RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (Full Version)

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tazzygirl -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/22/2011 5:25:53 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Miserlou

i'm kind of saddened that this could be argued for 15 pages.


ah my dear... prepare to be deeply depressed.



samboct -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/22/2011 3:19:19 PM)

Kalikshama

I'm going to bank on a bit of reservoir of good will towards each other here (I'm not angry with you and I hope you can forgive an honest difference of opinion) and I'm going to try a different tack.

Let's posit for the moment that the statistics that you cited on page 1 are correct- that one in five college women will be sexually assaulted- i.e. that rape is widely and massively under reported. I've been wrong in saying that the number of rapes is under reported at 2x to 5x- the reality is that rape is far more prevalent which I think is the point that you and some others have been trying to make. Let's posit that the FBI definition of rape used in Clery reporting is correct- the problem is that women in relationships with men are excluded. Or maybe the FBI definition is too restrictive and we should use Cheri's definition? Your choice- I'm OK for the purposes here of either one.

I think that's been the point of some of the rape statistics I've seen- that women living with men get raped by the men they live with- and if we include those rapes, the total number of rapes should be much, much higher. And we'll also posit that Likos is accurate in terms of his quantification that after interviewing 2000 men, one in 17 is a rapist.

So here's the question- what do we do now? A further posit- that once we've acknowledged the statistics are accurate, it becomes much easier to report a rape, women no longer feel like they're getting raped twice- once by their attacker, and once by the legal system, and the rate of convictions and raoes reported goes up- way up. The only way we deal with rapists now is that we imprison them. Well, if Likos is correct, we're going to need to accommodate some 8 million more men or so in our current prison system. There can be some discussion about how many millions- but it's in the millions.

What happens when these men come out? Are we going to be safer? Or are we creating more criminals? Remember that the prison system does serve as a means of deterrence for law abiding folks to not commit crimes, but given rates of recidivism, prisons largely teach people how to become better criminals. So the more people we put in jail, the more criminals we create. If we put more rapists together, well, they're going to teach others how to rape more effectively. And of course, the innocent men who get swept into this will also be taught how to rape and commit other crimes. If you think I'm joking- look what happens to people who get put in jail for smoking pot- by the time they come out, they're a hardened criminal. Yes, I know- raping someone is very different and needs to be punished compared to smoking pot which shouldn't be punished. But I think we have to assume that once we imprison someone for rape, the likelihood of them becoming a productive member of society is a hell of a lot lower.

How can we pay for it? Already in Cali, prisons account for about the same chunk of the budget as education- given the massive expansion we're talking about here, prison costs are are going to more than double and our economy is already in deep trouble. And the more people you put in jail, the steeper the downward economic spiral.

Are you sure you want to create a massive new criminal class? Or should we try and come up with a different way to deal with women in abusive relationships- one that doesn't criminalize their partners?

I grant you, this is philosophically and morally incorrect- that the hard line of Cheri's is probably the most moral- but I think it's also the most destructive to our society as a whole.

Sam



tazzygirl -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/22/2011 3:59:47 PM)

quote:

So here's the question- what do we do now? A further posit- that once we've acknowledged the statistics are accurate, it becomes much easier to report a rape, women no longer feel like they're getting raped twice- once by their attacker, and once by the legal system, and the rate of convictions and raoes reported goes up- way up. The only way we deal with rapists now is that we imprison them. Well, if Likos is correct, we're going to need to accommodate some 8 million more men or so in our current prison system. There can be some discussion about how many millions- but it's in the millions.


I dont think an automatic jail sentence is the answer for every case of rape. Could it be a misunderstanding, as in your case? Or course. Sensitivity training may be in order, learning how to read body language, learning how to actively listen and not just with the ears. As a pre-trial intervention, I can see the benefits to both the men and society. I can also see the benefit of clearing their record, with the stipulation that if they are ever brought into court again for that charge, the old charge can be revisited as evidence.

Violent rape... crime and jail. Period. Incest, same. Statutory rape, many states are already revisiting that charge. Remember the case in georgia....

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2004-05-03-teen-sex-charge_x.htm

Definitely over kill. Thankfully the laws in georgia have changed.

quote:

Are you sure you want to create a massive new criminal class? Or should we try and come up with a different way to deal with women in abusive relationships- one that doesn't criminalize their partners?

I grant you, this is philosophically and morally incorrect- that the hard line of Cheri's is probably the most moral- but I think it's also the most destructive to our society as a whole.


I dont believe its a new criminal class. I do believe there are alternatives. One is admitting to the problem. Pre-trial intervention doesnt work if you continually deny you did anything wrong. There are laws on the books to handle some of these to keep them out of jail. But they have to want to seek that help.




samboct -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/22/2011 4:41:41 PM)

Tazzy

Do you play the lottery too? Because your math skills are sadly lacking here...



tazzygirl -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/22/2011 5:29:50 PM)

In what way?



samboct -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/22/2011 5:44:03 PM)

All right I'll spell it out for you...

From this reference here- a bit dated, but it looks like the stats don't change that much over the years:

http://www.mincava.umn.edu/documents/sexoff/sexoff.html


The law enforcement response

In 1995 the number of forcible rapes reported to the police nationwide was 97,460, the lowest total since 1989.

The highest rate of forcible rape recorded by law enforcement agencies since 1976 was in 1992--84 per 100,000 women, or about 1 forcible rape for every 1,200 women. By 1995 the rate had decreased over 14%.

In 1995 law enforcement agencies reported that about half of all reported forcible rapes were cleared by an arrest--an estimated 34,650 arrests for forcible rape. There were 94,500 arrests for other sex offenses.

The per capita rate of arrest for forcible rape or sexual assault in 1995, 50.3 per 100,000 residents, was the same as that in 1983.

Federal statistical series obtaining data on arrested or convicted persons--Uniform Crime Reports, National Judicial Reporting Program, and National Corrections Reporting Program--show a remarkable similarity in the characteristics of those categorized as rapists: 99 in 100 are male, 6 in 10 are white, and the average age is the early thirties.

Pretrial release and adjudication of rape offenders

About half of rape defendants are released prior to trial. Among those released, half had to post a financial bond. The median bond amount was $23,500.

About 1 in 20 filings for a violent felony in the 75 largest counties in 1992 was for rape.

In 1992 an estimated 21,655 felony defendants nationwide were convicted of rape; 8 in 10 had pleaded guilty.

Over two-thirds of convicted rape defendants received a prison sentence.

For rape defendants sentenced to prison, the average term imposed was just under 14 years. About 2% of convicted rapists received life sentences.

Corrections and the convicted sex offender

On a given day about 234,000 offenders convicted of rape or sexual assault are under the care, custody, or control of corrections agencies. About 60% of these sex offenders are under conditional supervision in the community.

Rape and sexual assault offenders account for just under 5% of the total correctional population in the United States:

Among 906,000 offenders confined in State prisons in 1994, 88,000, or 9.7%, were violent sex offenders.

Since 1980 the average annual growth in the number of prisoners has been about 7.6%. The number of prisoners sentenced for violent sexual assault other than rape increased by an annual average of nearly 15%--faster than any other category of violent crime and faster than all other categories except drug trafficking.

While the average sentence of convicted rapists released from State prisons has remained stable at about 10 years, the average time served has increased from about 3 years to about 5 years; for those released after serving time for sexual assault, the sentence has been a stable 6 years, and the average time served grew about 6 months to just under 3 years.

Rapists and sexual assaulters serving time in State prisons were less likely to have had a prior conviction history or a history of violence than other incarcerated violent offenders, though they were substantially more likely to have had a history of convictions for violent sex offenses.

Sexual assault offenders were substantially more likely than any other category of offenders to report having experienced physical or sexual abuse while growing up.

Violent sex offenders were substantially less likely than other violent offenders to have committed their crime with a weapon; however, rapists were about as likely as all violent offenders to report having used a knife.

In two 3-year BJS follow-ups of samples of felons placed on probation and of felons released from prison, rapists had a lower rate of rearrest for a new violent felony than most other categories of offenders convicted of violence. Yet, rapists were more likely than others to be re-arrested for a new rape.

Please note the bolded line-

Now- as has been discussed in this thread- and a number of posters have jumped all over me for- the number of reported rapes is too low. The statistics posted by Kalikshama and some of the references I've posted have shown that if the current rate is 10 rapes at an institution like UMass that get reported- the actual number is 100X. i.e, there should be 1,000 rapes reported.

In round numbers, there are about 100,000 men incarcerated for rape- multiply it by 100 and you get 10 million. If that doesn't require a massive expansion of our prison system- I don't know what does.

I've also been accused of trivializing rape- but it seems that your suggestion that rapists get some form of counseling- well, it's pretty laughable, since the average conviction for rape yields a sentence of 14 years. In short- if someone is actually convicted of rape, they face a very stiff penalty in our current penal system. What percentage of rapists do you think just deserve some form of counseling?

Sam



tazzygirl -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/22/2011 5:49:54 PM)

Ok, maybe adding will help because you have still lost me...



samboct -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/23/2011 6:43:40 AM)

Ah the wonders of google....

OK- I just found this site that has a bunch of articles that make many of the same points I have- with a lot more scholarship behind them! The other thing is that a bunch of these articles are 20 years old. Here: http://falserapesociety.blogspot.com/

In terms of the scare tactics of campus rape statistics:

http://reason.com/assets/db/13146418863282.pdf

Kalikshama et al- on the false rape claim, i.e. that only 2% of rapes are false accusations- similar to other crimes- well, not quite....

http://llr.lls.edu/volumes/v33-issue3/greer.pdf

It seems that a number of posters here think that the frat should be closed. I think this is an over reaction- and now I've got some numbers to back up my assertion- here's why.

1) Come up with the number of reported rapes on the U Vermont campus in the last several years.
2) Kalikshama's link showing that this frat was in disciplinary trouble dates back to 1993- a time when most of its members probably were in diapers. How does this become a culture of misogyny- and yet have no problems till now? How is this culture transmitted from 1993 to present day?
3) The prevalence of convicted rapists amongst us- according to the link posted in a previous post- is about 50 in 100,000. Let's say that this is off by a factor of 10- i.e. its too low (which I think is wrong- I suspect a factor of 3-5 is closer to reality but I'm basing this on the commonly sited statistic that only about 20% of rapes are reported)- well, that bumps the percentage up to 5 in 1,000 or 0.5 in a 100. That means that there's less than one chance in a hundred that whoever wrote this admittedly nasty poll, would ever engage in a rape.
4) Disciplining the entire frat over the actions of an individual only makes sense if there was a significant chance that other members of the frat would take place in the crime of rape. Well, let's say a chance of 0.005 x 0.005 gets us to 2.5 E-6 or 2.5 chances in a million- that TWO members would be rapists. Seems to me that we've thrown out the principle of individual justice and are collectively punishing the innocent- i.e. the frat members who took no part in this poll- or if they read it- simply ignored as something in bad taste- i.e. bad joke.
5) What happened to the right of privacy? If this poll were circulated on campus- well, then discipling the frat makes sense. But if it's a drunken joke by a couple of guys in the basement? They're not on school property-and it doesn't seem at this point that they intended to circulate this poll, because nobody's put it up on the internet yet- and if there were a bunch of copies- well, wouldn't it be making the rounds? Should we publish people's diaries as well if they contain threats to others?
6) Are peoples fears sufficient reason to trample on our laws and due process? It seems that the university president and board has thought so as well as a number of posters here- but the facts that have been revealed to date don't show anything that would justify these actions. It's possible that if additional facts come to light- this judgement would change- but I still haven't seen anything that justifies closing down the frat- there's no evidence that many frat members knew of this poll, or it's anything more than something scribbled as a drunken joke in a basement.

Sam



tazzygirl -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/23/2011 7:08:02 AM)

quote:

I've also been accused of trivializing rape- but it seems that your suggestion that rapists get some form of counseling- well, it's pretty laughable, since the average conviction for rape yields a sentence of 14 years. In short- if someone is actually convicted of rape, they face a very stiff penalty in our current penal system. What percentage of rapists do you think just deserve some form of counseling?

Sam




When you can segment out the violent rapists, incest and statutory rapists from your list of percentages, then you will have your answer of those who can benefit from pretrial intervention.

On a given day about 234,000 offenders convicted of rape or sexual assault are under the care, custody, or control of corrections agencies. About 60% of these sex offenders are under conditional supervision in the community.

How many of these are violent rapists and how many of these are a first time offence and bad decision from the night of drinking too much. Your numbers dont bother to separate the convictions.

Example... the young man from Georgia.



tazzygirl -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/23/2011 7:10:44 AM)

quote:

In terms of the scare tactics of campus rape statistics:

http://reason.com/assets/db/13146418863282.pdf


1990 report.



samboct -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/23/2011 7:15:43 AM)

Geez Tazzy- can you read???? And is simple arithmetic beyond you????


Among 906,000 offenders confined in State prisons in 1994, 88,000, or 9.7%, were violent sex offenders. That would imply that the remainder of the 234,000, i.e. 146,000 are not confined to prison since they were found guilty -(or plea bargained) to a lesser offense.

Sam



barelynangel -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/23/2011 7:18:51 AM)

If they were plea bargained, then you really don't know if the more harsh charges were based upon violence of the crime.

Just saying, when i worked for the prosecuting office, there were many times aggravated assault was pled down to assault.



tiggerspoohbear -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/23/2011 7:25:18 AM)

I'm gonna put it this way, don't give a good goddamn about statistics, until you're the one being raped, none of it matters. And it's happened to me twice, so quote away, it doesn't change the fact that I WAS raped, that it was the scariest thing and that I wouldn't wish it on my own worst enemy. It's hell to live through, and then you add the nightmares, and the anxiety attacks, and the panic attacks, well there ya go.

I was also date-raped back in the late 70's by someone I'd known since kindergarten, last thing I thought was going to happen. And an attempted rape where I was able to make good on my escape. So quote away all the farkin statistics you want, it nowhere near comes close to what I went through and many other women go through every single damned day of the year.



samboct -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/23/2011 7:55:30 AM)

Tigger

I'm sorry that you've had the horrible human experiences that statistics can mask. As Stalin infamously pointed out- "A child killed crossing a street- that is a tragedy. A million liquidated- that is a statistic." Well, he would know, as few others would. There is nothing I can say or do that will lessen your tragedy. However, my goal here is to prevent a different tragedy- the tarring of young students who had no responsibility for the authorship of what may have been serious- or may have been a prank.

Sam



barelynangel -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/23/2011 7:59:14 AM)

Samboct, you would be better off checking the statistics of crimes -- not the crime someone was sent to prison for.   Until you do, your statistics map is inaccurate as to what you are trying to prove.

angel



samboct -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/23/2011 8:24:43 AM)

Angel

Apparently you and Tazzy went to the same school.

"The per capita rate of arrest for forcible rape or sexual assault in 1995, 50.3 per 100,000 residents, was the same as that in 1983."

That's arrest-not conviction.

Sam



barelynangel -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/23/2011 8:50:44 AM)

I have no clue what Tazzy has been saying, all i know is i WORKED in the prosecutor's office, i know statistics are skewed based upon a whole slew of information.

Also, you really think statistics of 15 years ago matter?  Sorry, no.  Date rape and drug related rapes are a whole new ballgame in this day and age.

You know, you really may want to volunteer in a rape crisis center or go sit in a couple of the trials etc.  I know you want to deal with the distance of statistics that are capable of being skewed based on the perspective of what you are seeking to define, but get your hands dirty man -- dig into the actuality and you may find your mentality is very distanced from the reality.

When you have to tell a woman that she has to get up in front of her attacker, she has to tell a public courtroom her story, she has to be bombarded with irrelevant questions by the defense attorney and all the while see the guy who raped her, and then maybe having to sit through a verdict finding him not guilt of specific charges -- Which doesn't mean he is INNOCENT, it's just that the jury could not beyond a reasonable doubt say he was guilty.

Sam, it's easy to throw out numbers instead of being down in the gist of the crime itself and the repercussions of same on the victims.  I get it.   But in the end, until you are down and involved with the REALITY of the crime, your statistics are just that statistics, numbers, not reality.

But you keep thinking your statistics mean something -- angel



samboct -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/23/2011 9:05:38 AM)

Yes- angel- because in this case- the statistics represent science- and what you've suggested- represents anecdote. Nor do I think 20 year old statistics are irrelevant because there's very little to suggest that the prevalence of rape has varied that much over the years- same as murder statistics or other violent crime.

The understanding of the horror of rape- you're right, get your "hands dirty" as you put it. And as I mentioned earlier-as a college student, I did volunteer my time driving a van.

But to figure out what policy prescriptions to employ? For that you need statistics, as cold hearted as that seems because its the only way to tell whether or not you're making headway. Someone loses his job, house, family etc. That's a tragedy. Do we agree to raise taxes on the basis of an individual case? Or do we agree to raise taxes when we realize that this individual tragedy is taking place across millions of families?

As I've noted before- if what posters such as Tazzy, TJ, Kalikshama et al think is true- that rape is wildly under reported- well, I'm pointing out the costs of dealing with the what they think is the magnitude of the problem. I think they're wrong- that there have been scare reports based on shoddy science- and if we would in fact serve the women who have been raped in a better fashion by not trivializing the event by saying it happens so commonly. Here's a link that shows this a bit more eloquently than I just did :

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2010/january/012210gruber.html


Sam



LaTigresse -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/23/2011 9:07:24 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: barelynangel

I have no clue what Tazzy has been saying, all i know is i WORKED in the prosecutor's office, i know statistics are skewed based upon a whole slew of information.

Also, you really think statistics of 15 years ago matter?  Sorry, no.  Date rape and drug related rapes are a whole new ballgame in this day and age.

You know, you really may want to volunteer in a rape crisis center or go sit in a couple of the trials etc.  I know you want to deal with the distance of statistics that are capable of being skewed based on the perspective of what you are seeking to define, but get your hands dirty man -- dig into the actuality and you may find your mentality is very distanced from the reality.

When you have to tell a woman that she has to get up in front of her attacker, she has to tell a public courtroom her story, she has to be bombarded with irrelevant questions by the defense attorney and all the while see the guy who raped her, and then maybe having to sit through a verdict finding him not guilt of specific charges -- Which doesn't mean he is INNOCENT, it's just that the jury could not beyond a reasonable doubt say he was guilty.

Sam, it's easy to throw out numbers instead of being down in the gist of the crime itself and the repercussions of same on the victims.  I get it.   But in the end, until you are down and involved with the REALITY of the crime, your statistics are just that statistics, numbers, not reality.

But you keep thinking your statistics mean something -- angel


And this is what I keep thinking when I read your posts Sam. Seriously, as a woman, your statistics mean jack shit. You may think they are important but to me and every woman I know, your numbers prattle is just offensive prattle. It's trivializing the trauma. You have no idea the visceral reaction your words create in many women reading them.

And I've never been raped.



samboct -> RE: Name who you would like to rape on campus (12/23/2011 9:14:55 AM)

"And this is what I keep thinking when I read your posts Sam. Seriously, as a woman, your statistics mean jack shit."

Way to go LaT. My response is that since when did women become incapable of understanding the mathematics of social change? Should women be treated in ways that spare their "delicate sensibilities"? Or should statistics on rape not be gathered because women know what's right regardless of the facts found by the statistics? Or is their some female chauvinism going on here- that only women have the right to weigh in on a discussion about rape?

Sam



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