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RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 6:06:03 AM   
leonine


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri

quote:

ORIGINAL: dcnovice
quote:

Really? I think you've read too much into it, DC. I'm not saying that AGW is the same as Earth-centric views of the universe. I'm saying that there are times when the "consensus" of opinions is wrong. Isn't that correct?

But you're ignoring the key question of the bases of those opinions. It's not surprising that unlettered, unscientific people held an opinion different from what Galileo concluded after using cutting-edge (for its time) technology. Comparing that opinion divide with the breakdown of research-based results in peer-reviewed journals is nonsense.


I did acknowledge the inaccuracies of my example.

Yes. I was incorrect in my example.

The point, however, was made that scientific consensus isn't always right.



No, actually you made a much more accurate point that you didn't intend.

The popular concensus was probably wrong about geocentricity. (We don't have much record of what the average serf thought, but if he though about the question at all he probably took geocentricity for granted.) But for most of history the scientific concensus was divided between heliocentricity and geocentricity.

Geo was supported by the majority at first, not because people were dumb, but because the data were too fuzzy to distinguish between them, and in the absence of hard facts geo was the simpler hypothesis. So in terms of the information available at the time, the concensus was right. Geo calculations were good enough to predict eclipses and tell you when Venus would rise, so there was no need to assume something that didn't agree with common sense.

But the more accurate astronomy became, the more difficult it was to do accurate calculations in the geocentric model. When Kepler published his heliocentric model, he explicitly said that he didn't claim it represented the real world, it was just a useful tool: elipses round the sun made for far simpler calculations than epicycles on epicycles on epicycles on epicycles round the world. But since the math did work, and the data fit, the concensus came around to heliocentricity. Political interference by the Church was a far less important factor than usually imagined: the popular story of Galileo the martyr for Truth was pretty much invented in the 19th Century, based on a much more complicated and nuanced real event.

This is a textbook case in the study of scientific revolutions, but it's always completely misreported in popular accounts as a clash between superstition and rationalism. It's also a pretty good parallel for the rise of AGW.

In the '70s when the theory was first presented it was a crank theory, because the data to support it wasn't there. (There was as much support for the Ice Age theory, which sank without trace in the years that followed.) But as the data accumulated over the decades, the concensus came around and AGW became the orthodoxy. This is why they don't change their minds back as soon as you point out a glacier that's not melting as fast as the others or a blip in the temperature trend. They've already seen forty years of confirmation data which you haven't.

This is the thing political thinkers cannot understand about scientists. For the most part, they don't change their minds because someone makes compelling speeches or writes impressive books, or because of popular opinion or party doctrine. They change their minds because new evidence emerges, which is the last thing a politician worries about.

_____________________________

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(in reply to DesideriScuri)
Profile   Post #: 121
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 10:44:05 AM   
Phydeaux


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux


Uh, no.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Passage

A few in 2012.
Perhaps a dozen in 2009, with two cruise ships

A cruise ship in 2007
A couple in 2003
one in 2001
The MS explorer (cruise ship) in 1984
Coast guard ship in 1957 (not an icebreaker)

A variety of steel hulled, and ice tolerant ships have made it in other years.

Point is, its not the first time the waters were navigable. I think the scarcity of points speaks more to a lack of desire and lack of attention previously than any real AGW trend.


That's right. According to YOUR source, it has been traversed in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012.
That's every recent summer.

I said dozens of SAILORS, not ships. Please learn the difference.

Here's the point.

Explorers started looking for the NWP in 1497

They were blocked by ICE

Finally, one of the greatest polar explorers of all time made it in THREE YEARS because of, you guessed it, ice.

1n 69, a specially reinforced tanker made it thru with the help of FOUR icebreakers.

Now, recreational sailors make the trip for fun because there's less.....wait for it.....ice

The stuff that blocked human efforts and trade for over 5 centuries is now gone for a significant time every year.

I never said this is the first time the waters were navigable, that was technically the 03-06 trip

I said this is the first time that it is routinely navigable as seen by recreational sailors making the trip.


Your words were "Now, it's done every summer by dozens of amateurs in pleasure boats." Please have some intellectual honesty. That simply isn't true.

Specially built and /or inflatable boats that can go over ice don't count. They are, for the most part, neither amateurs nor pleasure boats.

The dates that were sailed are the dates indicated. A few (3?) in 2012, and perhaps a dozen in 2009.

Since it was 9 boats, you provide no backup to say it was dozens of sailors either. It could be as few as.. 9.

None in 2010, 2011, 2013.

So, it isn't every summer, it isn't dozens, it isn't routine, it isn't amateurs, and it isn't pleasure boats. Other than that your statement is perfectly accurate.

But, more to the point, you pointed to it as breathless evidence of AGW, ignoring the fact that a cruise ship did it in 1986.

If you refer back to my graph of temperature distributions over the last hundreds of thousands of years, you can see that temperatures seem to vary on a cycle.

You have no evidence to suggest that the temperature variation that we are seeing now is anything other than the natural variation that has occurred.





(in reply to Hillwilliam)
Profile   Post #: 122
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 12:30:05 PM   
Hillwilliam


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux


Your words were "Now, it's done every summer by dozens of amateurs in pleasure boats." Please have some intellectual honesty. That simply isn't true.

Specially built and /or inflatable boats that can go over ice don't count. They are, for the most part, neither amateurs nor pleasure boats.

The dates that were sailed are the dates indicated. A few (3?) in 2012, and perhaps a dozen in 2009.

Since it was 9 boats, you provide no backup to say it was dozens of sailors either. It could be as few as.. 9.

None in 2010, 2011, 2013.

So, it isn't every summer, it isn't dozens, it isn't routine, it isn't amateurs, and it isn't pleasure boats. Other than that your statement is perfectly accurate.

But, more to the point, you pointed to it as breathless evidence of AGW, ignoring the fact that a cruise ship did it in 1986.

If you refer back to my graph of temperature distributions over the last hundreds of thousands of years, you can see that temperatures seem to vary on a cycle.

You have no evidence to suggest that the temperature variation that we are seeing now is anything other than the natural variation that has occurred.






You keep posting BS and I'll keep shooting it down.

I'll post this link AGAIN from cruising world.

http://www.cruisingworld.com/people/passage-notes/northwest-passage-routes-made-passable

"In the summer of 2012 alone, 18 private yachts (private yachts are pleasure boats), 2 cruise ships and a tanker made it thru."

"From 2007 to 2012, with passable routes, 75 transits of the Northwest Passage took place"

That's for a route that was totally impassable for over 400 years and then only via either multi year voyages or with an icebreaker/special purpose ship.

Your claim of none in 2013? Untrue as usual. I even have a picture of one of the boats finishing.

http://northwestpassage2013.blogspot.com/





http://www.northwestpassage2010.blogspot.com/

None made it in 2010? Wrong again.
So, yes, it is amateurs, it is pleasure boats and it is dozens of individuals.

They're even attempting the passage in tandem kayaks and rowboats.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Hillwilliam -- 9/11/2013 12:39:03 PM >

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Profile   Post #: 123
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 12:34:59 PM   
Yachtie


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

So, it isn't every summer, it isn't dozens, it isn't routine, it isn't amateurs, and it isn't pleasure boats.



No, not amateurs. Seasoned sailors. Pleasure boats? Why, yes indeed. Blue water sailing craft are pleasure boats of a high caliber. And doing the NWP would quite the pleasure, if even from a technical stance.

Here is the site for Blue Planet Odyssey, which includes the NWP.


< Message edited by Yachtie -- 9/11/2013 12:36:40 PM >

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Profile   Post #: 124
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 12:42:46 PM   
Hillwilliam


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

So, it isn't every summer, it isn't dozens, it isn't routine, it isn't amateurs, and it isn't pleasure boats.



No, not amateurs. Seasoned sailors. Pleasure boats? Why, yes indeed. Blue water sailing craft are pleasure boats of a high caliber. And doing the NWP would quite the pleasure, if even from a technical stance.

Here is the site for Blue Planet Odyssey, which includes the NWP.


Are they professionals?

If they're not being paid, they are amateurs.

Oceangoing pleasure boats doesn't mean flimsy. Some of them cost in the millions. They're still skilled amateurs on pleasure boats.

The point is that something that was impossible for 5 centuries is now possible for a skilled amateur captain and crew. A single season transit of the NWP.

ETA, I have a feeling that if you got a chance to crew on one of those boats, you'd be all over it.

< Message edited by Hillwilliam -- 9/11/2013 12:43:56 PM >

_____________________________

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Whoever said "Religion is the opiate of the masses" never heard Right Wing talk radio.

Don't blame me, I voted for Gary Johnson.

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Profile   Post #: 125
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 12:53:56 PM   
Yachtie


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam


quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

So, it isn't every summer, it isn't dozens, it isn't routine, it isn't amateurs, and it isn't pleasure boats.



No, not amateurs. Seasoned sailors. Pleasure boats? Why, yes indeed. Blue water sailing craft are pleasure boats of a high caliber. And doing the NWP would quite the pleasure, if even from a technical stance.

Here is the site for Blue Planet Odyssey, which includes the NWP.


Are they professionals?

If they're not being paid, they are amateurs.

Oceangoing pleasure boats doesn't mean flimsy. Some of them cost in the millions. They're still skilled amateurs on pleasure boats.

The point is that something that was impossible for 5 centuries is now possible for a skilled amateur captain and crew. A single season transit of the NWP.



In that sense, yes, they are amateurs. But they're hardly amateurs in the sense that matters, competence, which is how I took Phydeaux's statement. To many boaters are weekend warriors.



_____________________________

“We all know it’s going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money.” - Jim Cramer, CNBC

“Those who ‘abjure’ violence can only do so because others are committing violence on their behalf.” - George Orwell

(in reply to Hillwilliam)
Profile   Post #: 126
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 12:59:05 PM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline 		Yeah, how else do you take amatuers? Like guys that know how to fish, lets say...........and actually catch them day in and out? Or people who are expert at painting fingernails, who have never saw a dime of it.

Geez, what would happen to climate change if it were only guys in a 12 foot boomalum canoe with the old lady bitching in the front and the pomeranian peering into the water and shivering uncontrollably?

Would that be more or less evidence?

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Profile   Post #: 127
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 1:04:36 PM   
Hillwilliam


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


In that sense, yes, they are amateurs. But they're hardly amateurs in the sense that matters, competence, which is how I took Phydeaux's statement. To many boaters are weekend warriors.



I'm an amateur fisherman in the sense that I don't guide or fish for pay (I have for free many times for out of state friends or clients who were looking for homes in the area in a borrowed drift boat)

Typically, at the end of the day afloat down the river, I have outperformed the guides.




I can drive a #24 midge 45' into a stiff wind and lay it on a fish's nose but I'm still an amateur.

_____________________________

Kinkier than a cheap garden hose.

Whoever said "Religion is the opiate of the masses" never heard Right Wing talk radio.

Don't blame me, I voted for Gary Johnson.

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Profile   Post #: 128
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 1:07:58 PM   
epiphiny43


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Joined: 10/20/2006
Status: offline 		http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23964372
"Esa's Cryosat mission observes continuing Arctic winter ice decline"
"The volume of sea ice in the Arctic hit a new low this past winter, according to observations from the European Space Agency's (Esa) Cryosat mission.

During March/April - the time of year when marine floes are at their thickest - the radar spacecraft recorded just under 15,000 cu km of ice.

In its three years of full operations, Cryosat has witnessed a continuing shrinkage of winter ice volume.

It underlines, say scientists, the long-term decline of the floes.

Thirty years ago, there were perhaps 30,000 cu km at the height of winter.". . . Includes video computer animation of ice variation since Cryostat launched.

Related Stories (BBC News site)

Antarctic flood produces 'ice crater'
Cryosat observes big Arctic ice loss
Sea-level rise finally quantified

(in reply to Yachtie)
Profile   Post #: 129
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 1:08:55 PM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline 		And I have yet to have it explained, because it needs explaining. Who gives a fuck about their status, it is not germaine in any way shape or form. If it is the goddamn US or Russian Navy, or seals in 2 man rafts, what is the fucking difference?

This is red herring lunacy.

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Profile   Post #: 130
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 1:11:25 PM   
Yachtie


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

Yeah, how else do you take amatuers? Like guys that know how to fish, lets say...........and actually catch them day in and out? Or people who are expert at painting fingernails, who have never saw a dime of it.

Geez, what would happen to climate change if it were only guys in a 12 foot boomalum canoe with the old lady bitching in the front and the pomeranian peering into the water and shivering uncontrollably?

Would that be more or less evidence?



Phydeaux stated, "it isn't routine, it isn't amateurs". I took that to mean that such a passage, being far from anything normal, requires more than amateurish boaters. I got no indication that he was referring to the sailors as being (paid) professionals.

_____________________________

“We all know it’s going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money.” - Jim Cramer, CNBC

“Those who ‘abjure’ violence can only do so because others are committing violence on their behalf.” - George Orwell

(in reply to mnottertail)
Profile   Post #: 131
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 1:12:51 PM   
Hillwilliam


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quote:

ORIGINAL: epiphiny43

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23964372
"Esa's Cryosat mission observes continuing Arctic winter ice decline"
"The volume of sea ice in the Arctic hit a new low this past winter, according to observations from the European Space Agency's (Esa) Cryosat mission.

During March/April - the time of year when marine floes are at their thickest - the radar spacecraft recorded just under 15,000 cu km of ice.

In its three years of full operations, Cryosat has witnessed a continuing shrinkage of winter ice volume.

It underlines, say scientists, the long-term decline of the floes.

Thirty years ago, there were perhaps 30,000 cu km at the height of winter.". . . Includes video computer animation of ice variation since Cryostat launched.

Related Stories (BBC News site)

Antarctic flood produces 'ice crater'
Cryosat observes big Arctic ice loss
Sea-level rise finally quantified

The only problem with that is that sat has only been measuring a few years (see, I'm being a skeptic) and they don't have REALLY good historical data.
One prob that the sat is pointing out is the decline in the older multi year ice that is quite thick. there has been a lot of loss of that over the years.

That's OK kids. Keep your heads in the sand and the Russkies will beat us out again as they already have a claim ready to be heard at the UN to expand their EEZ well into the arctic ocean. There's a lot of mineral wealth up there. We'll just deny it will ever be reachable and have our economic ass get kicked by the bear.

_____________________________

Kinkier than a cheap garden hose.

Whoever said "Religion is the opiate of the masses" never heard Right Wing talk radio.

Don't blame me, I voted for Gary Johnson.

(in reply to epiphiny43)
Profile   Post #: 132
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 1:14:13 PM   
Yachtie


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Joined: 1/18/2012
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam


quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


In that sense, yes, they are amateurs. But they're hardly amateurs in the sense that matters, competence, which is how I took Phydeaux's statement. To many boaters are weekend warriors.



I'm an amateur fisherman in the sense that I don't guide or fish for pay (I have for free many times for out of state friends or clients who were looking for homes in the area in a borrowed drift boat)

Typically, at the end of the day afloat down the river, I have outperformed the guides.

I can drive a #24 midge 45' into a stiff wind and lay it on a fish's nose but I'm still an amateur.



Then I might say you are an expert fisherman, being to the other extreme of one who is an amateur.



_____________________________

“We all know it’s going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money.” - Jim Cramer, CNBC

“Those who ‘abjure’ violence can only do so because others are committing violence on their behalf.” - George Orwell

(in reply to Hillwilliam)
Profile   Post #: 133
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 1:15:43 PM   
Hillwilliam


Posts: 19394
Joined: 8/27/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam


quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


In that sense, yes, they are amateurs. But they're hardly amateurs in the sense that matters, competence, which is how I took Phydeaux's statement. To many boaters are weekend warriors.



I'm an amateur fisherman in the sense that I don't guide or fish for pay (I have for free many times for out of state friends or clients who were looking for homes in the area in a borrowed drift boat)

Typically, at the end of the day afloat down the river, I have outperformed the guides.

I can drive a #24 midge 45' into a stiff wind and lay it on a fish's nose but I'm still an amateur.



Then I might say you are an expert fisherman, being to the other extreme of one who is an amateur.



by Webster's definition, I'm an amateur as I don't do it for pay. Hell, I don't even have any Purdy patches on my jacket.

Seriously, if you got the call to crew on a sailing yacht next summer doing the NWP, would you?

_____________________________

Kinkier than a cheap garden hose.

Whoever said "Religion is the opiate of the masses" never heard Right Wing talk radio.

Don't blame me, I voted for Gary Johnson.

(in reply to Yachtie)
Profile   Post #: 134
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 1:20:44 PM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

Yeah, how else do you take amatuers? Like guys that know how to fish, lets say...........and actually catch them day in and out? Or people who are expert at painting fingernails, who have never saw a dime of it.

Geez, what would happen to climate change if it were only guys in a 12 foot boomalum canoe with the old lady bitching in the front and the pomeranian peering into the water and shivering uncontrollably?

Would that be more or less evidence?



Phydeaux stated, "it isn't routine, it isn't amateurs". I took that to mean that such a passage, being far from anything normal, requires more than amateurish boaters. I got no indication that he was referring to the sailors as being (paid) professionals.


Nobody is gonna yo ho ho the grand banks successfully, or get out of egg harbor without some idea of which is standing and which is running, let alone ocean crossings. I didn't expect their experience to be a clawfoot bathtub full of rubber duckies in a walkup shotgun out of Brooklyn, nor did anyone else, I just don't see any connection to the conversation. So far the majority of scientists are not proven skeptical, but color me skeptical on the level of expertise of the yo ho hoers having some refutable proof regarding climate change that is empirical and unusual prima facie.



< Message edited by mnottertail -- 9/11/2013 1:50:07 PM >

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Profile   Post #: 135
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 1:23:51 PM   
Yachtie


Posts: 3593
Joined: 1/18/2012
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam


quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam


quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


In that sense, yes, they are amateurs. But they're hardly amateurs in the sense that matters, competence, which is how I took Phydeaux's statement. To many boaters are weekend warriors.



I'm an amateur fisherman in the sense that I don't guide or fish for pay (I have for free many times for out of state friends or clients who were looking for homes in the area in a borrowed drift boat)

Typically, at the end of the day afloat down the river, I have outperformed the guides.

I can drive a #24 midge 45' into a stiff wind and lay it on a fish's nose but I'm still an amateur.



Then I might say you are an expert fisherman, being to the other extreme of one who is an amateur.



by Webster's definition, I'm an amateur as I don't do it for pay. Hell, I don't even have any Purdy patches on my jacket.

Seriously, if you got the call to crew on a sailing yacht next summer doing the NWP, would you?



Hell yes! I'd take my own boat except that it would cost me mega bucks, which I don't have, in hull work to do it. Better not so far north for me. Now a friends 34' steel hull, built to LLoyds specs, would be fantastic. She is one sweet boat. Little small but could handle four.

Also, Websters says of amateur - a person who does something poorly : a person who is not skillful at a job or other activity

_____________________________

“We all know it’s going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money.” - Jim Cramer, CNBC

“Those who ‘abjure’ violence can only do so because others are committing violence on their behalf.” - George Orwell

(in reply to Hillwilliam)
Profile   Post #: 136
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 1:30:28 PM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline 		How about a sheet clad viking? you can bet were william f. buckley alive, he would be going thru to and fro and ghoulishly reveling in it.

_____________________________

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Profile   Post #: 137
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 1:37:28 PM   
Hillwilliam


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie



Hell yes! I'd take my own boat except that it would cost me mega bucks, which I don't have, in hull work to do it. Better not so far north for me. Now a friends 34' steel hull, built to LLoyds specs, would be fantastic. She is one sweet boat. Little small but could handle four.

Also, Websters says of amateur - a person who does something poorly : a person who is not skillful at a job or other activity

You don't do a trip like that unless you're wealthy as hell. Fewer people are doing the NWP than Everest if you think about it as it's probably more expensive even though it's a hell of a lot safer.

Here's what I found on "amateur"

am·a·teur


/ˈamətər,-ˌtər,-ˌCHo͝or,-CHər/


noun

noun: amateur; plural noun: amateurs
1. a person who engages in a pursuit, esp. a sport, on an unpaid basis.


synonyms: nonprofessional, nonspecialist, layman, layperson;
"the crew were all amateurs"



antonyms: professional a

adjective: amateur
1. engaging or engaged in without payment; nonprofessional.


"an amateur archaeologist"



Personally, I'm waiting for someone that wants me along on an expedition after Taimen in Siberia/Kamchatka (That's a 5' long 100# trout)

_____________________________

Kinkier than a cheap garden hose.

Whoever said "Religion is the opiate of the masses" never heard Right Wing talk radio.

Don't blame me, I voted for Gary Johnson.

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Profile   Post #: 138
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 1:41:16 PM   
Yachtie


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

How about a sheet clad viking? you can bet were william f. buckley alive, he would be going thru to and fro and ghoulishly reveling in it.



Yep, and with a few bottles of Dom

_____________________________

“We all know it’s going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money.” - Jim Cramer, CNBC

“Those who ‘abjure’ violence can only do so because others are committing violence on their behalf.” - George Orwell

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Profile   Post #: 139
RE: Majority of Scientists skeptical of climate crisis - 9/11/2013 1:42:24 PM   
Hillwilliam


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

How about a sheet clad viking? you can bet were william f. buckley alive, he would be going thru to and fro and ghoulishly reveling in it.



Yep, and with a few bottles of Dom

Not a damn thing wrong with that.

_____________________________

Kinkier than a cheap garden hose.

Whoever said "Religion is the opiate of the masses" never heard Right Wing talk radio.

Don't blame me, I voted for Gary Johnson.

(in reply to Yachtie)
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