be a state that Hillary has to work for. I judge the likelihoods because

a) democrat enthusiasm is around 25%. Republican enthusiasm is around 55%. Record numbers of voters are turning out to vote for trump; the same is not happening for the democrats. Finally, I believe this forum is far more left than the american mainstream. I believe the intangibles - strongly favor republicans.

Terrorism, the economy, muslim immigration, gitmo, ISIS - I think all of these things strongly favor republicans. The only thing that might help dems is the denouement of ISIS. Climate change will help dems - but its #19 on the top 20 issues.

A fellow here: http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/02/25/donald-trump-supporters-brexit-preference-falsfication-2016-primaries-column/80856410/
wrote an excellent essay on what he calls a preference cascade, and what causes it. I agree with the majority of his analysis.

The part of his analysis I disagree, I call the cheerleader effect. Cheerleaders in highschool come from the popular class. But if enough nerds/jocks/whatevers eget together suddenly that group of unfortunates gets popular enough to sway (temporarily) leaders of the elect to their cause.

I think we are at an inflection point.

< Message edited by Phydeaux -- 2/26/2016 2:54:10 PM >

(in reply to Hillwilliam)

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/26/2016 2:53:43 PM

mnottertail

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*snicker* I've never even had mickey mouse microdot that good.

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/26/2016 3:25:31 PM

dcnovice

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quote:

I think we are at an inflection point.

I initially read this as "infection point" and nodded vigorously in agreement.

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it's never enough to keep up.

JANE WAGNER, THE SEARCH FOR SIGNS OF
INTELLIGENT LIFE IN THE UNIVERSE

(in reply to Phydeaux)

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/26/2016 4:43:59 PM

subrob1967

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Fuck no! Trump isn't a conservative, and what he'll do is tear the party apart, and we'll see the strict conservatives and evangelicals go to the right while the moderates and current elected Republicans maintain the middle left.

My guess is Trump will win the election this year, but once everyone see's his true colors the long knives will come out, and we'll have a Dem President in 2020.

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/26/2016 5:38:35 PM

dcnovice

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quote:

My guess is Trump will win the election this year, but once everyone see's his true colors the long knives will come out,

I've been hoping and praying folks will see his true colors--which, let's face it, aren't exactly hidden--long before November.

What scares me about Trump isn't so much the man himself--loons happen--but his embrace by millions of Americans.

_____________________________

No matter how cynical you become,
it's never enough to keep up.

JANE WAGNER, THE SEARCH FOR SIGNS OF
INTELLIGENT LIFE IN THE UNIVERSE

(in reply to subrob1967)

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/26/2016 7:38:04 PM

MrRodgers

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I think if anything the whole repub political landscape has yet to form for 2016 and if you are correct Phy, the pres. race could be a nail biter.

However, with the repubs going so blatantly public over the SCOTUS nominee and the repub debates resembling something closer to Trump pep rally or belch fest, the effects of which...are still an unknown.

Otherwise Trump could ruin/splinter the repubs enough that the party may no longer be able to demographically form any truly moving or effective influence.

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/26/2016 8:22:24 PM

stef

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quote:

ORIGINAL: subrob1967

My guess is Trump will win the election this year, but once everyone see's his true colors the long knives will come out, and we'll have a Dem President in 2020.

Anyone who hasn't seen his true colors yet likely has their head in a warm dark location that blocks their vision.

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/26/2016 9:34:20 PM

BamaD

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

Interesting question, Hill.

I'm thinking that he will lose but, in losing, he will actually win. Does that make sense?

If he loses Hillary will get to appoint 2-3 Supreme Court Justices who consider the constitution a serier of obsolete suggestions.
We already have one Justice who has ruled based on European presidence and another who advised the Egyptians to modle their constitution after South Africa as it is better than ours. In 4 years she can do irreeprable harm.

His might "win" as in change the party, but at what cost.

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/26/2016 11:18:15 PM

Phydeaux

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers

I think if anything the whole repub political landscape has yet to form for 2016 and if you are correct Phy, the pres. race could be a nail biter.

However, with the repubs going so blatantly public over the SCOTUS nominee and the repub debates resembling something closer to Trump pep rally or belch fest, the effects of which...are still an unknown.

Otherwise Trump could ruin/splinter the repubs enough that the party may no longer be able to demographically form any truly moving or effective influence.

I agree. The republicans shot themselves in the foot. As I said quite a bit ago - best to say nothing. Hold a couple of weeks of hearings and at the end of it say - no thank you. You're a great guy, we appreciate the time but we find you inappropriate to the senate because you wish x. Pick some spurious, inconsequential reason, NOT abortion.

There's always the chance obama will then appoint someone pro X. And you do the same thing. Y. But I think the net effect of this will be... Nothing.

I mean .. seriously. A lot of people don't like clinton - her unfavorables are worse than trump. She has the drip of an indictment over her. - And she's spent a lot of money already - whereas trump hasn't even touched donations.

I am 85% sure that the situation will be decided supertuesday. Trump / Hillary.

(in reply to MrRodgers)

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/27/2016 12:53:08 AM

KenDckey

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I am beginning to believe that Trump is the IED on both parties. I think much of his popularity is saying what many believe. He is not a party insider. He pisses off both parties, which will cause them to work together quite possibly. People are tired of the status quo. He knows enough about the economy to make a boat load of cash. He knows enough about the world to make some more cash. He is curse and blunt unlike most politicians. His error rate on what he says is on par or just a little higher than any other politiian which won't give you a straight answer, but when he does, it is guaranteed to piss someone off. I wouldn't be surprised to see him draft either Carson (another political outsider) or Sanders (who is a left leaning independent) as his running mate (Hilary's army of super delegates just about have her nomination secured),

(in reply to Phydeaux)

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/27/2016 5:58:16 AM

Hillwilliam

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quote:

ORIGINAL: subrob1967

Fuck no! Trump isn't a conservative, and what he'll do is tear the party

The party needs to be torn apart and rebuilt with people who believe in the WHOLE Constitution and not just Article 2.
The evangelicals need their ass sent back to their backwoods churches and told to SIT, STAY and STFU.

Then the Republican party will once again be the GRAND old party.

_____________________________

Kinkier than a cheap garden hose.

Whoever said "Religion is the opiate of the masses" never heard Right Wing talk radio.

Don't blame me, I voted for Gary Johnson.

(in reply to subrob1967)

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/27/2016 8:15:51 AM

Phydeaux

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Hill,

The republican party started as an abolitionist party. It started because of the religious faiths of its members. To think anything other than that is to misread history.
And there's nothing wrong with evangelicals.

over the years, the republicans were a counterweight to a corrupt democrat regime.

I would say the establishment wing of the republican party is where they lost their way.

(in reply to Hillwilliam)

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/27/2016 9:16:58 AM

mnottertail

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Uh, fuck no. It did not. The republican party, started on the principle that slavery should not be extended to the new states. Perifuckingod. The Whigs, your religious principles guys had imploded, just like the nutsuckers are doing today. Democrats interested in that like principle joined the republican party while whigs not so inclined switched to democrat. Abolitionists, a small sect (Seward and the like, not many) were called Radical republicans, and those were the guys that made the republican party honorable. Of course the nutsuckers drove it immediately into dishonorable dealing. The same progressives you eschew in your toiletlicking nutsuckerism today made that party. They are gone, kicked out and sidelined, rinos.

Unfortunately, the republican party was not large enough with just that principle, so they hoodwinked the know-nothings, the mudsillers, the greasy mechanics, the butternuts, and the old whigs into the party, through deception and platitudes and vagarities that avoided the issues held dear by those fucking unamerican freaks, but they were just for numbers, and never meant to have their views included in reality. But now those freaks are running the party, and just like puritans and the whigs, imploding in their cockgargling imbecility.

< Message edited by mnottertail -- 2/27/2016 9:21:37 AM >

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Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/27/2016 9:30:36 AM

dcnovice

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FR

Interesting read/listen.

I think the same-sex marriage ruling by the Supreme Court last June was a watershed moment for evangelical Christians. I think in a strange way, that same-sex marriage ruling actually made evangelicals more open to a secular candidate like Donald Trump and here's why. I think many evangelicals have come to the conclusion we can no longer depend upon government to uphold traditional biblical values. Let's just let government solve practical problems like immigration, the economy and national security. And if that's all we're looking for government to do, then we don't need a spiritual giant in the White House. We need a strong leader and a problem solver, hence many Christians are open to a secular candidate like Donald Trump.

http://www.npr.org/2016/02/25/468149440/why-do-evangelicals-support-donald-trump-a-pastor-explains

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No matter how cynical you become,
it's never enough to keep up.

JANE WAGNER, THE SEARCH FOR SIGNS OF
INTELLIGENT LIFE IN THE UNIVERSE

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/27/2016 10:52:46 AM

Musicmystery

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We're not SUPPOSED to rely on government to uphold traditional biblical values (whatever that means). That's because we don't live in a theocracy.

Maybe we should teach THAT along with evolution.

(in reply to dcnovice)

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/27/2016 2:48:54 PM

tj444

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How can someone who insults (especially with such extreme & biting vigor) someone different every week save a party? or America?
Seriously, he is tapping into the anti-immigration sentiment yet his Florida club (since 2010) has employed only 17 Americans (300 American applicants tho) out of the hundreds of hired Club employees, making good use of guest workers from Romania, etc... 500 guest worker visa applications.. (or maybe its just Mexican/Hispanic guest workers he dont like?..

) This from a dude that says he will "bring jobs back to America" if he is elected... Its time for voters to stop listening to what he is saying (he will say anything he thinks y'all wanna hear) and start watching what he is actually doing.. Actions speak louder than words, they say.. Wasnt it bad enough when all those big corps sent jobs to China, India, etc? now they are brazenly giving your American job in America to guest workers, to work here in your back yard..
When are American voters gonna wake up??? You're voting yourself out of a job!!!...

eta- read it and weep.. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/26/us/politics/donald-trump-taps-foreign-work-force-for-his-florida-club.html?_r=0

< Message edited by tj444 -- 2/27/2016 2:56:52 PM >

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RE: Will Trump save the republican party? - 2/27/2016 4:28:49 PM

Hillwilliam

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444

How can someone who insults (especially with such extreme & biting vigor) someone different every week save a party?

He will save it by utterly destroying it and forcing a total ground up rebuild.

_____________________________

Kinkier than a cheap garden hose.

Whoever said "Religion is the opiate of the masses" never heard Right Wing talk radio.

Don't blame me, I voted for Gary Johnson.

(in reply to tj444)

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